What the Audience Research Tells us About how to Build Consumer Demand for Renewables

Phase II ConferenceAmerican Council on Renewable EnergyDecember 8, 2010

What the Audience Research Tells us About how

to Build Consumer Demand for Renewables

Justin Rolfe-Redding, M.A.jrolfere@gmu.edu

Edward Maibach, MPH, Ph.D.emaibach@gmu.edu

Social Marketing

What We Do

Road MapScope What we will cover

Policy Support Role of Knowledge

Consumer Support Role of Norms

Audience Segmentation Analysis

The “Value-Action” Gap

Why Do People Say One Thing and Do Another?

(Klick & Smith, 2010)

Strong and Consistent Majorities Support Renewable Energy

It’s Not Even a Very Partisan Issue

Democrat Independent Republican0%

50%

100%

81.2%

55.8%40.1%

4.4%

24.6%

36.4%

14.4% 19.6% 23.5%

Don't know

No

Yes

Belief in Global Warming by Party Identification – January 2010

Source: Yale & George Mason, 2010

Compare that with Climate Change

And yet…..

How optimistic are we feeling about RE?

Two Questions:

What Determines Strong Policy Support?

What Makes People Willing to Pay for Renewable Energy?

Support for RE Policies

What Factors Influence that Support?

Attitude Support for Wind is Weak Because it is Based on Limited

Knowledge

“The public’s understanding of wind power is relatively poor.”

–Klick & Smith, 2010

Bottom line: People don’t appreciate the Downsides of Wind

(Klick & Smith, 2010)

Experiment

Bottom line: A little knowledge is a dangerous thing

Ask about RE support before and after exposure to more arguments

Result After reading arguments for and against wind, wind lost support

AnalysisConcerns about cost, property

values crowded out climate change as a gender gap opened

(Klick & Smith, 2010)

What’s a Possible Solution?

Inoculation Theory, perhaps

Present your audience with a weakened version of counterarguments

Show them refutations, or help them come up with their own

(McGuire, 1964)

Inoculation Theory

This blanket “immunity” extends to other counter

arguments, too

“[A]cross a sample of 41 published and unpublished research reports involving over 10,000 participants, inoculation treatments are more effective than no-treatment controls or supportive treatments in fostering resistance to attitude change.”

(Banas & Rains, 2010, p.302)

RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Provide publics with the basics on RE

2. Engage the opposition. Coach people through.

Willingness to Pay

What Makes People Put their Money where their Mouths Are?

Which makes sense in an odd way…

Americans admit they won’t volunteer to pay for their own

green energy

Surveys of ratepayers consistently show they prefer collective,

mandatory payment schemes for RE

(Farhar, 1999; Decision Researhc, 1992; Farhar & Coburn, 1999; Guild et al., 2003; Sloan & Taddune, 1999; ECAP, 1998; Ferguson, 1999)

This could be why there is a general gap between attitudes

and what people actually contribute

The Free Rider ProblemWe benefit from clean air,

even if we drive a Hummer

(Smith &Haugtvedt, 1995; Weiner & Doescher, 1991)

Experiment

Bottom line: People don’t like to go it alone

Presented four RE surcharge options

(government? X Voluntary?)

Result The private, mandatory policy was most “purchased”

AnalysisCollective preference

(“participation expectations”); Dislike of government

(Wiser, 2007)

One

The Study’s Options

Two

(Wiser, 2007)

What else predicted willingness to pay?

Belief that others (both general public and friends and family) would also pay

Women prefer government and collective payment more than men

Voluntary surcharge preferred by those not supporting RE, distrust government

Leverage Social Influence in Messages

Carefully target policies to publics

What are Possible Solutions?

(Moscovici, 1976)

Social Influence

“Everyone is doing it.”

Social Norms

Social Proof

“It’s expected for everyone to do it.”

And these arguments help to counter perceptions of a

free-rider problem

Fostering participation expectations

RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Push policies such as Renewable Portfolio Standards; or others as appropriate to audience

2. Integrate social influence into messages. Emphasize the growth.

Who are your most important audiences?

Source: Yale & George Mason, June 2010

Global Warming’s Six Americas

Faces of Global Warming’s Six Americas

Alarmed Alice Alice is completely sure global warming is happening, she believes it is human caused, and she feels personally threatened by it. She also believes that people around the world are already being harmed by it, or will soon be.

Alice is only modestly more likely than average to be taking steps to reduce her energy use, but she is far more likely than average to use her purchasing power - and her voice as a citizen - to advocate for change. Alice supports a wide range of policy responses to address global warming.

Concerned ClaudiaClaudia is very sure global warming is happening, and she believes it is human causes, but she feels less personally threatened by it than Alice. She believes that global warming will begin to harm people around the world 10+ years from now.

Claudia is average in terms of taking measures to reduce her energy consumption, but well above average in terms of using her purchasing power to advocate for change. Claudia supports aggressive government policies, but is unlikely to contact her elected officials to say so.

Cautious Carl Carl is only somewhat sure that global warming is happening, and he is equally likely to see it as human caused or not. He sees global warming as a more distant threat – primarily a threat to other people – that won’t begin to hurt people around the world for another 25 - 50 years.

Carl is taking average steps to reduce his energy consumption, but isn’t involved in addressing global warming in other ways. He is, however, modestly supportive of a range of proposed policies.

Disengaged DianeDiane thinks global warming may be happening, but she’s not at all sure. She’s given it very little thought, doesn’t consider it personally important, and doesn’t feel she knows anything about it.

Diane has done relatively little to reduce her use of energy at home, but because she has lower than average income she is more likely than average not to rely on her own car.

Despite her low level of personal concern, Diane is more supportive than Carl of mounting a national response to global warming.

Doubtful DavidDavid says he doesn’t know if real or not, but if it is, he’s pretty sure it isn’t human-caused. David certainly isn’t worried about it; he sees global warming as a very distant threat that won’t harm people for at least another 100 years.

David isn’t in favor of a national response to global warming per se, but he is modestly in favor of a range of energy-saving policy measures, and is active in improving energy-efficiency in his home.

Dismissive DanDan simply does not believe that global warming is happening – or that it’s in God’s hands - and he believes that many scientists share his views. Needless to say, Dan doesn’t support any form of government action against global warming.

Although vigorously opposed to government action on global warming, he himself is quite active in making energy-efficient improvements to his home.

Source: Yale & George Mason, June 2010

“If you could ask an expert on global warming one question, which question would you ask?”

What can the US do to reduce global warming?

What harm will global warming cause?

How do you know that global warming is occurring?

Source: Yale & George Mason, 2008

Activate the Alarmed and Concerned

Convince the Cautions and Disengaged

Reach out to the Doubtful and Dismissive

Changes Over Time

Source: Yale & George Mason, 2008, 2010

Strongly Oppose

Somewhat Oppose

Somewhat Support

Strongly Support

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Dismissive Doubtful

Disengaged Cautious

Concerned Alarmed

Global Warming’s Six Americas

“Require electric utilities to produce at least 20% of their electricity from wind, solar, or other renewable energy sources,

even if it costs the average household an extra $100 a year.”

Renewable Portfolio Standard

Chi-squared=1458, df=15, p< .01

Global Warming’s Six Americas

“Fund more research into renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power.”

Renewables Research Funding

Chi-squared=1021, df=15, p< .01

Strongly Oppose

Somewhat Oppose

Somewhat Support

Strongly Support

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

DismissiveDoubtfulDisengagedCautious ConcernedAlarmed

Global Warming’s Six Americas

“Provide tax rebates for people who purchase energy-efficient vehicles or solar panels.”

Solar Tax Break

Chi-squared=966, df=15, p< .01

Strongly Oppose

Somewhat Oppose

Somewhat Support

Strongly Support

0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00%

DismissiveDoubtfulDisengagedCautious #REF!Alarmed

Global Warming’s Six Americas

Is Solar Clean?

Alarmed Concerned Cautious Disengaged Doubtful Dismissive

Global Warming’s Six Americas

Is Wind Clean?

Alarmed Concerned Cautious Disengaged Doubtful Dismissive

RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Aggressively target all audiences. RE is the vanguard of environmental messaging

for skeptical publics.

2. Identify unique needs of publics for solution– information– and values–oriented messages.

OVERALL RECOMMENDATIONS

Mindset Begin and end with your audiences

Plan Consider their unique strengths and deficits

Action Connect through appropriate messages

And messengers!

Simple clear messages, repeated often,

by a variety of trusted sources.

Maibach’s formula for communication impact

Thank You!

Justin Rolfe-Redding, M.A.jrolfere@gmu.edu

Edward Maibach, MPH, Ph.D.emaibach@gmu.edu

All 4C reports can be downloaded at:

Climatechangecommunication.org

Justin Rolfe-Redding, M.A.jrolfere@gmu.edu

Edward Maibach, MPH, Ph.D.emaibach@gmu.edu

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