Weekly Review and Outlook. Weekly Review week commencing 14/12/15.

Weekly Review and Outlook

Weekly Reviewweek commencing 14/12/15

What is the risk position?Look after GBPNZD.Sell EUR.CAD vs oil.Tech trades – AUDUSD and GBPJPY.Fed rate decision.BoJ rate decision. Trading may be over for 2015.

Last Week’s Key Themes

What is the risk position?Look after GBPNZD.Sell EUR.CAD vs oil.Tech trades – AUDUSD and GBPJPY.Fed rate decision.BoJ rate decision. Trading may be over for 2015.

Last Week’s Key Themes

GBPNZD D1

entry

What is the risk position?Look after GBPNZD.Sell EUR.CAD vs oil.Tech trades – AUDUSD and GBPJPY.Fed rate decision.BoJ rate decision. Trading may be over for 2015.

Last Week’s Key Themes

EURUSD D1

What is the risk position?Look after GBPNZD.Sell EUR.CAD vs oil.Tech trades – AUDUSD and GBPJPY.Fed rate decision.BoJ rate decision. Trading may be over for 2015.

Last Week’s Key Themes

WTI D1

CADX D1

Jan 2014 to date

GBPCAD D1

entry

stop

What is the risk position?Look after GBPNZD.Sell EUR.CAD vs oil.Tech trades – AUDUSD and GBPJPY.Fed rate decision.BoJ rate decision. Trading may be over for 2015.

Last Week’s Key Themes

AUDUSD D1

GBPJPY D1

What is the risk position?Look after GBPNZD.Sell EUR.CAD vs oil.Tech trades – AUDUSD and GBPJPY.Fed rate decision.BoJ rate decision. Trading may be over for 2015.

Last Week’s Key Themes

What is the risk position?Look after GBPNZD.Sell EUR.CAD vs oil.Tech trades – AUDUSD and GBPJPY.Fed rate decision.BoJ rate decision. Trading may be over for 2015.

Last Week’s Key Themes

Weekly Review

Weekly Outlookweek commencing 21/12/15

This Week’s News Events

Currency SummaryUSDThe USD is the strongest currency in the long term. Fed holds door open for December hike. Markets say 79% chance of hike in Dec. Rate rise in December and reasonably bullish statement have strengthened the USD. EURBearish due to QE. Portugal hovering like a bad smell. Draghi disappoints markets hugely on 3/12. Euro surges. Still fundamentally weak, but positive sentiment seen since Draghi’s announcement.

GBPStrong. Rate increase expected mid 2016. GBP gets caught up in USD weakness and is sold off. Carney says wage growth insufficient to propel inflation to 2%. Lower inflation now forecast by BoE. Institutions see rate hike delay from Q1 to Q3 2016. Focus still on non-existent wage growth. Wage growth miss is bad news.

NZDWeak. More rate reductions expected. RBNZ say recent NZD appreciation dampening inflation, making hike more likely. Markets say 50% chance of rate reduction in Dec. RBNZ say new reduced rate should be sufficient for monetary policy objectives.

CADWeak. Heavily correlated to WTI crude oil price.

JPYWeak due to massive QE. All eyes on oil price now to bring inflation up to 2% target in H2 2016. Kuroda says current policy sufficient. Now alluding to weakness in CPI.

CHFWeak due to negative interest rates. Swiss central bank often intervenes to weaken the currency. I have never traded this currency and probably never will. SNB re-iterate their view that currency very over-valued. AUDNeutral. Central bank dovish at Aug rate announcement seeing no need for more rate reduction. RBA’s Stevens remains confident all is on track. Stevens remains neutral but says any change will be to reduce interest rates.Great employment nos in Nov lessen any chance of rate reduction.

Neutral

Look after open trades.Christmas shut-down.

This Week’s Key Themes