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2019 CCIM
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
OUTLOOK CONFERENCE
Wednesday, January 16, 2019
Coral Gables Country Club
“Evolving Trends in CRE: Can It Be Different This Time?”
WELCOME FROM OUR SPONSORS
Grand Sponsor
Platinum Sponsor
Gold Sponsors
Silver Sponsors
Bronze Sponsors
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference3
Florida CCIM Chapter
Miami-Dade/Monroe District
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference
Table of Contents
Today’s Program 5
Speakers’ Biographies 6, 7, 8
Panel Speakers - Development Trends / Opportunity Zones 9
2019 CCIM Florida Chapter Education Schedule 11
CCIM Miami-Dade/Monroe District Board 13
CCIM Course Scholarship Program 16
CCIM Miami-Dade/Monroe District Membership 18, 19, 20
Important PPT Slides
2019 Economic Forecast – K.C. Conway 24
Industrial Market – Stephanie A. Rodriguez 26
Retail Market – Josh Rodstein 28
Capital Market – Andrea Molina 30
Multifamily Market – Calum Weaver 32
Office Market – Maria G. Juncadella, SIOR, CCIM, MBA 34
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 4
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference5
2019 CCIM Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference Program
RegistrationMitash Kripalani, CCIM, President of Miami-Dade / Monroe District
Colliers International South Florida, LLC
Buffet Breakfast Coral Gables Country Club
Presentation of Colors
Pledge of Allegiance
National Anthem
Coral Gables High School JROTC Cadets
Welcome Announcements
Sponsor Recognition
Grand Sponsor Welcome
Platinum Sponsor Welcome
Host Introductions
Introduction of Keynote Speaker
Maria Agon McCarthy, CCIM, Vice President CCIM Miami District, Comreal
Mitash Kripalani, CCIM, President of Miami-Dade / Monroe District, Colliers
International South Florida, LLC
Gary Fitzgerald EVP , City National Bank
Bill Papagno, Hunt Companies
Stephen Rigl, CCIM, Immediate Past President, Binswanger-Gateway Partnership
Eddie Blanton, CCIM, President Elect for CCIM Institute (National) - Tradd
Commercial, Charlotte, NC
2019 Economy Forecast
K.C. Conway, MAI, CRE, CCIM Institute Chief Economist and
Director of Research and Corporate Engagement at the Alabama Center for Real
Estate (ACRE)
Industrial Market Stephanie Rodriguez, Duke Realty
Retail Market Josh Rodstein, NAI Miami
BREAK Networking
Capital Market Andrea Molina, Aztec Group
Multifamily Market Calum Weaver, Cushman & Wakefield
Office Market Maria Juncadella, Fairchild Partners
BREAK Networking
Panel Discussion
New Development Trends
in Miami
Louis P. Archambault, Saul Ewing Arnstein & Lehr LLP , Moderator
Kobi Karp, KOBI KARP Architecture & Interior Design
Gerard Yetming , Colliers International
Ryan Shear, Property Markets Group
Opportunity Zones Adam Yormack, Escalante Yormack Law
Closing Remarks/RaffleMitash Kripalani, CCIM, President of Miami-Dade / Monroe District,
Colliers International South Florida, LLC
Malbelys Gonzalez, CCIM Miami District Secretary, BGI Capital
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 6
TODAY’S SPEAKERS
K.C. Conway, MAI, CRE
2019 Economy Forecast
CCIM Institute Chief Economist Kiernan “K.C.” Conway is the director of research and corporate engagement at the Alabama Center for Real Estate (ACRE) housed within the University of Alabama’s Culverhouse College of Commerce. Conway is a frequent speaker for the Federal Reserve, FDIC, FHLB, state bank commissioners, academic groups, professional organizations, and industry associations. He previously served as chief economist for Colliers International – US. In addition to being a frequent lecturer at international conferences, Conway has consulted with major governmental agencies, most notably briefing former
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Board of Governors on the burgeoning subprime lending and housing crisis and its impact on the commercial real estate industry.
Stephen R. Rigl, CCIM, SIOR
Host
Stephen R. Rigl, SIOR, CCIM is Senior Director at Binswanger-Gateway Partnership and has been active in the commercial real estate industry since 1984. He is currently Vice President of Finance for the Florida CCIM Chapter and immediate past president of Miami Dade/Monroe CCIM district. Mr. Rigl is the chair of the 2019 CCIM Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference and was for the 2018 Outlook Conference as well.
His real estate career experience includes numerous office lease transactions on behalf of both property owners and tenants, investment property sales and purchases for clients including
industrial and multifamily properties, as well has holding ownership interests in various real estate projects.
In addition to holding the CCIM designation, Mr. Rigl holds the SIOR designation from the Society of Industrial and Office Realtors. He is currently serving on the Board of Governors for Miami Commercial, the commercial real estate section of the Miami Association of Realtors and is a mentor for the Florida International University Alumni Association.
Mitash Kripalani, CCIM
Co-Host
An active commercial real estate professional and vice president of Colliers International South Florida, Mitash Kripalani, CCIM serves as the 2019 President of the Miami Dade/Monroe District of the Florida CCIM Chapter. Kripalani has been a member of the CCIM chapter since 2014 and has been actively involved on the Board, also previously serving as Education Chairman for the Miami Dade district.
As a Vice President in the Miami office of Colliers International South Florida. A key member of Colliers International South Florida’s capital markets team, Kripalani brings more than
a decade of industry experience. At Colliers, his team services the core South Florida markets, specializing in capital markets with a focus on multifamily, land deals and investment sales.
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference7
The PowerPoints from today’s presentations will be available
on the CCIM Miami-Dade/Monroe District website at
www.flccim.com on Monday morning.
Stephanie A. Rodriguez Industrial Market
As Vice President of Leasing, Stephanie is responsible for leasing 7.5 million square feet of industrial properties in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties. Prior to her current position, Stephanie spent three years as Vice President of Asset Management and Customer Service, responsible for the overall operation of the company’s entire South Florida portfolio, including asset management, supervision of personnel, communication, and client retention functions.
Prior to joining Duke Realty, Stephanie was Real Estate Manager and Associate Director for CB Richard Ellis and Property Manager for Trammell Crow, Glenborough Realty Trust, and Washington Real Estate Investment Trust.
TODAY’S SPEAKERS
Josh Rodstein
Retail Market
Josh has over 30 years of experience in commercial real estate. His areas of concentration is multi-fold; he specializes in the leasing, sales, and development of retail and office properties. Representing local and national property owners as their Landlord representative or representing national or regional tenants as their exclusive broker selecting new locations is the basis of Josh’s commercial real estate experience. He has been involved in the sale of developed retail properties and office buildings, as well as, been involved with over 2,000,000 square feet of commercial transactions.
Andrea Molina
Capital Market
Andrea Molina is a Director at Aztec Group, a boutique firm specializing in Investment Banking for the Real Estate industry. Molina works closely with her clients to provide strategic capital solutions for acquisitions, redevelopment, construction, refinance, joint ventures, and programmatic partnerships. Molina brings over a decade of commercial real estate experience to the Aztec Group team. Her clients include emerging sponsors of private real estate as well as well-seasoned owner/operator/developer teams seeking recapitalization and access to programmatic capital.
Ms. Molina most recently served as a Director at a major South Florida based institution with a portfolio in excess of $1 billion where she was responsible for leading all financing and equity executions, as well as portfolio oversight including acquisitions, dispositions, and recapitalization initiatives. Prior to that, Molina was a Senior Analyst with CBRE’s National Retail Partners team based in Miami, where she underwrote the investment sale of over 60 commercial properties, ranging in transaction size from $6 million to $425 million.
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 8
TODAY’S SPEAKERS
Maria G. Juncadella, SIOR, CCIM, MBA
Office Market
Maria Juncadella is Managing Principal of Fairchild Partners, one of South Florida’s top-rated commercial real estate firms. As co-qualifying broker, she has been involved in all aspects of management and brokerage activities since 2005 when she and her husband, Jose I. Juncadella, founded the firm. As a real estate advisor, Maria specializes in the sale and leasing of commercial properties in Miami-Dade’s most active submarkets.
In 2016, Maria spearheaded over ten million dollars in lease transactions, accounting for 74,000 of the 600,000 sq. ft. Downtown Doral office park. She participated in the broker
team that achieved a record sale price on a two-acre parcel in Miami’s Edgewater district. As lead broker at five-building Kendall Summit, she has leased 174,000 sq. ft. and achieved a 33% rate increase during the three years Fairchild has had the listing. In 2015, Maria had an active role in Baptist Health South Florida’s land purchase for a build-to-suit distribution center.
Maria is actively involved in multiple office and medical office lease transactions in Coconut Grove, Coral Gables, South Miami, Kendall and Doral. She represents several new-to-market retail tenants.
Maria was 2016 President of the Realtors Commercial Alliance (RCA Miami); its membership reached 2,000-plus commercial agents under her leadership. She has served on the Miami Association of Realtors’ Board of Governors since 2013.
Calum Weaver
Multifamily Market
Calum is an Executive Managing Director for Cushman & Wakefield’s Multifamily Group in Florida. He leads the firms private capital group which is a team dedicated to serving the needs of private capital investors throughout South Florida. Calum has sold over 120 apartment properties totalling over $1 billion on behalf of his clients. Transaction experience includes all multifamily asset classes, tax-exempt bond deals, fractured condominiums, and land sales.
Calum is part of a 15 person team that provides a fully integrated platform for selling and financing multifamily properties. Based in Miami and Ft. Lauderdale, the Cushman &
Wakefield team has completed in excess of $20 billion in transactions, representing over 900 apartment buildings and 250,000 units throughout South Florida. The Cushman & Wakefield Multifamily team is consistently ranked #1 in multifamily sales in South Florida.
5 DRAWINGS!!!At the conclusion of today’s conference, there will be five drawings to give away:
FIVE $100 Gift CardsYou must be present to win!
GOOD LUCK!!! (Speakers, vendors and members of the CCIM Miami Board of Directors are not eligible.)
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference9
Louis P. ArchambaultSaul Ewing Arnstein &
Lehr LLP
Moderator
PANEL DISCUSSION NEW DEVELOPMENT TRENDS
IN MIAMI
Ryan ShearProperty Markets
Group
Kobi KarpKOBI KARP
Architecture &
Interior Design
Gerald YetmingColliers
International
The Opportunity Zones program provides a tax incentive for investors to re-invest their
unrealized captial gains in Opportunity Funds that are dedicated to investing into Opportunity
Zones. About 8,700 Opportunity Zones have been indentified throughout the country.
Adam YormakPartner
Escalante Yormack Law
OPPORTUNITY ZONES
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 10
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2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference11
2019 Education Schedule
Dates Class District Location
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Feb. 25-29 CI-103 Central Orlando
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2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 12
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2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference13
Malbelys Gonzalez MSIRE Secretary
BGI Capital
786.496.5685 mgonzalez@bgicg.com
Florida CCIM Miami-Dade / Monroe District
2019 Board of Directors
John Dohm, CCIM
Infinity Commercial Real Estate/Florida Transatlantic Holdings, LLC.
954.557.3646
john@jdohm.com
John C. Lonardo, CCIM
ComReal Miami - Gables, LLC
305.213.4050
jlonardo@comreal.com
Louis P. Archambault, Esq.
Arnstein & Lehr, LLP
305.428.4510
lpa@arnstein.com
Stephen R. Rigl
CCIM Past President
Binswanger-Gareway
Partnership
305.546.6933srigl@gatewaycoc.com
Ed L. Boen, CCIM
Kerdyk Real Estate
305.799.6693
EdLBoen@gmail.com
Isabel Fine, CCIM
Real Miami Commercial Real Estate, LLC
305.785.4758
isabel@realmiamicommercial.com
Mitash Kripalani
CCIMPresident
Colliers International
South Florida, LLC
786.271.5598Mitash.kripalani@colliers.com
Michael D Hinton
CCIMTreasurer
Apex Capital Realty
305.970.0262michael@apexcapitalrealty.com
Jonathan C. Lay CCIM, MSIRE, MSF
Fairchild Partners / Commercial
Real Estate Services
786.390.5927
jlay@fairchildpartners.com
Maria Agon McCarthy
CCIMVice President
ComReal Miami-Gables, LLC.
305.775.0982magonmccarthy@comreal.com
Maruta (Marti) Mang, SVP
City National Bank
305.476.6272
Maruta.Mang@citynational.com
Simona Kogan
Finite Real Estate Corporation
954.647.0910
simona@finiterealestate.com
Andres Navarrete
Aboslut Financial Resources
786.439.8921
Andy@absolutfinancial.com
Omar Ojeda
Professional Bank
786.483.1742
oojeda@professionalbankfl.com
Elias G. Patsalos, CCIM Casal Group
305.804.9154
epatsalos@casal.com
Britt J. Rosen, CCIM
Brittex Appraisal Services, Inc.
305.663.7334
britt@brittexusa.com
Carlos Rodriguez Jr.
Waronker & Rosen, Inc.
786.449.4670
crodriguezjr@outlook.com
Jorge Napoles, CCIM
Sperry Commercial Global Affiliates786.258.3127
jorge.napoles@sperrycga.com
Rafael Romero, CCIM
JLL
305.767.5294
rromerore@gmail.com
Frank Rodriguez Melo, CCIM
Cedano Real Estate
305.814.0137
melo@cedanocre.com
Jose Maria Serrano, CCIM
New Miami Realty
305.635.5000
jserrano@newmiamirealty.com
Yulia VargasVETA Group | AG Commercial
Real Estate Advisors
786.780.3344
yulia@veta.group
Edward Schmidt, CCIM
NAI Miami
786.260.0401
eschmidt@naimiami.com
Doris Suttin
doris b. suttin realty, inc.
305.308.7061
DBSuttin98@gmail.com
Paul L. White, CCIM
KW Commercial
305.270.0710
paulwhite@plwa.biz
Joshua Young, Esq.Raisal
305.505.5079
josh@raisal.com
Danny Zelonker
Real Miami Commercial Real Estate
305.542.0189
danny@realmiamicommercial.com
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 14
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2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 16
CCIM Core Course Scholarship Program
FLORIDA CCIM CHAPTER
The Florida CCIM Chapter believes strongly in the value of the CCIM designation.
Granting scholarships assists those qualified to start, or continue the CCIM program.
The CCIM Florida Chapter and Miami-Dade/Monroe District offers the following
scholarships for any CI Core Course, CI101, CI102, CI103, CI104, and may be
attended at any location in Florida or the U.S.
1. CCIM Education Foundation Scholarship – Paul L. White Endowed Scholarship:
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2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference17
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2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 18
Florida CCIM Miami-Dade / Monroe District
Membership List
Display Name Company City
Maria Agon McCarthy, CCIM ComReal Miami-Gables, LLC. Coral Gables
Mark Alexander, CCIM Medical Office Brokerage Miami
Rolando Alvarez, CCIM Coldwell Banker Commercial NRT Coral Gables
David Amiel, CCIM Invest Capital Group Aventura
Juan V. Antunez, CCIM The Keyes Company Miami
Clara E. Arango ACE International Realty Miami
Louis Paul Archambault Saul, Ewing, Arnstein & Lehr, LLP Miami
Kenneth Baboun BGI Capital Miami
David G. Baitinger Apex Capital Real Estate, LLC Hialeah
Kirenia Balan Balan Realty, Inc. Miami
Justin Barth Windsor Realty Partners Miami
Robert Barthelmess BGI Capital Miami
Lisette Beraja Magasi, LLC Miami
Thomas J. Blazejack, CCIM, MAI Blazejack & Company Pinecrest
Ed L. Boen, CCIM Kerdyk Real Estate Coral Gables
Bette Brown Centerstate Bank, NA Homestead
Brian T. Carter Douglas Elliman Commercial Miami
Henry Castelo Keller Williams Realty Miami
Lea Cerdido, CMP Corevents Coral Gables
Jose Cestero Valbridge Property Advisors Coral Gables
Jacqueline Cruz-Bustillo TotalBank Miami
Salvatore J. Davide Davide Realty, Inc. Miami
Ariel O. Diaz Trajan Investments, Inc. Miami
Carlos A. Diez, MAI, CCIM Capstone Valuation Advisors Miami
John Dohm, SIOR, CCIM Infinity Commercial Real Estate Miami Lakes
Connie Doumenis, CCIM MRG Commercial Group Miami
Agustin Duarte, CCIM RE/MAX 360 Real Estate Coral Gables
Kent Ducote, CCIM Truman & Co Key West
Aran Dunlop NAI Miami Miami
Frank Fernandez CenterState Bank Homestead
Jorge Fernandez-Pla, CCIM KW Commercial Miami
Isabel Fine, CCIM Real Miami Commercial Real Estate, LLC Coral Gables
Eugene Font Apollo Bank Miami
Augusto J. Fonte, CCIM AJF Properties, Inc. Coral Gables
Jim Fried Sandstone Realty Advisors Miami
Jose Garcia KW Coral Gables - Coconut Grove Miami Lakes
Stephen E. Gaunt, CCIM JLL Miami
Eduardo Gesio FBDC Miami
Sandra Goldstein, CCIM Sandra Goldstein Commercial Real Estate Miami
Vladimir F. Golik, CCIM Keller Williams Realty Premier Properties Miami
Rodrigo E. Gomez AG Real Estate Advisors, LLC Miami
Luis Gonzalez CenterState Bank Homestead
Malbelys Gonzalez BGI Capital Miami
Michelle Gonzalez Floridian First Realty Coral Gables
Roberto Gonzalez Gonzalez and Partners CPAs, LLC Coral Gables
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference19
Winston Grace Brokers Real Estate Investment Management Aventura
Laura Graves BrokerNation RE North Miami
Daniel Heisler, CCIM, CPM Adler Realty Services Miami
Douglas Hill American Caribbean Real Estate Key Largo
Michael Hinton, CCIM Apex Capital Realty Miami
Manuel Huerta Bear Finance, LLC Coral Gables
Juan Huice Primetime Realty Group, Inc. Miami Lakes
Elias Jabech Keller Williams Commercial Miami
Doris B. Suttin Doris B. Suttin Realty, Inc. North Miami Beach
Maria G. Juncadella, SIOR, CCIM Fairchild Partners, Inc. Coral Gables
Laura Kefalidis Realty World Executive | Commercial Division Miami
Simona Kogan Finite Real Estate Corporation North Miami
Ronald Kohn, CCIM Kohn Commercial Real Estate, Inc. Miami
Pierre Kopec Archipelago Properties Doral
Matthew Kramer Weinberg Wheeler Miami
Mitash Kripalani, CCIM Colliers International Miami
Jeremy S. Larkin NAI Miami Miami
Gregory J. Laskody, CCIM DISTRICT Realty Advisors Miami
Jonathan Lay, CCIM Fairchild Partners Coral Gables
Krystelle Lay, CCIM Ten-X Miami
Diego Leiva KW Commercial Coral Gables
Neal J. Lipner Miami
LaWanda Loftus First Citizens Bank Coral Gables
John C. Lonardo, CCIM ComReal Miami-Gables, LLC. Coral Gables
Marti Mang TotalBank Miami
Juan M Martinez Metro Consulting & Management, Inc. Miami
Thomas C. Marvin, CCIM Tremont Properties, LLC Miami
John McNally McNally Environmental Law Miami
Steve J. Medwin, SIOR, CCIM Newmark Knight Frank Miami
Louis R. Melara, CCIM Keyes Company/Realtors Homestead
Niko Micin, CCIM AGM Net Lease Miami Beach
Lisa Miller Keller Williams Elite Properties Aventura
Francisca Miranda Keller Williams Coral Gables
Andrea Montejo, CCIM Flagler Global Logistics Coral Gables
Alex Morcate Colliers International Miami
W. Allen Morris, CCIM, SIOR The Allen Morris Company Coral Gables
Andreina Moyssidis Keller Williams Realty Premier Properties Miami
Jorge Napoles, CCIM Sperry Commercial Global Affiliates Miami
Marc A. Napolitano, CCIM Napolitano Commercial Properties Miami
Andres Navarrete Absolut Financial Resources Miami
Michael Navarro MMG Equity Partners Pinecrest
Patricia A. Nooney, SIOR, CCIM CBRE, Inc. Miami
JM Padron, CCIM RE/MAX Commercial Associates Weston
Thomas Panos P.A. Panago CRE Group / The Keyes Company Homestead
Elias G. Patsalos, CCIM Casal Group Miami
Manuel Perez The Keyes Company Coral Gables
Florida CCIM Miami-Dade / Monroe District
Membership List
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 20
Ed Perez-Heydrich, CCIM Portfolio Real Estate Services Coral Gables
Christian Perlini Total Real Estate Consultants, Inc. Coral Springs
John Perrone Legacy Realty Services, LLC Coral Springs
John L. Petricola, CCIM Rockefeller Group Development Corp. Miami
Wendy Pierre, CCIM BAWONS Properties, Inc. Miami
Billy Planes, CCIM RE/MAX 360 Real Estate Coral Gables
Alejandro Puente ACP Appraisals, LLC Miami
Tony Puente, CCIM Fairchild Partners, Inc Coral Gables
Patricia Quintana, CCIM Comreal Miami, Inc. Doral
Roza H. Radkiewicz Astor Companies Coral Gables
Karen Reiter Keller Williams Elite Properties Aventura
David Restainer, CCIM Douglas Elliman Commercial Real Estate Miami
Albert D. Rey, CCIM Miami
Stephen R. Rigl, SIOR, CCIM Binswanger-Gateway Partnership South Miami
Carlos A. Rodriguez, Jr. Waronker and Rosen, Inc. Miami
Grace C. Rodriguez, PA AB Realty, LLC Miramar
Frank Rodriguez Melo, CCIM Cedano Realty Advisors Miami
Britt J. Rosen, CCIM Brittex Appraisal Services, Inc. Miami
Matthew O. Rotolante, CCIM, SIOR Lee & Associates Miami Miami
Daniel Salcedo, CCIM CRE Global Miami
Kevin Joseph Sanz, CCIM Orion Investment & Management Miami
Edward Schmidt, CCIM NAI Miami Miami
Jose Serrano, CCIM New Miami Realty Corp. Miami
Keiti Silva Optimar International Realty Miami
Paul Silverstein, P.A. Florida Commercial Team LLC Miami
Arnaud Sitbon, CCIM ESJ Asset Management Aventura
Paul Skoric, CCIM Soundvest Properties, Inc. Miami
Claudia Splinter Trajan Commercial Real Estate Brickell
Everett Stonebraker Steinbauer Associates, Inc. Miami
Chris Suarez Lincoln Property Company Miami
George Theodore, PhD Address Real Estate, LLC Miami
Otto Travieso, CCIM Real Capital Partners LLC Miami
Donald Trombly Risk Strategies Miami
Victor Vargas CorEvents, Inc. / Brittex Appraisal Services, Inc. Miami
Yulia Vargas VETA Group of AG Advisors Sunny Isles Beach
Paul L. White, CCIM CPM CSM RPA KW Commercial Miami
Mark Wohl Tiktin Real Estate Investment Services North Miami Beach
Jennifer Wollmann EWM Realty International, Inc. Coral Gables
Milena Wood Real Miami Commercial Real Estate, LLC Coral Gables
Joshua Young Raisal Coral Gables
Nicolas Zelaya Key Biscayne
Danny Zelonker, SIOR, CCIM Real Miami Commercial Real Estate, LLC Coral Gables
Gabriel Zelonker, CCIM Real Miami Commercial Real Estate, LLC Miami
Jay Ziv, CCIM Avison Young Miami
Florida CCIM Miami-Dade / Monroe District
Membership List
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference21
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THE RELATED GROUP n 315 S BISCAYNE BLVD. MIAMI, FL 33131 n RELATEDGROUP.COM
CONTACT RON MELENDEZ n RMELENDEZ@RELATEDGROUP.COM n 305 533 0057
PRESERVING REAL ESTATE PROFITS FOR 30 YEARS
Diane O. Rivera, CES®
305-807-2320
800-332-1031
diane@starker1031fl.com
THE NATION’S MOST EXPERIENCED 1031 EXCHANGE INTERMEDIARY
National 1031 Exchange Intermediary Starker.com | 1031@starker.com
www.weathermakers.net Service@weathermakers.net
Residential Commercial
13955 SW 119 Ave CAC1818645
Miami, Florida 33186 EC13006657 Office: 305-233-5820Fax: 305-233-4336
Commercial real estate financing for the modern world.
Every lender. Every loan program. Every type of asset.
One, simple online platform.
raisal.com
45 Years 80% Repeat Clients 100% Quality
DESIGN / BUILD PRECONSTRUCTION GENERAL CONTRACTOR
PROGRAM MANAGEMENT SPECIAL PROJECTS
305.520.2114ANDREW LEHRER, SIOR
ANDREA MONTEJO, CCIM
10,000-182,000 SF AVAILABLE
CLASS-A WAREHOUSE
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 22
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference23
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 24
2019 Economic Outlook by K.C. Conway
Main PowerPoints
4 Fed Rate Hikes, Gov. Shutdown, Tariffs, etc.
Yogi Berra had a Quote to put Anything in Perspective.
2
Forget the “r” word for 2019 … but Get used to the “v” word (Volatility)
3
Just when things were
going so well,
“V” remerged.
What lies ahead?
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference25
2019 Economic Outlook by K.C. Conway
Main PowerPoints
The Big Story will be in
Logistics & Industrial R.E.
4
Amazon HQ2 Issue:
Is Amazon going to pick a
HQ2 where it starts out
with a Skills Gap?
KC forecast is a Co-
working/WeWork option
for Amazon HQ2
Jobs & Workforce: LinkedIn MSA-level Skills Analyses
5
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 26
Industrial Market by Stephanie A. Rodriguez
Main PowerPoints
SOUTH FLORIDA INDUSTRIAL MARKET OVERVIEW
MARKET SIZE
Palm Beach 62.7M
Broward 132M
Miami-Dade 245M
TOTAL SFL 439M SF
*Source: CoStar 3Q 2018
MIAMI INDUSTRIAL MARKET STATISTICS
Submarket Inventory (SF)
Direct Vacancy Rate (%)
Ave. Asking Rent
($/psf)
YTDAbsorption
Airport/Doral 80,464,770 3.5% $10.84 194,653
Central Dade 3,291,044 2.5% $11.63 45,103
Hialeah 31,066,424 2.8% $8.70 166,908
S Central Miami 13,133,536 7.1% $22.32 (90,735)
Medley 35,417,833 5.2% $9.46 665,758
Miami Lakes 12,056,257 1.4% $8.62 171,183
N. Miami Beach 37,257,803 4.8% $9.07 (50,772)
E Miami 4,273,653 7% $17.19 (30,538)
S Dixie Hwy 8,910,257 2.6% $12.09 (56,714)
SW Dade 10,295,706 1.9% $12.26 (73,213)
W Miami 4,677,002 2.2% $15.49 (26,402)
MIAMI 242,828,846 3.8% $10.59 2,674,465
2
Source: CoStar 3Q 2018
-400,000
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Airport Medley/Hialeah N. Miami
Key Submarket Absorption
1Q 2Q 3Q
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference27
Industrial Market by Stephanie A. Rodriguez
Main PowerPoints
DEVELOPMENT – MIAMI-DADE INDUSTRIAL
• 3.1 million square feet under construction at the end of 2018
• 2017 deliveries totaled 3.7 million square feet
• 2018 deliveries through 3Q totaled 3.1 million square feet
• Submarkets with highest volume of development are:
• Medley/Hialeah
• Miami Lakes
• N. Central Dade
• Airport West/Doral
• Developers:
• Flagler
• ProLogis
• Bridge Development Partners
• Liberty Property Trust
• East Group
• Panattoni
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
YE 2017 1Q 2018 2Q 2018 3Q 2018
Mill
ion
SF
Period
Historical Deliveries & Net Absorption
Net Absorption Deliveries
3
MARKET DRIVERS & TRENDS TO WATCH IN 2019
4
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 28
Retail Market by Josh Rodstein
Main PowerPoints
2 0 1 9 C C I M O U T L O O K C O N F E R E N C E S L I D E 2
R E T A I L I N M I A M I
T O T A L S P A C E
D E L I V E R E D ( S F )
L A S T 1 2 M O N T H S
1.7 M
N E T A B S O R B T I O N
I N S F
618 K
V A C A N C Y
R A T E
4.0%
R E N T
G R O W T H
2.9%
I N V E N T O R Y ( S F ) 137 M
2 0 1 9 C C I M O U T L O O K C O N F E R E N C E S L I D E 3
R E T A I L I N F O R T L A U D E R D A L E
T O T A L S P A C E
D E L I V E R E D ( S F )
L A S T 1 2 M O N T H S
864 K
N E T A B S O R B T I O N
I N S F
245 K
V A C A N C Y
R A T E
3.9%
R E N T
G R O W T H
0.4%
I N V E N T O R Y ( S F ) 108 M
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference29
Retail Market by Josh Rodstein
Main PowerPoints
2 0 1 9 C C I M O U T L O O K C O N F E R E N C E S L I D E 4
R E T A I L I N P A L M B E A C H
T O T A L S P A C E
D E L I V E R E D ( S F )
L A S T 1 2 M O N T H S
182 K
N E T A B S O R B T I O N
I N S F
-354 K
V A C A N C Y
R A T E
4.6%
R E N T
G R O W T H
3.8%
I N V E N T O R Y ( S F ) 80.5 M
2 0 1 9 C C I M O U T L O O K C O N F E R E N C E S L I D E 5
A V A I L A B I L I T Y I N S O U T H F L O R I D A
L A S T 1 2 M O N T H S
AVAILABILITY MIAMI FT. LAUDERDALE PALM BEACH NATIONAL INDEX
Market Rent/SF $38.50 $24.67 $27.29 $20.94
Vacancy Rate 4.0% 3.9% 4.6% 4.4%
Vacant SF 5.5 M 4.2 M 3.7 M 503 M
Availability Rate 5.5% 5.6% 6.4% 6.3%
Available SF 7.7 M 6.1 M 5.2 M 727 M
Sublet SF 177 K 98.5 K 105 K 25 M
Months on Market 8.4 9.1 8.9 10.7
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 30
Capital Market by Andrea Molina
Main PowerPoints
Commercial Real
Estate Lending 101
Investor (often a business entity):
-Purchases a property, leases out space and
collects rent from the businesses that
operate within the property.
-The investment is intended to be an
income-producing property.
Lender’s basic considerations:
-Loan’s collateral (i.e. the property itself)
-Creditworthiness of the entity (or
principals/owners), including three to five
years of financial statements and income
tax returns
-Financial ratios, such as the loan-to-value
ratio and the debt-service coverage ratio.Source: Investopedia
Sources of Capital
Source: National Real Estate Investor
On a scale of 1 to 10, respondents rated local and regional
banks as the most significant source of capital to the
commercial real estate sector at a 6.7
Availability of
Real Estate
Capital
2018 vs. 2019
Sources: PWC Emerging Trends in Real Estate Survey, Based on U.S. Respondents only; Fed Reserve; data firm Trepp LLC
-Late-cycle sentiment offset by competition
-$4.17 trillion in CRE debt held by all lenders,
with 52.4% held by banks
-$266 billion of private investor “dry powder”
targeting real estate
-Depth of capital pool vs. ability to draw on it
-Pattern of decelerating transaction volume
since 2015.
-Federal Reserve’s April 2018 Senior Loan
Officers’ survey showed, for the first time in
three years, an easing of credit standards on
commercial real estate
-Underwriting standards such as loan-to-cost
ratios and maturities holding steady.
-Larger loans for development projects, and
to expand the geography of construction
lending.
-Expectation of deregulation (Dodd-Frank)
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference31
Capital Market by Andrea Molina
Main PowerPoints
Impact of Rising Interest Rates
* Source: National Real Estate Investor
Cap rates
expected to
rise –
mitigated by
flight to
quality
Negative impact on
new construction
financing
How will rising interest rates impact each aspect of the CRE market?
South Florida:
Primary Market
Stability in 2019CRE values – especially in top-tier markets –
are at all-time highs and cap rates are as
tight as ever
Late cycle compressed yields led investors to
secondary markets – 75 to 100 bp spread
Investment activity shifting back to Primary
Markets
Income stream coupled with high-quality
assets that will be best-positioned to go
through different economic cycles
* Source: Trepp LLC
Average Cap Rate by Tier
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 32
Multifamily Market by Calum Weaver
Main PowerPoints
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference33
Multifamily Market by Calum Weaver
Main PowerPoints
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 34
Office Market by Maria G. Juncadella, SIOR, CCIM, MBAMain PowerPoints
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference35
Office Market by Maria G. Juncadella, SIOR, CCIM, MBAMain PowerPoints
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These timeless values are as relevant today as they were 70 years ago.
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