Transcript
VULCAN MATERIALS : VMC(NYSE)
CURRENT MARKET PRICE : $128.20
PRICE TARGET : $143.62
UPSIDE :12%
Company Overview
Company Overview
Internal Analysis Recommendation Investment
Thesis Valuation Risks and Catalysts
•Vulcan Materials is America’s largest producer of construction aggregates
•Its four principal products are:AggregatesAsphalt mixConcreteCalcium
•Operates in 20 states and has 304 aggregates facilities
•Its primary customers are the US government and private construction companies
HighwaysOther non building InfrastructureResidential buildingsNon residential buildingsNon construction
Key Multiples
Company Overview
Internal Analysis Recommendation Investment
Thesis Valuation Risks and Catalysts
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Annual Revenue
Fiscal Year
Rev
enue
in B
illio
ns
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Annual EBITDA
Fiscal Year
EBIT
DA in
Mill
ions
Company Overview
Internal Analysis Recommendation Investment
Thesis Valuation Risks and Catalysts
Cement Revenue Delivery Revenue Intersegment Revenue Asphalt mix & Concrete Revenue Aggregates revenue
• In 2015, 77% of total revenue was from Aggregates
• In the last 5 years Aggregates revenue has grown 60%
Performance
Company Overview
Internal Analysis Recommendation Investment
Thesis Valuation Risks and Catalysts
Porter’s 5 Forces Analysis
Company Overview
Internal Analysis Recommendation Investment
Thesis Valuation Risks and Catalysts
Buyers
Suppliers
Potential Entrants
Substitutes
Rivalry
-Many suppliers -High Bargaining power-Intensity: Low
-Few firms control market-Biggest competitors win -Intensity: Medium
-High start up costs-Economics of scale -Intensity: low
-Few substitutes -More like a commodity -Intensity: Low
- Many buyers- Needed for
Construction - Standardized
Product- Intensity: medium
Management Overview
•MBA Wharton School of Business
•President of Florida Rock prior to joining VMC in 2010
•Compensation base: ◦ $891,668.00 + bonus
•Based on: • EPS Growth• Margin expansion• revenue growth
Company Overview
Internal Analysis Recommendation
Investment Thesis Valuation Risks and
Catalysts
• MBA Stanford Business school
• Joined VMC in 2011
• Became CFO in 2014
• Prior to VMC worked at McKinsey & Co.
• Earned total 2.6 million
CFO- John McPhersonCEO-Thomas Hill
RecommendationWe recommend a long position in Vulcan Materials at their current market price of $128.20
Company Overview
Internal Analysis Recommendation
Investment Thesis Valuation Risks and
Catalysts
It’s undervalued between 10-20%
The market overlooked the results of it’s last quarterly report
The recent surge in demand for construction materials
Company Overview
Internal Analysis Recommendation Investment
Thesis Valuation Risks and Catalysts
Investment Thesis
VMC Trading at a Discount
Fixing America’s Surface Transportation Act (FAST)
New proposed infrastructure Spending
Investment Thesis I
Company Overview
Internal Analysis Recommendation
Investment Thesis Valuation Risks and
Catalysts
•Trading at a discount due to poor weather conditions •Poor Q2, and Q3 earnings•Revenues $1.01 Billion vs $1.11 Billion estimation•$1.01 EPS vs 1.04 EPS estimation
Investment Thesis II•Fixing Americas Transportation Act (FAST)•USA Government plan to spend $305 billion over 5 years on infrastructure•North America deteriorating at quickest rate in the world •25% of bridges in USA are deficient•32% of roads are in poor condition•Spending on roads, bridges, and rail lines
Company Overview
Internal Analysis Recommendation
Investment Thesis Valuation Risks and
Catalysts
Investment Thesis III•New proposed Infrastructure spending •Trump plans to spend over $500 billion on infrastructure •Subsides/ tax credits to construction companies •Spending on airports, bridges, and roads
Company Overview
Internal Analysis Recommendation
Investment Thesis Valuation Risks and
Catalysts
Valuation•We formulated our target price using the forward P/E ratio
(Forward P/E*2017 eps)= target price
(33.40*4.3)=143.62
• This target price would yield a 12% return
Company Overview
Internal Analysis Recommendation Investment
Thesis Valuation Risks and Catalysts
Valuation•Vulcan materials is a frequent issuer of dividends
•Theoretical price indicates that it’s undervalued
Company Overview
Internal Analysis Recommendation Investment
Thesis Valuation Risks and Catalysts
Risks and Catalysts Risks
•Federal Funding
•Weather
•High competition = lower pricing
•Earnings sensitive to volumes
•Government regulations, requirements
Catalysts•Presidential election
•Infrastructure spending
•Effective cost management
•M&A activity
•Quarterly Earnings
Company Overview
Internal Analysis Recommendation Investment
ThesisValuation Risks and
Catalysts
top related