U.S. Solar Market Data 2009
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U.S. Solar Market Data
Larry Sherwood
Sherwood Associates and IREC
IREC Annual Meeting
October 11, 2010
Scope of Presentation
•! Photovoltaic and Solar Thermal
–!Focus on Grid-Connected PV
•! United States Market
•! Data through 2009
•! Some projections for 2010
Grid-Connected
Photovoltaics
Cumulative U.S. Grid-tied
Photovoltaic Installations
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P
MW
-dc
Capacity of Annual U.S.
Grid-Tied PV Installations
2010 PV Installation Drivers
•! Federal incentives stable (but change at the end of 2010)
•! RPS and utility ITC
•! Stimulus funds
•! Lower module prices
Capacity of Annual U.S.
Grid-Tied PV Installations
Capacity of Annual U.S.
Grid-Tied PV Installs by Sector
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P
Residential
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P
Non-Residential
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P
Utility
Installations Larger than 10 MW
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P
U.S. PV Cost Trends
$-
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
2007 2008 2009 2010 future
Residential
Non-Residential
Based on California Solar Initiative data
Grid-Tied PV Capacity by State
(2009 Installations)
Cumulative Per Capita
Grid-Tied PV Installations
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
CA HI NJ NV CO AZ CT DE OR VT MA FL
W-dc per person
Number of Annual
Grid-Tied PV Installations
Concentrating Solar Power
Concentrating Solar Power
Concentrating Solar Power
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P
MW
Future for
Concentrating Solar Power
•!Thousands of MW Proposed
•!Several project will begin construction in 2010
•!Southwest & Florida
Solar Heating and Cooling
Capacity of Annual U.S.
Solar Hot Water+ Installations
Solar Hot Water+ Capacity
by State
HI
CA
PRFL
AZ
Other
Based on analysis of EIA data for 2008
Future for Solar Hot Water
•!Continued but moderate growth
•!More state and local incentives
•!Markets in all regions - best in areas with electric
hot water
Annual Solar Pool Heating
Installations
Annual Solar Pool Heating
Installations
FL
CA
AZ
Other
Based on analysis of EIA Data for 2008
Future for
Solar Pool Heating
•!Market tied to market for swimming pools
•!Growth will require real estate market recovery in Florida and California
www.irecusa.org
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