U.S. EPA: NCEA/Global Change Research Program

U.S. EPA: NCEA/Global Change Research Program

Glenn E. MoglenUniversity of MarylandNovember 12, 2002

Changing Climate and Land Use in the Mid-Atlantic: Modeling Drivers and Consequences in Economics, Hydrology, Geomorphology, and Ecology – Hydrologic Component

Changing Climate and Land Use in the Mid-Atlantic: Modeling Drivers and Consequences in Economics, Hydrology, Geomorphology, and Ecology – Hydrologic Component

OutlineOutline Spatially Explicit Land Use Modeling Peak Flow Modeling

TR-20/TR-55 Continuous Streamflow Modeling Regression Approach?

Low Flow Modeling Continuous Streamflow Modeling Regression Approach

Items in “Flux” Water Quality Modeling Stream Gaging Can you spell “I-C-C”?

Northwest Branch Watershed…Northwest Branch Watershed…

Temporal Change in Aggregate Land Use Distribution…Temporal Change in Aggregate Land Use Distribution…

Tracking Land Use Change In Time AND Space…Tracking Land Use Change In Time AND Space…

Reference: Moglen and Beighley, JAWRA February, 2002.

Land Use Change AnimationLand Use Change Animation

Northwest Branch Watershed: 1938 - 2000.

Based on methods presented in Moglen and Beighley, JAWRA February, 2002

If you would like to see this again…

http://www.ence.umd.edu/~moglen/WWproject.html

Peak Flow ModelingPeak Flow Modeling TR-55: “Graphical Method” (see Moglen

and Beighley, JAWRA February, 2002.

Peak Flow ModelingPeak Flow Modeling For larger watersheds where channel

processes or reservoirs add significant delays or attenuation of flood we use composite of TR-55 and TR-20 simulations:

)()()()(

)()()()(

)()(~

555555

202020

5520

ATRAAB

ATRBTR

ATRAAB

ATRBTR

TRTR

xQxxxx

xQxQ

xQxxxx

xQxQ

xQxQ

)(

)()()(

~

55

205520

ATR

ATRTRTR xQ

xQxQxQ

From Sources to first downstream point TR-20 point:

In between TR-20 simulated points:

Continuous Streamflow Modeling: A “Simple” Model

Continuous Streamflow Modeling: A “Simple” Model Storages

Fluxes

Issues

Implications

Sample Simulation – Northwest Branch: Historic/1994-2092Sample Simulation – Northwest Branch: Historic/1994-2092

A Different Approach – Evolution of annual 7-day low flow eventA Different Approach – Evolution of annual 7-day low flow event Regression Approach – Low Flows in NWB

Year

Q7 (

m3/s

)

)()()(29.0 72.033.01.27

ITPQ

Items In Flux: Water Quality ModelingItems In Flux: Water Quality Modeling

Not much progress to date…Focus of Years 3 & 4 of WWS project

Existing Models HSPF SWMM Conceptual/Simple Model

Need to model land use change Dynamically

Items in Flux: Stream Gaging Activities…Items in Flux: Stream Gaging Activities…

Installed 5 gages of our own across all study watersheds, scales, & land uses.

Have access to data from 3 USGS stream gages at outlets of study watersheds.

Have access to data from 2 Montgomery County stream gages.

Items in Flux: The Inter-County Connector and our Watersheds…Items in Flux: The Inter-County Connector and our Watersheds…

Northwest Branch

Paint Branch

ICC

Summary / Future DirectionsSummary / Future Directions

Issues addressed or with clear approach: Land use change modeling Peak flow modeling Continuous streamflow modeling Low Flow Modeling

Issues in “Flux” Water Quality Modeling Stream Gaging ICC as a “wildcard”