Update on Irish & EU Beef Market Situation · Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Increase 2015: +6.2% 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 Head Annual Calf

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

AIDAN COTTER

CHIEF EXECUTIVE

BORD BIA

28 JANUARY 2009

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

July 2016

Update on Irish & EU Beef Market Situation

Joe Burke

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

Increase

2015:

+6.2%

800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200

Tho

usa

nd

He

ad

Annual Calf Registrations: 2010 - 2015

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

0.991 0.982 1.010

1.104 1.149 1.254

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2013 2014 2015

Mill

ion

he

ad

Dairy

Suckler

Total Calf Births 2013-2015

Source – Calf Births: AIM

Calf Registrations increased by 6.2% / 133,000 head in 2015

+9.1%

+2.9%

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

+3.0%

+5.1% +1.2%

+19.6%

+20.5%

-5.5% +6%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

FR LM CH AA HE BB SIM

2014 2015

Calf Registrations by Breed 2015 vs ‘14

Source - AIM

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000

1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000

Total Dairy Suckler

2015 2016

-20,000

+69,000

+49,000

Calf Registrations up 2.6% to-date (w/e. 15/07)

Source – ICBF / AIM

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

(000’ head) 2015 2016 % change

Total

NI

GB

Italy

Spain

Netherlands

Belgium

France

Other EU

Libya

Other int. mkt.s

122,199

26,509

4,639

10,117

25,556

43,077

347

8,343

725

433

2,453

92,231

14,174

1,593

12,055

29,965

26,627

171

5,699

1,947

0

0

-25%

-47%

-66%

+19%

+17%

-38%

-51%

-32%

+170%

-100%

-100%

Live Cattle Exports 2016 Distribution of Live Exports from Ireland up to w/e. 25th June

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

0-12 12-24 24-36

2015 2016

Male Cattle Numbers by Age Category on 1st of June

-35,000

+83,000

+55,000 Source: AIM

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

0-12 12-24 24-36

2015 2016

Female Beef Cattle No.s by Age Category on 1st of June

Source: AIM

-9,000

+57,000 +20,000

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2016

2015

Irish weekly finished cattle supplies (head)

2.9% Increase in Irish Cattle Supplies

(+24,390 head)

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

Year to-date, Irish R3 steer price 4.5% lower vs. 2015 (€3.87 vs. €4.05)

Latest Irish Price Jul ’16: €3.81/kg vs. Jul. ‘15: €4.18/kg

200

250

300

350

400 2015

2016

Producer Prices: Ireland R3 Steer (c/kg excl VAT)

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

Producer Prices: Ireland vs. UK (c/kg excl VAT)

Year to-date, Irish R3 steer price 8% below average UK price (33c)

Latest Irish Price €3.81/kg vs. UK: €3.96/kg

200

250

300

350

400

450 UK R3 Steer

Ireland R3 Steer

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

British Cattle Price Development in Sterling terms

£ Ste

rling p

/kg

Last week: GB R3 steers average £3.42 @ 83.6p = €4.09/kg

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

Currency Exchange Rates

Average for 2014: €1: £0.806

20th July 2016: €1: £0.836

Value of Euro in Sterling terms

For 2015: €1: £0.726

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

Jan 1

0

Jul 1

0

Jan 1

1

Jul 1

1

Jan 1

2

Jul 1

2

Jan 1

3

Jul 1

3

Jan 1

4

Jul 1

4

Jan 1

5

Jul 1

5

Jan 1

6

Jul 1

6

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

83.6p

Currency Exchange Rates Value of Euro in Sterling terms since 2010

Source: Central Bank of Ireland

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

Producer Prices: Ireland vs. Continental EU (c/kg excl VAT)

Year to-date, Irish R3 steer price 5% above Continental EU average

Latest Irish Price €3.81/kg vs. Continental EU av.: €3.54/kg

In Italy, R3 young bull price: €3.80/kg, Spain: €3.61, France: €3.49, Germany €3.42

200

250

300

350

400 Ireland R3 Steer

Continental European R3 Young Bull

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

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16

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

European Beef / Cattle Supplies 2016

(EU Commission)

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

Germany (EU Forecast)

Volume : +0.5%

France

(Jan to 12 Jun)

Volume: -0.9%

Av Price: +2.5%

Britain

(12 wks to 22 May)

Volume: +2.1%

Av Price: -2.8%

Home Market

(12 wks to 21 June)

Volume: -1%

Av Price: -1%

EU Beef Retail Sales / Consumption 2016

Italy (EU Forecast)

Volume : -1.5%

Netherlands (EU Forecast)

Volume : +1.8%

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

UK Beef Market (2015 data)

• Population: 65 million

• Beef Consumption: 1,184,000 t. (18.4kg/capita)

• Beef Production (905,000 t.)

• Imports 434,000 t. / Exports 136,000 t.

• Ireland has a 70% share of UK beef imports

• Supplying key retail and foodservice customers

• Product profile well-matched: steer/heifer, grass-based, QA

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

UK Market Activity

Irish Beef Promotion in Birmingham

Brexit Breifing for Industry

Workshop on managing currency volatility

Mentoring, “meet the buyer” sessions

Trade and consumer promotions

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

AIDAN COTTER

CHIEF EXECUTIVE

BORD BIA

28 JANUARY 2009

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

July 2016

Update on Irish & EU Beef Market Situation

Joe Burke