Uncertainty of oil price forecasts and macroeconomic implications
Post on 11-Jan-2017
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Uncertainty of oil price forecasts and macroeconomic implications
Torbjörn BeckerDirector, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) @ Stockholm School of Economics
www.hhs.se/sitetorbjorn.becker@hhs.se
AgendaGlobal outlook and oil price uncertainty
Russia and CIS
Global outlook and oil price uncertainty
Growing uncertainty(?)
IMF WEO Oct 2015
Risk assessment
IMF WEO Oct 2015
Volatile oil prices…
IMF WEO Oct 2015
CBOE crude oil volatility index
… Uncertain oil price forecasts
IMF WEO Oct 2015
Supply and demand projections consistent with price forecasts?
Oil reserves and political systems
7/7
6/6
1/1
1/11/1(?)
6/5
2/2
?/?
5/5
6/6
4/5
5/5
4/4
Political freedom/Civil liberty (Freedom House)
Russia and CIS
Russian roller-coaster mostly down
Russian GDP could fall further
Total Russian trade to June 2015
Share in 2014
June 2015/ June 2014
Total 100 69
EU 48 66
APEC 27 70
CIS 12 60
ROW 13 86
Share of CIS countries’ exports going to Russia
Currency depreciations last 12 months among CIS countries
Remittances from Russia to CIS countries
Remittances from workers in Russia to CIS countries, recent trends
CIS outlook (IMF WEO Oct 2015)
Thanks!Torbjörn BeckerDirector, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) @ Stockholm School of Economics
www.hhs.se/sitetorbjorn.becker@hhs.se
Global growth prospects
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