Uncertainty analysis in the Thames Estuary Lucy Manning and Hamish Harvey School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University Jim Hall Environmental.
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Uncertainty analysis in the Thames Estuary
Lucy Manning and Hamish HarveySchool of Civil Engineering and Geosciences,
Newcastle University
Jim HallEnvironmental Change Institute, Oxford
University
1
IPCC AR4 mean sea level projections
2
AR
4 20
07 Does the UK experience the global mean?
Plus additional contribution
from ice sheets ?????
3
TE2100 adopted a High++ scenario of 2m mean sea level increase in 2100
Ice sheet melting beyond 2100
4
What would this mean for closure of the Thames Barrier?
5
For what sea level rise scenarios does gravity drainage continue to work?
6
Decision analysis under uncertaintyWe consider a two-stage problem:
• Conventional cost-benefit analysis is applied for the appraisal period considered in TE2100 (i.e. to 2170)
• We recognise the possibility of long term in vulnerability to high levels of sea level rise. We wish to avoid situations of unacceptable societal risk that society may regret in future.
We analyse 1000s of different decision pathways (barriers, defence raising, pumping), along with non-structural measures
We provide decision makers with information on ‘short-term’ optimisation and ‘long-term’ regret.
We demonstrate how to identify robust flood risk management strategies in complex situations of decision making under uncertainty
See our first FRMRC Fact Sheet…more results to follow
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