Turkish Economy’s Dynamics of Entry to and Exit from the Crisis Prof. Seyfettin Gürsel Bahcesehir University Center for Economic and Social Research (betam)
Post on 17-Dec-2015
214 Views
Preview:
Transcript
Turkish Economy’s Dynamics of Entry to and Exit from the Crisis
Prof. Seyfettin Gürsel
Bahcesehir University Center for Economic and Social Research (betam)
Director
Prepared for Professional ManagersMeeting on 18th January 2010, Istanbul.
2
Outline of the Presentation
I. What do demand dynamics tell about entry to and exit from the crisis ?
II. How did the crisis affect the Turkish Labor Market?
What do demand dynamics tell about
entry to and exit from the crisis?
PART I
4
Private Investment & Private Consumption - GDP Nexus
Source : Turkstat, betam
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
(Ave
rag
e 20
07=
100)
Private Consumption Private Investment GDP
5
Aggregate Government Expenditure - GDP Nexus
Source : Turkstat, betam
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
(Ave
rage
200
7=10
0)
Aggregate Government Expenditure GDP
6
Export & Import - GDP Nexus
Source : Turkstat, betam
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
(Ave
rag
e 20
07=
100)
Export Import GDP
7
Investment Expectations - Private Investment Nexus
Source : Turkstat, betam
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Ave
rag
e 20
07=
100
Investment Expectations Private Investment
8
Consumer Confidence Index - Private Consumption Nexus
Source : Turkstat, betam
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Ave
rage
200
7=10
0
Consumer Confidence Index Private Consumption
9
Consumer Confidence Index (t+1) - Private Consumption Nexus
Source : Turkstat, betam
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Ave
rage
200
7 =1
00
Consumer Confidence Index (t+1) Private Consumption (t)
The Effects of the Crisis on the Turkish Labor Market.
PART II
I. Effects on Unemployment
II. Effects on Labor Force
III. Effects on Employment
11
The Effects of the Crisis on Labor Market
Effect on Labor Force (+) Effect on Employment (-)
Boom in unemployment
12
2100
2300
2500
2700
2900
3100
3300
3500
3700
Jan-08Feb-08M
ar-08Apr-08M
ay-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08O
ct-08Nov-08Dec-08Jan-09Feb-09M
ar-09Apr-09M
ay-09Jun-09Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09O
ct-09
No
n-a
gri
cult
ura
l u
nem
plo
ymen
t (
in t
ho
usa
nd
s)
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
No
n-a
gri
cult
ura
l u
nem
plo
ymen
t ra
te
Non-agricultural unemployment Non-agricultural unemployment rate
The effects on Unemployment
Source : Turkstat, betam
Figure 1: Non-agricultural unemployment and unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted)
13
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09ye
ar o
n y
ear,
% c
han
ge
Male Female Total
The effects on Labor Force
Source : Turkstat, betam
Figure 2: Non-agricultural Labor Force (year on year, % change)
14
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
year
on
yea
r, %
ch
ang
e
Male Female Total
The effects on Employment
Source : Turkstat, betam
Figure 3: Non-agricultural employment (year on year, % change)
Female employment increased
Male employment decreased
15
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
# o
f em
plo
yed
(in
th
ou
san
ds)
Male Female
The effects on Employment
Source : Turkstat, betam
Figure 4: Wage earners and casual employees (non-agriculture, year on year change)
Number of male regular/casual workers decreased initially and this is followed by decreases in female regular/casual employment.
16
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
# o
f em
plo
yed
(in
th
ou
san
ds)
Industry Service
The effects on Employment
Source : Turkstat, betam
Figure 5: Employment of male workers (year on year change)
Male employment in industry decreased substantially.
17
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
# o
f em
plo
yed
(in
th
ou
san
ds)
Industry Service
The effects on Employment
Source : Turkstat, betam
Figure 6: Employment of female workers (year on year change)
Female employment mainly increased in service sector.
18
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
# o
f em
plo
yed
(in
th
ou
san
ds)
Male Female
The effects on Employment
Source : Turkstat, betam
Figure 7: Self employed and unpaid family workers (non-agriculture, year on year change)
Number of female own account and unpaid family workers increased dramatically.
top related