Transcript
Capital : Rs 1000000
Profit : Rs 264615.25
Returns : 26.46 %
Rank: 2nd
Turnover: Rs 4400000(Approx)
Scripts Traded: 52
Performance
Macroeconomic News and Index Tends
Indian Markets are seen following global cues
• Tracking the European and US indices – DAX, FTSE ,NASDAQ , DJIA
• Tracking the Asian indices – Nikkei , Hang-Seng
Tracking the RBI regulatory changes and announcements
27th Oct - EU Sets 50% Greek Write-down, $1.4T in Crisis Fight. US , Europeans markets upIndian markets closed
28th Oct – Asian indices upGap up opening in SENSEX and Nifty expectedPlace orders for long positions in pre market opening in metals and IT stocks
25th Oct – RBI announces Savings rate deregulation
25th Oct – Positive for banks with low CASA deposits.Yes Bank up by 7%DCB up by 3%
Yes Bank – 25th Oct Bought @ Rs. 294.3 Sold @ Rs. 302.8Intraday High-Low : Rs 276.2/306.3
Hindalco – 28th OctBought @ Rs. 132.1 Sold @ Rs. 139.7Intraday High-Low : Rs 130.3/143.6
News and Momentum Trading
Fortis Healthcare
1st Nov – Fortis to acquire the international hospital assets of its promoters in Singapore for $665 million
PNB – Q2 results
1st Nov - PNB Q2 profit up 12%; beats estimates; Revenue inline.1st Nov - Stock up from Rs 979 to 1025
Following the latest market news and results:
Tune in Online to NDTV Profit/CNBC-TV18
Corporate Announcements - http://www.moneycontrol.com
Investors Guide – Economic Times
Good Q2 results drives stock price up in the short term but the uptrend is temporary and prices tend to fall a bit later
PNB – 1st NovBought @ Rs. 978Sold @ Rs. 1021Intraday High-Low : Rs 976/1029
Fortis – 1st Nov Bought @ Rs. 127Sold @ Rs. 129.2Intraday High-Low : Rs
Orchid ChemicalsBought @ Rs. 162Sold @ Rs. 175Intraday High-Low : Rs 158.5/179.1
News and Momentum Trading
Orissa Mineral – 25th Oct Bought @ Rs. 46175Sold @ Rs. 48752Intraday High-Low : Rs 46000/50288.4
Orissa Mineral – Stock Split
1st Nov – Board to consider Stock split; FV Rs.1 from FV Rs.10Stock up 4%
BEML – Q2 Results 28th Oct
Revenue for Q2 up 56%, Net profit up by 5 %Stock up 3.5%
Vijaya Bank – Q2 Results
31st Oct – 41% jump in Net Profits at Rs 203.53 crore Stock up by 7%
BEML 28th Oct - Bought @ Rs. 509.531st Oct - Sold @ Rs. 524Intraday High-Low : Rs 497.2/528.95
Vijaya Bank Bought @ Rs. 56Sold @ Rs. 59.8Intraday High-Low : Rs 55.1/61.65
Orchid Chemicals – Q2 results 1st Nov
• Net profit of Rs 234.3 mn for the Q2, 2011 inline with estimates• Stock up from Rs 159 to 176
Follow the Bellwethers
Bellwether stocks tend to lead the sector that it is in, along with the market as a whole
Typically large-cap equities like Infosys, TCS, Reliance, HUL, Tata Motors, L&T.
TCS – IT Bellwether and India’s largest software services exporter
17th Oct - Reported a 15% year-on-year rise in second quarter net profit at Rs 2,439 crore, according to IFRS. Revenue in July-September was up 25% at Rs 11,634 crore. Lower than street expectations
18th Oct - Led by 7% decline in TCS's scrip, the BSE-IT index also down by 3.05 per cent and the top loser among the 13 BSE sectoral indices
• Wipro , Infosys, HCL down by 2-3%
Wipro Ltd
Holding on 17th Oct - 550 Shares
18th Oct -Close long position in early trade @ Rs 349Square-off at close @ Rs 344Intraday High-Low : Rs 343.05/352
Bottom Fishing and Value Buying
Buying undervalued stocks in bearish markets at cheap valuations.
• Trading near 2 year lows• Sound fundamentals and company is in geospatial space and it is having IP business moving up• Shares touched lows after media rumors that promoters have pledged 92% of their holdings. Company clarifies that it was only 12%• Consistently good results over the previous quarters
• Trading near 52 week lows• Expected to have a good quarter• Stock down over 26% from last year versus flat performance of peers• 10-15% upside seen in Short- Medium Term• Tea leaf prices expected to remain stable in the near term
Rolta India Market Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 1,322.10Book Value 117.82EPS (TTM) 24.11Div Yield(%) 4.00P/BV 0.6352 Wk High/Low 69.65/188.53 Yr High/Low 40.7/202.851 Year Return % -53.50P/E Ratio 3.08
Tata Global BeveragesMarket Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 5,652.21Book Value 63.27EPS (TTM) 3.61Div Yield(%) 2.2P/BV 1.3452 Wk High/Low 80.9/1343 Yr High/Low 136.5/44.21 Year Return % -26.9P/E Ratio 23.48
Buy @ Rs.72-75 Sell @ Rs.79-81
Buy @ Rs.83-86 Sell @ Rs.90-91
Stock Trading below Rights Price
Bajaj Hindustan
13 Sep 2011 - Company announced that it would raise Rs 1,644 crore through a rights issue under which two fresh equity shares would be given for every one shares held by shareholders at Rs 36
29th Sep - Rights Issue closes21st Oct - Rights Issue closes
1st Nov -Bajaj Hindustan allots right Equity shares
Bajaj Hind– 25th Oct Bought 2000 Shares @ Rs. 35.25
Bajaj Hind 31st Oct - Sold 1000 Shares @ Rs. 38.11st Nov - Sold 1000 Shares @ Rs. 38.4
• Stocks experience a downtrend after shares have been allotted to applicants in Rights/FPO issues • Selling shares just before allotment gives opportunity for buying back later at lower prices
Diversification
Diversify the portfolio to moderate and minimize the risk
Spread out by different companies across sectors
Limit exposure in a single company to maximum of 10% for Delivery trades and 20% for Intraday trades
Limit exposure in a Sector to 40% intraday and 25% for Delivery trades
Diversify trading strategies
Capital: Rs 1000000
Maximum exposure : Bank of BarodaDelivery Trade: Rs 100000Intraday: Rs 200000
Maximum exposure: Banking SectorDelivery Trade: Rs 250000Intraday: Rs 400000
Segment Diversification:
Large Caps: 30-35% | Mid Caps : 40-45%Small Caps: 25-30% | Avoid penny stocks
Let Profits Run
Stay with profitable trades as long as possible as generally the trend is likely to continue and increase the profits
Include a notional trailing stop loss 3% below peak price. If price starts to reverse and falls by 3% from the peak taking away the accumulated profit, exit the position
Lanco Infratech
Book Profits - Cut Losses Quickly - Sit on cash
Sit on Cash
Keep cash free for profitable stock opportunities If after 3 days the trade has not moved in the expected direction then get outLiquid cash - also a position
Profit Booking Book out of profit positions is to release capitalClose Position if the market moves against you 20% from peak profit point
Cutting Losses Cut losses by moving out if the price fails to obligeCash released can be used for other stocksShorting position if losses exceed beyond 2%
JP Associates – 1st Nov Bought @ Rs. 79.1Sold @ Rs. 77.8Intraday High-Low : Rs 74.3/79.4
My pick – Goodyear India Accumulate @ Rs.290-295Month High - Low – Rs 290 – 324 Sell @ Rs.305-315
• More of short-medium term strategy
• Buy on dips to book quick profits in short term
• Low risk - passive strategy
Why do companies seek delisting?
• No need to disclose financials• Can go with rising or reducing capital or even M&As without having to worry about approvals• Zero or low debt in the books
Goodyear graphCompany Promoter Stake(%)
Goodyear India 74.00Alfa Laval 88.77
Astra Zeneca 90.00Elantas Beck 88.55
Ineos ABS (India) 83.33Timken India 80.02
Invest in Companies with High Promoter Holdings- Potential Delisting Candidates
Trading in IPO listings
Trading in newly listed companies not available
Suggestions
Stop Loss
Crucial to preserving profitsPrevents small losses from becoming disastrously largeDoes not require monitoring on a frequent basis how a stock is performing
Short Selling – “Sell high, buy Low”
Allows to profit from an overpriced or downward trending bear marketHedging tool - protecting other long positions with offsetting short positions
Arbitrage
Availability of trading on both BSE and NSE gives opens up the option for arbitrageOnly BSE quotes available
Adjustments for the following should be made
Dividend PayoutsStock SplitsBonus Issue
Brokerage Charges and Settlement Period
Brokerage charges should be levied on transactions and 1 hour minimum restriction for holding shares after buying should be removed