Tracking intraregional trade in food staples june 2012

Tracking intraregional trade in food staples in COMESA region

Presented at the ReSAKSS Stakeholder Workshop on

Strategic Analysis to inform Agricultural Policy11th June, 2012

Julliet Wanjiku

Presentation outline

• Introduction

• The process of tracking intraregional trade

• Challenges of tracking intraregional trade

• Status of intra-COMESA trade in food staples

• Conclusion

Introduction• Existing initiatives to explain trade potential among

COMESA member countries– The Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network (RATIN) of

the Eastern Africa Grain Council (EAGC)

– Alliance for Commodity Trade for Eastern and Southern Africa (ACTESA) by COMESA

• However, the initiatives do not continuously track the progress in trade

• Thus ReSAKSS has on going project on trade IndicatorAnnual trade indicatorFrom baseline, 2008

ReSAKSS’ Trade Indicator: the process• Identification of data sources: Formal and informal

• Evaluating quality of existing data

• Assessing trade indicators development options

• Stakeholder workshops

• Final methodological framework developed & shared with stakeholders

• Methodology adopted: Use of mirror records for formal data, all available informal trade data are used

Challenges• Formal trade - discrepancies between mirror

records

• Informal trade – incompleteness/ absence of data

• only a few agencies collect informal trade data on a regular basis- UBOS and Market Analysis Subgroup (MAS)

• Lack of harmonised protocol for cross-border trade monitoring –Manual to be published

Data discrepancies: maize trade between Kenya and Tanzania

2007 2006 2005 2004 20030

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000Ken to TanTan from KenTan to KenKen from Tan

Repo

rted

mai

ze tr

ade

(ton

nes)

Data source: COMTRADE, 2010

Data discrepancies: maize trade between Kenya and Uganda

2007 2006 2005 2004 20030

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

Ken to UgaUga from KenUga to KenKen from Uga

Repo

rted

mai

ze tr

ade

(ton

nes)

Data source: FAOSTAT, 2010

Data discrepancy: maize trade between Kenya and Uganda

2007 2006 2005 2004 20030

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000Ken to UgaUga from KenUga to KenKen from Uga

Repo

rted

mai

ze tr

ade

(ton

nes)

Data source: COMSTAT, 2010

Data discrepancy: maize trade between Canada and USA

2007 20060

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000Can to USAUSA from CanUSA to CanCan from USA

Repo

rted

mai

ze tr

ade

(ton

nes)

Data source: COMSTRADE, 2010

Border markets with informal trade in staple foods in ESA

Only a few border points are monitored, hence incompleteness of data

Status of intra-COMESA trade in food staples

Trends in intra-COMESA trade 2008-10

Source: International Trade Centre, Trade Map

Trends in intra-COMESA food staples trade 2008-2010

Source: COMstat, UBOS, EAGC and FEWSNET

Both values and volumes are tracked

Growth in Intra-COMESA Food Staple Trade 2008 – 2010

Source: Computed using data from COMStat, UBOS and MAS group

Conclusion• 10 countries were selected based on availability of data

• Several data gaps especially for informal trade; need for improvement in trade data collection infrastructure

• Trade was reported to go down between 2008 and 2009; between 2009 and 2010, trade increased

• Decline in trade was caused by change in weather conditions, existence of restrictive trade policies e.g. export bans, increase in trade was caused by good agricultural harvests

• unique and severe constraints to trade: land-locked countries; poor infrastructure and services; cumbersome border procedures; inadequate mainstreaming of trade in national development strategies; lack of progress in deepening economic integration

• There is need to mobilise resources for financing trade facilitation within the region

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Thank you for listening