Toronto Condo Network Presentation by Jason Mercer
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TREB Market Update
Toronto Condo Network
Presented By: Jason Mercer, TREB Senior Manager of Market Analysis
April 15, 2011
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
Bank of Canada held the line on rates, but hikes are on the way
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Source: Bank of Canada, Toronto Real Estate Board
Outlook for the Bank of Canada's Target for the Overnight Lending Rate
Bank of Canada Target for the Overnight Rate
3-Month T-Bill
3-Month T-Bill (Forward Rates)
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
The five-year fixed mortgage rate will increase as well
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Source: Bank of Canada, Toronto Real Estate Board
Outlook for the Average Five-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate
Five Year Fixed Rate MortgageFive Year Fixed Rate Mortgage ForecastFive Year Government of Canada BondFive Year GoC Bond (Forward Rates)
Still Room for DiscountingING Direct (April 13/11)
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
The GTA unemployment rate is declining
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Jan
-88
Jan
-89
Jan
-90
Jan
-91
Jan
-92
Jan
-93
Jan
-94
Jan
-95
Jan
-96
Jan
-97
Jan
-98
Jan
-99
Jan
-00
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
(F)
Jan
-12
(F)
Source: Statistics Canada (Historic); TREB (Forecast)
GTA Unemployment Rate
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
Incomes are rising in the GTA
-1.0
%
4.7
% 4.2
%
2.5
%
1.3
%
0.8
%
3.0
%
3.6
%
3.2
%
2.1
%
4.4
%
1.5
%
1.6
%
3.0
%
3.5
%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Source: Statistics Canada (Historic); TREB (Forecast)
Annual Growth Rate for Average Weekly Earnings
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
Affordability is a key indicator for the direction of price and sales
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Data and Calculation; Statistics Canada
TREB Affordability Indicator Share of Average Household Income Used for Mortgage Principal and Interest, Property Taxes and Utilities on the Averaged Priced GTA Resale Home
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
TorontoMLS® sales forecast
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
TorontoMLS® Sales (Annual)
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
TorontoMLS® average selling price forecast
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Average TorontoMLS® Selling Price
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
First Quarter 2011 Condo Apartment Statistics – All TREB Districts
2423
657
519
1389
Share of Total Condo Apartment Sales By TREB Area
Central TREB Districts
East TREB Districts
North TREB Districts
West TREB Districts
Source: TREB
42%
49%
7%
Share of Total Condo Apartment Sales By Bedroom Type
Bachelor
One Bedroom
Two Bedroom
Three Bedroom
Source: TREB
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
1,000,000+
900K-999,999
800K-899,999
700K-799,999
600K-699,999
500K-599,999
400K-499,999
300K-399,999
200K-299,999
0-199,999
Number of Sales
Selli
ng
Pri
ce R
ange
Condo. Apartment Sales by Price Range
Source: TREB
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
Bachelor One Bedroom Two Bedroom Three Bedroom
Total
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Condo Apartment Price by Bedroom Type (All Districts)
Average Selling Price
Median Selling Price
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
Share of condo apartment sales varied by district in the first quarter
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
Average condo apartment prices varied by district in the first quarter
% Over/Under the Average TREB Condo Apartment Price
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
Downtown Core – First Quarter Condominium Apartment Summary
Downtown Core
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
Bach. 1 Bd 1 Bd + 2 Bd 2 Bd + 3 Bd + Total
Source: TREB
Price By Bedroom Type (Downtown Core)
Average Selling Price
Median Selling Price
9
140
279
388
375
84
0 100 200 300 400 500
Three Bedroom
Two Bedroom +
Two Bedroom
One Bedroom +
One Bedroom
Bachelor
Source: TREB
Condo Sales By Bedroom Type (Downtown Core )
0 200 400 600 800
1,000,000+
900K-999,999
800K-899,999
700K-799,999
600K-699,999
500K-599,999
400K-499,999
300K-399,999
200K-299,999
0-199,999
Number of Sales
Selli
ng
Pri
ce R
ange
Condo. Apartment Sales by Price Range (Downtown Core)
Source: TREB
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
North York City Centre – First Quarter Condominium Apartment Summary
North York City Centre
35
98
162
116
111
1
0 50 100 150 200
Three Bedroom
Two Bedroom +
Two Bedroom
One Bedroom +
One Bedroom
Bachelor
Source: TREB
Condo Sales By Bedroom Type (North York City Centre)
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
Bach. 1 Bd 1 Bd + 2 Bd 2 Bd + 3 Bd + Total
Source: TREB
Price By Bedroom Type (North York City Centre)
Average Selling Price
Median Selling Price
0 100 200 300
1,000,000+
900K-999,999
800K-899,999
700K-799,999
600K-699,999
500K-599,999
400K-499,999
300K-399,999
200K-299,999
0-199,999
Number of Sales
Selli
ng
Pri
ce R
ange
Condo. Apartment Sales by Price Range (North York City Centre)
Source: TREB
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
Mississauga City Centre – First Quarter Condominium Apartment Summary
Mississauga City Centre
21
104
104
96
47
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Three Bedroom
Two Bedroom +
Two Bedroom
One Bedroom +
One Bedroom
Bachelor
Source: TREB
Condo Sales By Bedroom Type (Mississauga City Centre)
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
Bach. 1 Bd 1 Bd + 2 Bd 2 Bd + 3 Bd + Total
Source: TREB
Price By Bedroom Type (Mississauga City Centre)
Average Selling Price
Median Selling Price
0 100 200 300
1,000,000+
900K-999,999
800K-899,999
700K-799,999
600K-699,999
500K-599,999
400K-499,999
300K-399,999
200K-299,999
0-199,999
Number of Sales
Selli
ng
Pri
ce R
ange
Condo. Apartment Sales by Price Range (Mississauga City Centre)
Source: TREB
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
Rental Market
Increases in Rental Listings and Transactions
• Following the trend for condominium apartment completions in the last four months of 2010, the number of rental units listed on the TorontoMLS® system increased.
• While the number of rental units listed increased, so too did the number of rental transactions, suggesting that there are a growing number of households looking to rent condominium apartments.
• Average rents remained more or less flat compared to 2009. Because demand kept up with supply, we did not see any widespread downward pressure on rents.0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Downtown Core North York City Centre Mississauga City Centre
Source: TREB
Number of Units Listed3rd Trimester 2010 vs. 3rd Trimester 2009
2010 2009
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Downtown Core North York City Centre Mississauga City Centre
Source: TREB
Number of Units Rented3rd Trimester 2010 vs. 3rd Trimester 2009
2010 2009
$0
$400
$800
$1,200
$1,600
$2,000
All TREB Downtown Core North York City Centre
Mississauga City Centre
Source: TREB
Average One-Bedroom Rents3rd Trimester 2010 vs. 3rd Trimester 2009
2010 2009
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
Strong condo completions have resulted in a more balanced market
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
An
nu
al Me
dian
Price
Gro
wth
Sale
s-to
-Act
ive
Lis
tin
gs r
atio
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Condominium Apartment Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio and
Median Price Growth (All Areas)Annual Median Price Change (Right Scale)
Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio (Left Scale)
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