Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW)

Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS)

Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW)

3SAQS Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol Reflecting Reviewer Comments

University of North Carolina (UNC-IE)Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

ENVIRON International Corporation (ENVIRON)

July 28, 2014

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Four set of Comments provided on the draft 3SAQS 2011 Modeling Protocol (April 2014)• Responders:– U.S. EPA Region 8

• Gail Tonnesen, Rebecca Matichuk and Robin Coursen

– Mike Barna, NPS– Tammy Thomson, CSU/NPS– Brian Bohlmann, Wyoming DEQ

• Responses discussed on June 19, 2008 Conference Call• Response-to-Comments document dated July 22, 2014• Revised Draft 2011 Modeling Protocol (July 2014)

Revised 3SAQS Draft 2011Modeling Protocol

• Main updates were:– Add description of 3SAQS

2015 Work– More details on MPE– Explanations

• Snow cover albedo• MOZART vs. GEOS-Chem• MEGAN vs. BEIS• PMDETAIL vs. SMARTFIRE

– Clarifications– Typos – Remove citations from

footnotes

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Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol

• 1.0 Introduction– Numerous language changes– Make clearer that 2011 platform not just for O&G– New Section 1.5.2 and Table 1.2• State Rulemakings that affect O&G Emissions

• 2.0 Model Selection– Made clear that CMAQ is being applied and part

of MPE and FY modeling (3SAQS 2015 SOW)• 3.0 Episode Selection (None)

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Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol

• 4.0 Domain Selection– Added 4 km plot

• 5.0 WRF Modeling– Winter O3 in 2015 SOW

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Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol

• 6.0 Emissions– Added justification for:• MEGAN vs. BEIS (Biogenics)• PMDETAIL vs. SMARTFIRE (Fires)

– Questions on SMOKE processing streams and requests for separating specific source categories• Updated Table 6-1 and text to be clearer which source

categories are being processed separately• Response-to-Comments responses to request for each

source category

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Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol

• 6.0 Emissions– Clarified Figure 6-1

Figure 6-1. List of counties in the three-state study region where targeted emission improvements were made.

3SAQS 4 km Domain

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Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol

• 6.0 Emissions– Separated discussion of development of 2011 and

2020 O&G emissions like was done for other source categories

– Clarified 2020 O&G projection assumptions:• State-provided – activity growth/decline and no

controls analysis• Survey-based – activity growth/decline and controls

analysis including no turnover assumption when decline

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Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol

• 7.0 Photochemical Modeling– Will configure CAMx/CMAQ and WRF for winter

ozone event modeling in 3SAQS 2015 SOW• Will include use of high snow cover albedo instead of

average value that is used for regional modeling

– Included new Table 7-2 listing CMAQ model configuration

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Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol

• 8.0 Model Performance Evaluation– Ozone performance metrics use 60 ppb threshold– Commit to evaluation for O3/PM precursors• No change, already in Protocol

– Evaluation against NH3 measurements• Added description of AMON network and commit to

use data in evaluation

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Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol

• 8.0 Model Performance Evaluation– Vertical Ozone Comparisons

• Protocol already mentions evaluation against ~50 ozonesonde released at Boulder, CO in 2011

• Researching questions regarding 2011 UGEWOS ozone soundings

– Snow Cover and Albedo• Will address in 3SAQS 2015 SOW when analyzing winter ozone

events

– Precipitation and Cloud Cover• Evaluation of WRF for monthly PRISM precipitation completed

– Questions regarding reliability of PRISM for summer convection– Future plans for use of daily PRISM data analysis fields

• Will examine cloud cover for winter ozone events

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Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol

• 8.0 Model Performance Evaluation– Diagnostic Model Outputs• Diagnostic sensitivity tests addressed in 3SAQS 2015

SOW with input from 3SAQS Technical Committee– Will include BC sensitivity if alternative BCM output available