Thoughts on GCOOS Deliverables (Ops & Extremes) Dr. Cortis Cooper Fellow CortCooper@Chevron.com.

Thoughts on Thoughts on GCOOS GCOOS Deliverables Deliverables (Ops & Extremes)(Ops & Extremes)

Dr.Dr. Cortis CooperCortis Cooper

Fellow FellowCortCooper@Chevron.comCortCooper@Chevron.com

Offshore Production Offshore Production IncreasingIncreasing

30% U.S. oil production 30% U.S. oil production is offshore & increasingis offshore & increasing

Deepwater Gulf is a Deepwater Gulf is a prolific area prolific area

Deep Water!Deep Water!

2003 Gulf of Mexico Activity (MMS)

WaterDepth (m)

ActiveLeases

Drilling Permits

Active Platforms

0-200 3,417 39,390 3,432

200-1000 920 2,244 34

> 1000 3,286 839 9

Industry Needs for Ocean DataIndustry Needs for Ocean Data

TowsTows

OperationsOperations

DowntimeDowntimeAnalysisAnalysis

FatigueFatigueStorm Storm DesignDesign

PollutantPollutantFatesFates

Major Operational & Extremes Major Operational & Extremes in the Gulf of Mexicoin the Gulf of Mexico

Hurricane Andrew

Eddy Triton & the Loop Current

Eddy Triton

Loop Current

Industry Deepwater Current Industry Deepwater Current MeasurementsMeasurements

MMS mandatedMMS mandated Real-time upper-column Real-time upper-column

profilesprofiles– Down to 1000 mDown to 1000 m– Exploration rigs (2-9 Exploration rigs (2-9

month at site)month at site)– Production rigs (permanent)Production rigs (permanent)

Other current Other current measurementsmeasurements– near-bottomnear-bottom– 1-yr of through-column 1-yr of through-column

All data posted to NDBCAll data posted to NDBC

Unfiltered Speeds

285 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4Jul Aug Sep Oct2004

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

Ra

dia

l Sp

d (

cm/s

,+=

to)

ADCP8km2near

Chevron CODARChevron CODAR

Measurements of InterestMeasurements of Interest

MeasurementMeasurement Knowledge GapsKnowledge Gaps BeneficiaryBeneficiary

1. Real-time1. Real-time upper-column upper-column (<500 m) current & temp. (<500 m) current & temp. profilesprofiles

Infill present networkInfill present network Fisheries, Algal bloom Fisheries, Algal bloom forecasters, Oil industry (ops, forecasters, Oil industry (ops, oil spill response)oil spill response)

2. Wave buoys to record 2 2. Wave buoys to record 2 Hz wave time seriesHz wave time series

Rogue wave heightsRogue wave heights Oil-industry (design), Marine Oil-industry (design), Marine opsops

3. Coastal tide gauges3. Coastal tide gauges Local storm surgeLocal storm surge FEMA, Insurance, Oil Industry FEMA, Insurance, Oil Industry (refineries, etc.)(refineries, etc.)

4. Real-time4. Real-time air humidity air humidity sensorssensors

Hurricane severity Hurricane severity forecastsforecasts

Coastal residences, Oil Coastal residences, Oil Industry (ops)Industry (ops)

5. Near-bottom current 5. Near-bottom current profilesprofiles

Bottom circulation in Bottom circulation in the Gulfthe Gulf

Pollutant fate, Oil Industry Pollutant fate, Oil Industry (pipeline & riser design)(pipeline & riser design)

6. Real-time6. Real-time Yucatan Strait Yucatan Strait currents/temp. currents/temp.

Key model inputKey model input Modelers, Climatologists, Oil Modelers, Climatologists, Oil Industry (ops)Industry (ops)

Products of InterestProducts of Interest

ProductsProducts BeneficiaryBeneficiary

1. Improved hurricane 1. Improved hurricane severity severity forecastsforecasts

AllAll

2. Real-time maps of current, 2. Real-time maps of current, wave, wind wave, wind

Fisherman, recreation, Oil Fisherman, recreation, Oil Industry (ops)Industry (ops)

3. Continued altimeter products3. Continued altimeter products ModelersModelers

4. Loop Current nowcast & 4. Loop Current nowcast & forecast (30+ day updated at forecast (30+ day updated at least weekly)least weekly)

Oil Industry (ops), Algal Oil Industry (ops), Algal bloom forecasts, Fisheriesbloom forecasts, Fisheries

5. Gulf-wide current nowcast & 5. Gulf-wide current nowcast & forecast (forcing from wind, forecast (forcing from wind, Loop, etc.)Loop, etc.)

Fisherman, recreation, Oil Fisherman, recreation, Oil Industry (ops)Industry (ops)