The Search for Self Reliance
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1
The Search for Self Reliance
India’s Energy Future
T L Sankar
ADMINISTRATIVE STAFF COLLEGE OF INDIA
Bella Vista :: Hyderabad-500 08228th June 2005
2
Purpose of the Presentation
Economic Growth calls for increase in supply of energy. While India has registered a commendable rate of economic growth in the recent past, it has failed to meet the required needs of clean, convenient and reliable energy at affordable prices to fuel this economic growth.
Many fear that India’s aspiration to achieve 8% per year GDP Growth in the next decade may be constrained by lack of energy supplies.
This presentation seeks to explore the ways in which India could meet its energy demand to support such a development. India achieved, against all prognostications, self-reliance in food and foreign exchange. Can this be repeated in the case of Fuels?
3
Index
Indian Story
In this section we present how India responded to other ‘Crisis’ situations.
Energy Needs & Planning
Energy Sources
Alternative Fuels
4
GDP Growth – Story so far
• To maintain the high GDP growth rate, self reliance in energy holds the key.
India has witnessed a GDP increase on the basis of sustained agricultural & industrial outputs, over the last decade. The “Hindu-rate” of growth (2-3%) has been left far behind.
GDP Growth
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
Rs
. in
Cro
res
5
Per Capita Energy Consumption
Source : BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004
In spite of this growth, the per capita energy consumption of India is far lower than that of the developed nations. Even to reach world average it has to increase five fold. With a population of over a billion, India’s energy expansion plans will have far reaching consequences for the world energy market.
TPES (MtOE)
7.96
4.05
0.96
0.3
1.65
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
World Avg
USA
Japan
China
India
MtOE
Electricity Consumption per Capita (kWh)
14378
8935
1247
526
2571
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000
World Avg
USA
Japan
China
India
kWh
Will India’s approach towards self-reliance in energy help?
6
India – Green Revolution
• India was the most successful country in implementing the Green Revolution. Food grain production almost doubled from 72 MT in 1965-66 to 129 MT in 1978-79 during the green revolution. Today the production is close to 212 MT.
Agricultural Production in India
0
50
100
150
200
250
MT
Whenever faced with a Challenge, India bounced back stronger and self reliant. From a food starved country in 1967, India became a food-grain exporting country in 1979
7
India – Forex Reserves
• With less than $ 2 Bn forex reserves in 1991, the reserves have leapfrogged to nearly $130 Bn due to a series of economic reforms and continued focus on economic development
After Green Revolution, India proved itself again – this time on the Forex Front
Forex Reserves of India
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
Bn
$
From Crisis to Abundance
Source : India Infoline -Economic Survey of India
8
Index
Indian Story
In this section we present the energy needs of India in 2030
Energy Needs & Planning
Energy Sources
Alternative Fuels
Discussion on energy futures for only one decade may lead to misleading conclusions.
9
India – Energy Needs 1/2
Several scenarios/projections of
India’s energy needs have been
attempted by different agencies.
The period of the data and the
horizons of the forecast vary.
For this presentation, using the
latest data and based on
elasticities, a new forecast has
been attempted.
Period
TPES MTOE wrt GDP (in 1993-94)
Rs. Crores
Electricity Generated
(utilities+non utilities) Mus wrt to GDP
1980/81-2003/04 0.97 1.241990/91-2003/04 0.80 1.041994/95-2003/04 0.74 0.98
Elasticities experienced by India
Elasticities used for Projection
PeriodTPES
ElasticityElectricity Elasticity
2004 - 2011/12 0.80 0.952011/12 -2021/22 0.75 0.902021/22 - 2031/32 0.67 0.80
TPES =Total Primary Energy Supply.GDP = Factor cost constant.M Units = Million kWh. MTOE = Metric Tonne Oil Equivalent.
Agency
GDP Growth Rate pa
Planning Commission 7%EIA, US 5%IEA, Paris 5%India Vision 2020 (Planning Commission)India Hydrocarbon Vision 7%
8%
10
India – Energy Needs 2/2
Based on Elasticities set out, demand for Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) and Electricity
supply have been projected assuming, a GDP Growth of 8% and official population estimates.
YearPopulation
Mn TPES MTOEElectricity
Bwh2004-05 1098 341 5872009-10 1180 464 8622014-15 1268 647 12012019-20 1362 830 17642024-25 1463 1117 23042029-30 1573 1404 3385
These projections are in line with the other estimates when they are corrected for a higher GDP
Growth rate. The projections of electricity demand by Ministry of Power, which is upto 2020, is
higher, as it has not fully taken into account the decreasing trend of electricity elasticity to GDP
over time.
India - Energy Needs
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2004-05 2009-10 2014-15 2019-20 2024-25 2029-30
Population Mn
TPES MTOE
Electricity Bw h
Period TPES Electricity Generated (Utilities+non utilities)
1980-2003 5.10% 6.90%
2004-2019 6.10% 7.61%
2020-2030 5.40% 6.74%
The demand forecast suggest that the effort in supplying total primary energy consumption in the next decade would be 1% higher than in the past it was around 5%. This will call for some concerted effort. The electricity supply will have to be increased by about 1% per year over the past rates. This will call this increases investments requirements in power sector. However these rates are achievable, if captive power is encouraged.
11
India – Specific Fuel Needs for Non Power usesNon-power use of Coal Oil & Gas are estimated first. Sources of power generation
from primary sources like nuclear, hydro and renewable and from fuel sources namely
coal and natural gas are estimated next. The coal and natural gas requirements for
power generation are added to the demand for non-power use derive the total fuel
needs including for power generation.
Fuel Needs for Non Power use
Year Coal MMT Oil MMTNatural
Gas BCM2004-05 109 127 212009-10 130 152 252014-15 156 181 302019-20 186 216 362024-25 222 259 432029-30 265 309 51
Past Rates of Growth
Year 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2003Coking Coal 3.62% 2.75% 0
Non Coking for Power 10.76% 12.27% 6.61%Non Coking for Non Power 1.96% 2.34% 2.04%
Non Power Oil 5.40% 6.00% 4.90%
Based on these growth rates, and adjusting for a higher 8% GDP
growth, the specific fuel needs are projected.
Fuel needs for Non Power Use
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2004-05 2009-10 2014-15 2019-20 2024-25 2029-30
Coal MMT
Oil MMT
NaturalGas BCM
12
Fuel Needs for Power generation
Keeping in view the requirements of long term-sustainability the preferred source for power generation should be
renewable non-fuel sources namely hydel, wind, solar and nuclear. As these resources are limited, thermal power from
coal, oil and gas are resorted to.
Production from non-fuel sources, however, is constrained by a few factors:•Nuclear – Policy constraints, uranium availability, date of commercialising fast breeder or
thorium based cycles.•Hydel – Adequate investigations, obtaining environmental clearance, making R&R
arrangements•Renewable – Snags in technology, high costs
The following targets have been adopted by official agencies. •Nuclear cumulative capacity 25,000 MW by 2030.•Hydel – 20% of total power generation by 2030.•Renewable – 5% of total electricity generated by 2030.
Non- Fuel based Power Generation
Total
Electricity
Supply Reqd (a)
Hydro –(20%)
(b)
Nuclear -
(c)
Fuel Based
=(a)-(b)-(c)-
(d)
2004-05 587 117 15 29 425
2009-10 862 172 25 43 622
2014-15 1201 240 41 60 860
2019-20 1764 353 66 88 1257
2024-25 2304 461 108 115 1620
2029-30 3385 677 175 169 2364
Year
All in Billion kWh.
Renewable(5%)
(d)
13
India Projected Fuel Needs for power Preference of fuel for power generation at the margin, is based on the costs of alternatives. Coal is the preferred fuel for power generation. Even at Rs. 1000/ ton, the fuel cost will work out to Rs.
0.70 per unit. If delivered price of Natural gas is $4/MMBTU, the fuel cost would be Rs. 1.40 per unit.
Even at distances above 1500 kilometers, coal is likely to emerge as the cheaper fuel. There are additional factors in favour of coal
• Predictability of future prices is higher in coal than in gas.• Long term fixed price contracts indexed to labour costs are possible in case of coal.
However, the recent shortages have led to a view that coal will not be available to support the power
development fully. Natural Gas will be the alternative.
Scenario – I Gas based generation would be as at
present, 13% of total thermal generation and rest 87%
will be from coal.
Year Total Thermal Electricity (BkWh)
Coal based
BkWh
Gas based
BkWh
Coal Req.
MMT
Gas Req.
BCM.
04-05 425 370 55 259 11
09-10 622 541 81 379 16
14-15 860 748 112 524 22
19-20 1257 1093 163 765 33
24-25 1620 1410 211 987 42
29-30 2364 2057 307 1440 61
Scenario-II Coal production will be constrained to a
growth rate of 5% considered as easily achievable and
the rest of power requirement would be using gas.
To arrive at total fuel needs of India, two alternative scenarios are developed.
Year Total Thermal Electricity (BkWh)
Coal based
BkWh
Gas based
BkWh
Coal Req.
MMT
Gas Req.
BCM.
04-05 425 370 55 259 11
09-10 622 472 150 331 30
14-15 860 614 246 430 49
19-20 1257 805 452 564 90
24-25 1620 1051 569 736 114
29-30 2364 1357 997 957 199
14
Energy Demand Scenarios
The total energy requirements both primary and secondary are summarized under the two scenarios. Essentially if India does not produce coal as required gas imports will have to substitute coal and this will increase the electricity price.
Year
Coal
MMT
Oil
MMT
Natural GasBCM
Total ElectricityB kWh
% which Non fuel based
Nuclear
Hydel
Renewable
2004-05 368 127 32 587 15 117 29
2009-10 509 152 41 862 25 172 43
2014-15 679 181 52 1201 41 240 60
2019-20 951 216 68 1764 66 353 88
2024-25 1204 259 85 2304 108 461 115
2029-30 1705 309 112 3385 175 677 169
Year
CoalMMT
Oil MMT
Natural GasBCM
Total B kWh
% which Non fuel based
Nuclear
Hydel
Renewable
2004-05 368 127 32 587 15 117 29
2009-10 461 152 55 862 25 172 43
2014-15 586 181 79 1201 41 240 60
2019-20 750 216 126 1764 66 353 88
2024-25 958 259 157 2304 108 461 115
2029-30 1222 309 250 3385 175 677 169
Further discussions in this presentation will be based on Scenario-I.
Scenario-I
Scenario-II
15
Energy Planning…
Scenarios are a tool for helping policy makers plan for the future – or rather
for different possible futures. They help us focus on critical uncertainties - on
the things we don't know about - and on the things we do know about.
They help us understand the limitations of our ‘mental maps’ of the world –
to think the unthinkable, anticipate the unknowable and utilize both to make
better strategic decisions.
Our approach:
1. The energy demand has to be met.
2. Indigenous fuel usage should be optimized.
3. All futuristic sources of energy supply should be exploited.
This leads to two scenarios:
1. Coal supply is adequate to meet all needs where it is economical.
2. Coal supply is constrained. Power Generation has to rely on gas for
the residual requirements.
16
Index
Indian Story
In this section we present an analysis of energy options based on resource endowments
Energy Needs & Planning
Energy Sources
Alternative Fuels
17
• Wind Potential 45000 MW• Potential exploited 1267 MW
•Tamilnadu 787 MW•Gujarat 166 MW•Andhra Pradesh 89 MW•Karnataka 37 MW•Kerala 2 MW •Madhya Pradesh 22 MW •Maharashtra 155 MW
•Hydro Potential 15000 MW• Himachal Pradesh 1624 MW• Uttar Pradesh 1472 MW• Arunachal Pradesh 1059 MW• Karnataka 652 MW• Maharashtra 599 MW• Kerala 466 MW• Madhya Pradesh 410 MW• Bihar & Zarkhand 367 MW
•Potential exploited 1341 MW
• Oil Reserves 732 Mn Tons• Gas Reserves 763 Bn Cu Mtr• Reliance Gas find 198 BCM• Cairn Gas Find 28 BCM• Present gas prod 30 BCM pa
Oil & Gas
• Coal Reserves 246 Bn Tons• Jharkhand 71.14 Bn Tons• Orissa 59.10 Bn Tons• Chattisgarh 38.13 Bn Tons• Total Coal Mines 561• Present production of Coal & Lignite in excess of 389 MT pa
Coal
•Biomass Potential 3500 MW• Maharashtra 1000 MW• Uttar Pradesh 1000 MW• Karnataka 300 MW• Andhra Pradesh 200 MW• Gujarat 200 MW• Punjab 150 MW
•Potential exploited 272 MW
Biomass
Small Hydro
Wind
• Municipal Potential 1000 MW• Industrial waste potential 700 MW• Projects implemented 9.5 MW• Projects under const. 5.2 MW• Projects under dev 21 MW
Waste
Sources of Energy
India has all forms of energy resources and they are available in all parts
18
Coal Production in India
The Coal & Lignite Production in India has leapfrogged more than 10 times from 32 MT in 1950-51 to about 389 MT in 2003-04, i.e. about 4.8% per annum. From 1980-81 to 2003-04 the increases are at 5.5% per annum.
Annual Coal & Lignite Production
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1950
-51
1970
-71
1976
-77
1978
-79
1980
-81
1982
-83
1984
-85
1986
-87
1988
-89
1990
-91
1992
-93
1994
-95
1996
-97
1998
-99
2000
-01
2002
-03
MT
19
Coal Reserves & Production
248 Billion Tonnes of Coal Reserves out of which 93 Billion Tonnes are proven. Of these, the coking coal needed for steel production is only a small part.Present Production Levels – 382MT (2004-05). Reserves can sustain over 100 years of use at this level.Productivity of Coal mines in India is very low, ranging from 152 tones to 2621 tones per miner per year, compared to 12,000 tons in Australia and US. Huge potential exists to increase the production and productivity.Industry essentially comprises two large Government owned companies CIL & SCCL.The production plans as now projected by the Industry, leave a large gap between demand and supply.
Coal Reserves:
Source: Coal Vision 2025.
Bn tonnes = Billion tonnes.
Category Total Coal Reserves (Bn
Tonnes)
Coking Coal reserves out
of Total Reserves
(Bn Tonnes)
Proved 93 17
Indicated 117 14
Inferred 38 2
Total 248 33
2004-05 2009-10 2014-15 2019-20 2024-25 2029-30 Avg growth
(%)
Demand as foresee*
368 509 679 951 1209 1705 6.2
Public sector production*
361 509 679 942 1086 1200 5.0
MTCoal : demand supply gap
* CIL / SCCL production plans are under frequent revisions.
20
Coal Sector - Concerns
Indian Coal Sector : Concerns
• Exploration and mine planning has lagged behind.• Exploration in deep coal deposits has been very slow and indifferent.• Underground mining continues with low technology and very low productivity.• The standards for rehabilitation of mine sites after open cast mining has not been
spelt out clearly and leads to disputes.• Land acquisition and environmental clearance lead to delays in new mining
projects.
Steps taken so far:
• State Governments allowed into coal mining• Public sector companies can mine and sell coal.• Captive Mining allowed in 1993• Coal placed on Open General License• Import duties reduced dramatically• Coal prices decontrolled in 2000• A Committee of Experts appointed to prepare a road map for coal sector
reforms.
21
Coal Sector – Strategies for Future
Liberalizing captive coal mining provisions.Use of modern technology to augment productivity and qualityAdoption of clean coal technologies, such as IGCC etc Allowing Private sector into coal mining and tradingReplacing Coal Linkages with Fuel Supply AgreementsAcquisition of Coal equities abroadCreate competition among public sector coal companies at the State and Central level.Rationalization of railway freightsInfrastructure status to coal industryClosing down uneconomic mines after duly compensating the affected stakeholders.
The Hope:
The coal industry consisting of only two companies has been able to achieve over 5% per annum growth. If more players are allowed into coal mining with adequate safeguard to workers and to coal conservation issues it is possible to step it up to 7%. China achieves an increase of over 100 million tonnes a year and is producing over 2000 million tonnes against India’s 400 million tonnes. Per capita coal consumption in India is slightly to be less than that of USA even in 2030.
22
Natural Gas
Natural Gas production stands at close at 32 BCM per annum and the reserves at 922 BCM
Growth in Production of Natural Gas (BCM)
1.4 2.4
18
29.5 29.7 31.4 32
0
10
20
30
40
1971 1981 1991 2001 2002 2003 2004
Figure 3.5: Reserves of Natural Gas (BCM)
62.29
410.65
729.79 762.95 750.71853.48
922.8
0100200
300400500600700
800900
1000
1971 1981 1991 2001 2002 2003 2004
• After a major jump in the production of
natural gas in late 90s, the production
has stagnated• With the success of 4 rounds of NELP,
the gas production is set to rise again.• The new gas finds especially in deep
off shore wells have added reserves.
• The new exploration licensing policy for gas is attracting private industry from India and abroad in large numbers. The mood in the industry is up beat.
23
Natural Gas – Demand Supply
Year Demand Supply
2004-05 36 34
2009-10 41 57
2014-15 52 85
2019-20 68 103
2024-25 85 ?
2029-30 113 ?
If coal supply is adequate the demand and supply of gas will be as in the table.
The supply of gas from domestic sources and as LNG imports and pipeline import of gas is under advanced stage of discussion. New finds of gas deposits and promise of more have raised hopes of increasing the use of gas for power generation in replacement of coal. India’s unique location of being close to some of the world’s largest gas deposits in Qatar, Oman, Iran and Central Asia has raised hopes to get piped gas from these sources. LNG is the next best option.
The price of gas defines the sectors and levels of use. At $4 per MMBTU and above gas can be used only in fertilizer, petrochemical and as auto fuel and domestic fuel. If the price of imported gas is less than $3 per MMBTU, gas can substitute coal for power generation and its demand can become very large.
24
Natural Gas
India has stepped up its quest for gas by resorting to NELP. The efforts to source gas from outside the country are also underway.
Blocks identified for exploration
Source : Directorate General of Hydrocarbons, Govt. of India
25
Natural Gas – Supply Options
2004-05 2009-10 2014-15 2019-20 2024-25
I. Domestic Supply 30 43* 43@ 45@ 45@
II. Coal Bed Methane 0 1 2 2 2
Sub Total (I + II) 30 44 45 47 47
III. Imports
A. LNG
1. Dahej Terminal 3 10 10 10 10
2. Hazira Terminal 0 3 3 3 3
3. Dabhol Terminal 0 - 7 7 7
4. Kochi Terminal 0 - 7 7 7
Sub Total (A) 3 13 27 27 27
B. Transnational Pipelines
1. Iran-Pakistan-India Pipeline
0 0 - 22 22
2. Myanmar-Bangladesh-India Pipeline
0 - 11 11 11
Grand Total 33 57 83 105 105
* includes 40 MMSCMD from Reliance K-G Basin. @ It is assumed that the additional gas finds will replace only the depleting production from the existing fields.
The important initiatives to augment gas supplies to India already finalize and under vigorous pursuit are as follows.
26
Petroleum
India is the sixth largest oil consumer in the world with a share of 3.1% of the world consumption. The dependence on import for oil has reached a level of 72%.
The crude refining capacity of India today is at 132 MT. India has achieved self sufficiency in refining, at the present demand level.
0.26 0.456.82 10.51
33.02
8.2919.14
32.26
57.75 33.37
32.43
3.46
106.97
116.01
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Years (1951-2004)(Production and Consumption Figures Pertain to the Year Ending of the Concerned Financial
Year)
Millio
n T
on
nes
Domestic Crude Oil Production Domestic Crude Oil Consumption.
27
Petroleum – Demand & Supply
Current Concerns• India has not been able to discover new crude
deposits• Private players under NELP are new and are yet to
strike oil• High volatility in the price ranging from 10% to
60% in one month will strain economic management
Strategies• Conservation and substitution possibilities to be
explored• Long term contracts with price-bands to be
secured through bilateral contracts• Acquisition of equity oil from outside the country
to be pursued
Measures Taken• Autogas and domestic gas can replace diesel and
kerosene• Mass rapid transport systems to reduce oil use• Transport system modernization• More efficient cars leading to hybrid motor
vehicles• Biodiesel/ Biofuel (liquid) explored
Year Oil MMT
2004-05 1272009-10 1522014-15 1812019-20 2162024-25 2592029-30 309
Demand on the Business as usual basis as projected in this study.
Rate of growth
Period Percentage
1980-81 to – 03-04
5.2
04-05 to- 14-15 3.7
14-15 to 29 3.6The growth rates are within manageable levels.
28
India Power Sector
India’s growth of power demand is
among the highest in the world. Indian
power system with 115 thousand MW of
installed capacity is today among the
largest in the world. Installed capacity is
projected to become 200 thousand MW
by 2014-15 and gross to over 600
thousand MW by 2029-30. Power is
generated from every possible source of
primary and secondary electricity.
Power reforms started in 1991 and are
ongoing.
Shortages abound and quality is poor.
Efforts to attract private capital has been
successful partially.
Electricity Act,2003 followed by National
Electricity Policy, Tariff Policy, Rural
Energy Policy and Electricity Rules have
opened a new chapter and gives hopes
that power sector will become vibrant in
the next 10 years.
Past Growth
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2004-05 2009-10 2014-15 2019-20 2024-25 2029-30
Ene
rgy
Dem
and
BkW
H
0.000
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity
Energy Required Capacity
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1970 1980 1990 2000 2003
En
erg
y S
up
ply
(B
kWh
)
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
Cap
acit
y (M
W)
Energy Supply (BkWh) Capacity (MW)
Year Energy Bkwh Required Capacity MW2004-05 587 117.4002009-10 862 169.0202014-15 1201 230.9602019-20 1764 332.8302024-25 2304 426.6702029-30 3385 615.454
Year Energy Supply (BkWh) Capacity (MW)1970 61.2 147091980 119.3 302141990 289.4 660862000 557.9 978842003 587 117000
Electricity Projected Demand
29
India Power Sector – Report on Reforms
What went wrong Corrections madePermissions and price determinate – tortuous procedures, time delays.
Most restriction removed. No approvals for generating plant investment.
Security of payment for power supply – doubtful.
Old dues of electricity entities securitized. Current payments covered by letter of credit
IPP had to sell to utilities Open access to transmission networks introduced and direct sale to any utility or bulk consumer permitted
Transfer frequency not maintained as per technical norms
Grid code enforced. Variance for standard frequency dramatically reduced by Grid code.
Tariff politically motivated – Irrational Regulatory Commissions set up to fix tariff in a transparent objective.
Planning – natural scale – rigid Decentralized planning by Distribution Companies. Trading and exchange of power encouraged.
Captive plants not encouraged Now encouraged. Group captive permitted. Sale of surplus by captives upto 49 % of generation allowed.
T & D Losses Technical loss reduction through investments under APDRP.
Commercial loss reduction by new electricity meters, stringent laws against theft.
Introduction of franchise to manage last mile service delivery.
Reform appeared anti-poor. New Electricity Policy mandating universal supply of power to all households by 2012 corrects this impression.
30
Developed 540 Mwe PHWRs &Construction in progress; Unit size
being scaled up to 680 MWe
Developed Front End & Back End Technologies of Complete
Fuel Cycle
Established Comprehensive Indigenous Capabilities for
Designing, Equipment Manufacturing, Constructing,
Commissioning, O&M of 220 MWe PHWRs
FIRST STAGE
Design for 500 MWe PFBR developed.
Construction to commence in June 2004 .
SECOND STAGE
Fast Breeder Test Reactor (40 MWt ) Set up
Indian Nuclear Power Program : Current Status
THIRD STAGE
Experimental reactor with U233 fuel in operation.
Thorium Bundles in PHWRs.
AHWR-300 Mwe being developed in BARC. Technology Demonstration for electricity generation from Thorium.
Bridge between the I & III Stages to be Launched in X plan
India has at present installed Nuclear Power capacity of 2770 MW which is about 2.4% of the total installed capacity.
• Nuclear power corporation owns and operates 14 reactors at 6 locations
• There are 8 more reactors under construction with a capacity of 3960 MW
The nuclear power program has seen the following transition
31
Indian Nuclear Power Programme
14 reactors at 6 sites under operation 2,770 Tarapur, Rawatbhata, Kalpakkam,Narora, Kakrapar and Kaiga
6 PHWRs under construction at 1,960Tarapur (2x540 MWe),Kaiga (2x220 MWe),RAPS-5&6(2x220 MWe)
2 LWRs under construction at 2,000 Kudankulam(2x1000 MWe)
PFBR at Kalpakkam (1 X 500 MWe) 500(Pre-project activity in progress)
Projects planned till 2020 13,900PHWRs(8x700 MWe), FBRs(4x500 MWe), LWRs(6x1000 MWe), AHWR(1x300 MWe)
TOTAL by 2020 21,180
CAPACITY (MWe)REACTOR TYPE AND CAPACITIES
India plans to have an installed Nuclear power capacity of about 21,180 MW by 2020
India’s Nuclear Power Programme is designed with the long term objective to serve as the source of supply to meet our energy needs when other sources get exhausted. It is a key element of the energy self reliance strategy.
32
Hydro Power
One of the most abundantly available source for power, though constrained by the vagaries of nature, India holds a potential to the tune of 150,000 MW
Installed capacity today is 23,488 MW which is just about 17% of the estimated hydro potential.
After the enactment of Electricity Act, 2003, a Hydro Electricity Initiative has taken to conduct a comprehensive total survey of all potential sides for hydro projects upto 50000 MW and to identify projects which can deliver power at less than US cents 5 per kWh. Nearly 7000 MW have been identified, already.
India has established mutually beneficial arrangements with Bhutan where projects constructed mostly with Indian capital are handed over to Bhutan Government for management and power is purchased at mutually agreed rates. About 300 MW is being purchased and a new project with over 1000 MW will be ready by 2006 . Further potential is over 10000 MW for imports from Bhutan. Nepal is also likely source.
The possibilities of developing power generation from multiple sources and the opportunity to import hydel power from neighbouring countries suggest that achievement of the required level of power supply is within reach.
33
Index
Indian Story
In this section we present analysis of renewable energy options for India
Energy Needs & Planning
Energy Sources
Alternative Fuels
34
Alternative Fuels
In the long long run we have to depend on renewables. India is among the few countries were all possible sources and technologies are under investigation and development. In respect of wind power, small hydro, bio-mass and coal-bed methane commercialization has been achieved. Gas-hydrate is a distant prospect, but the resources are huge. :
Sources: MNES, NPCIL, BITS-Pilani, Dept. of Ocean Development, Infraline, Indo-US Co-operation Report
Source Potential Achieved so far Technically proven Commercially viable
WindGross Potential: 45,000 MWTechnical Potential: 13,000 MW 1,870 MW Y Y
Small Hydro (upto 25 MW) 15,000 MW 1,663 MW Y Y
Bio-MassBagasse based Co-gen: 3,500 MWBio-Mass: 19,500 MWBio-Mass Gasification: 16,000 MW
537 MW308 MW35 MW
Y Y
Solar Thermal 35 MW / Sq Km - - -
Solar Photovoltaic22 MW / Sq Km
2.24 MW / Sq Km
Coal Bed Methane400 Billion Cubic Meters Private investors
have taken up auctioned areas.
Y Y
Underground Coal Gasification 200 MSCMPDCommercial production to start 2007-08
Y Y
Gas Hydrate Not yet known, but huge potential - -
Ocean Energy Research is going on - - -
Fuel Cell Research is going on - - -
Hydrogen Research is going on - - -
Geo-Thermal Energy Research is going on - - -
35
Today the energy scene in India is admittedly disappointing. A crisis is brewing.
The wakeup call has been given India has started responding.
We have the material resources. Coal is abundant enough to meet the thermal power requirements. Hydel resources within India and with the neighbouring countries holds promise of meeting all our needs. The new discoveries by private investors of gas from off-shore deep wells has opened a speculation whether India would need imported gas at all after 5-10 years. Oil will have to be imported – how much would depend on actions taken towards conservation of oil in transport sector introduction of new mass transport, more and development of environment friendly cost effective bio-liquid fuels. We can afford to buy our oil requirements if the current growth rates are kept up.
However, we are deeply aware that in the power sector improving governance including modernization and professionalisation and in the coal sector appropriate reforms in the policy environment to accelerate coal production are the key to India’s energy future. Achieving these would not be easy. But, We have the appropriate leadership at the top. India’s Prime Minister is arguably the most erudite and honest leader in the World. He has the reputation for having steered India over the foreign exchange crisis. He has now started looking into energy issues as priority. We have a technical competent manpower of adequate quantity and quality .
The will to overcome the crisis is emerging .
Summing up
36
Thanks
We were challenged by Hindu-rate of growth, we have over come !
We were challenged by Food Crisis, We have overcome !
We were challenged by Forex Crisis, We have overcome !
Now, we are being challenged by Energy Crisis,
We shall overcome !
Thanks !
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