The Role of Forest Bioenergy in 2050 Low Carbon Scenarios · The Role of Forest Bioenergy in 2050 Low Carbon Scenarios David B. Layzell, PhD, FRSC. Professor and Director, Kunbi Adetona,

TheRoleofForestBioenergyin

2050LowCarbonScenariosDavidB.Layzell,PhD,FRSC.ProfessorandDirector,

KunbiAdetona,MSc.PhDStudent,

CanadianEnergySystemsAnalysisResearch(CESAR)IniGaGve,Univ.ofCalgary.Web:www.cesarnet.caEmail:dlayzell@ucalgary.ca

CanadianMuseumofNature,ORawa–Sept13,2017

THEROLEOFFORESTBIOENERGYINCANADA’SENERGYFUTURE

Canada’sGreenhouseGas(GHG)Emissions&Targets

Energy–TransportaGon[202]

1990 2010 20300

200

400

600

800

MtC

O2e/yr

Year 2040

Energy–StaGonary[328]

Energy–FugiGve[57]

205020202000

Ind.proc.&prod.Use[51]

Agriculture[59]

Agriculture Waste[25]

Sept2017

[2015GHGsinMtCO2e/yr]

[722]

ModifiedfromECCC2016and2017NaGonalInventoryReports

EnergySystems(81%)

2009Copenhagen1997Kyoto

Commitment

-17%

-30%

-65%

-90%

2015Paris

2015Paris

Canada’sGHGChallenge

FailedFailed

Outline

1.  Canada’sEnergySystems!  Themagnitudeofthechallenge&opportunity

2.  BioenergyintheEnergySystemsof2050!  ‘PredicCon’,assumingtheworldisseriousabout

GHGreducCons

3.  TheSystemsChallenge

EnergyFlows-Total:Canada,2013

EnergySectors(uses4,000PJ)

But…Energyflowsaren’ttheproblem:

CFLOWSARE…

1oEnergy(29,000PJ)

947PJ

DemandSectors(uses9,000PJ)

(16,000PJ)

EnergyFlows-Total:Canada,2013

TotalFlows–Canada,2013ENERGY CARBON

HowwouldtheCflowschangeifallAgricultureandForestrywere

consideredaspartofenergysystems?

0

10

20

30KgC/G

J

Biom

ass

Coal

Oil

NGas

TotalFlows–Canada,2013ENERGY CARBON

AnthropogenicCarbonFlows–Canada,2013FOOD,FIBRE,FUEL&ELECTRICITY

200MtC

FUEL&ELECTRICITY

200MtC

41%more1ocarbonflow

Sun

CO2

"  IncludingFood&FibrepathwaysinCanada’senergysystemsincreasesCflowby41%,andthataddiGonalCisextractedfromair;

NOTE

"  CflowthroughAgric.&Forestry(171MtCor628MtCO2)issimilartooilrecovery(164MtCor601MtCO2).

"  MostofbiomassCreturnstotheatmosphere(notasaGHG).But,someCpassesthrough‘tempor-ary’storage(For:15MtC,600PJ).

ForestBiomassResourcePotenGal

500PJ/yr

PJ/yr MtC/yr

ForestResidues 370 10

UnusedAAC 600 16

Bugwood ? ?

FastGrowingtrees ? ?

TOTAL ~1000+ ~26+

PrimaryEnergy&CarbonAvailable

50%

30%

300PJ/yr

ConversionEfficiencytoBiofuel

Outline

1.  Canada’sEnergySystems!  Themagnitudeofthechallenge&opportunity

2.  BioenergyintheEnergySystemsof2050!  ‘PredicCon’,assumingtheworldisseriousabout

GHGreducCons

3.  TheSystemsChallenge

EnergyFlows-Total:Canada,2013

PersonalTransportaGon

Gasoline

Diesel

AviaGon

Ethanol1,372PJ

Fuel

2013 2050

Electric,Shared,AutonomousVehicles

Bio-basedjetfuel(need200+PJ/yr)

FreightTransportaGon

1,265PJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

CanadaFreight_Transport transportation energyusebyfuelType

NGL

electricity

ethanol

biodiesel

CNG

aviation_turbo_fuel

aviation_gasoline

heavy_fuel_oil

diesel_fuel_oil

Diesel

Gasoline

HeavyFuelOil

AviaGon

Fuel

2013 2050

LighterVehiclesandUrbanVehicles:Electric

Semi-trucksforheavy,LDTransport

Biojet?Electric

H2FuelCellelectric

CNG#RNG

DME(Upto

500PJ/yr)

Biomass

NG

Electricity

Oil

ResidenGalBuildings(2013)

1,592PJ

Fuel

ElectricHeatPumps

?Districtbiomasscombinedheatandpower,esp.withCCS

2013 2050

Commercial&InsGt.Bldgs

942PJ NGL

NaturalGas

Electricity

FuelOil

Fuel

2013 2050

ElectricHeatPumps(esp.groundsource)

?Districtbiomasscombinedheatandpower,esp.withCCS

EnergyUsingIndustries

2,661PJ

Coal/Petcoke

NG

Biomass

NGL

Electricity

FuelOil

Fuel

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Canadaindustrial energyusebyenrEndUseNFIndAll

Electrolysis_Other_MetalsElectrolysisAnode_ManufacturingElectrolysis_AluminumWater_HeatingSteam_and_Water_HeatingProcess_HeatElectric_ArcingProcess_Heat_and_SteamelecGenSteamSpace_ConditioningLightingMotive

MoGve

Electricity

Steam

ProcessHeat

&Steam

ProcessHeatWaterHeaGng

SpaceCondiGoning

Electrolysis

EndUse

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Canadaindustrial energyusebycanReg

Fertilizer_Prd

Smelt_refin

Cement

Mining

Forestry

Other_Man

Iron_Steel

Chemicals

Pulp_Paper

Chemicals

OtherManufact-

uring

Mining

ConstrucGon

Pulp&Paper

Iron

SmeltRefiningFerGlizer

Sector

2013 2050

SmallmodularNuclearCHP

CNGCHP,coupledtoCCS

BiomassorRNGCHP,ideallycoupledtoCCS

ElectrificaGon

Outline

1.  Canada’sEnergySystems!  Themagnitudeofthechallenge&opportunity

2.  BioenergyintheEnergySystemsof2050!  ‘PredicCon’,assumingtheworldisseriousabout

GHGreducCons

3.  TheSystemsChallenge

TheSystemsChallenge

WhatdoestheAtmosphereno\ce?

IfforestbiomassisleHinforest:

Ifforestbiomassremovedtomakebiofuels:

Versus

Foravibrantforestbioenergysectorinthefuture,thesystemslevel

quesConsmustbeaddressednow.

0

200

400

600

800

MtC

O2e/yr

Agriculture

1000

1990 2010Year 2000

AddingtheForestryFactor

HumanImpactonForestLandRemainingForestLand(FLFL)

+EmissionsfromCanada’sHarvestedWoodProducts

+EmissionsfromLargeForestFires(nothumancaused)

ModifiedfromECCC2016and2017NaGonalInventoryReports,includingvaluesprovidedforLULUCFinthe2017NIR

Conclusions1.  CanadahassignificantFeedstockresources2.  The2050opportuniGesforbioenergy/

biofuels:!  AviaGonFuels!  Heavytruckingfuels(lotsofcompeGGon)!  CombinedHeatandPower(esp.withCCS)

3.  CriGcalneedstoday:!  FigureoutfeedstocklogisGcs!  Improveconversionefficiency,reducecosts!  AddresstheSystemsChallengeheadon