The Measure of American Democracy Charles Stewart III June 1, 2012.
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The Measure of American Democracy
Charles Stewart III
June 1, 2012
• Who won?
• Who won?
• How would we know?
• Florida 2000 reminds us of what V.O. Key once wrote:
Over most of the United States, the conduct of elections is the most neglected and primitive branch of our public administration . . . .
V.O. Key, Southern Politics in State and Nation (1949
Have elections gotten better in the U.S. since 2000?
Have elections gotten better in the U.S. since 2000?
Have elections gotten better in the U.S. since 2000?
Have elections gotten better in the U.S. since 2000?
What do the data say?
What problems were unearthed in 2000?
What problems were unearthed in 2000?: Florida
1. Recount law and practice were a mess (leading to a near constitutional crisis)
2. Old voting machines (lost votes)
3. Poor ballot design (confused voters)
4. Poor registration systems (led to voters being turned away)
What problems were unearthed in 2000? Nationwide
1. Nationwide recount law and practice were a mess (leading to a near constitutional crisis)
2. Old voting machines (lost votes)
3. Poor ballot design (confused voters)
4. Poor registration systems (led to voters being turned away)
5. People registering by mail (possibility of fraud)
6. Physically disabled hindered from voting independently
7. No federal champion for improving elections
8. Felon disenfranchisement
What problems were unearthed in 2000?: The magnitude
Data sources: state election divisions; Current Population Survey, Voting and Registration Supplement
The response: The Help America Vote Act (HAVA)
Problem Solution(s)
Old voting machines $billions for new machinesLever machines & punch cards banned
Poor ballot design EAC mandate for research
Poor registration systems Mandates for new computerized systemsProvisional ballots as “fail safe”
People registering by mail ID requirement for most first-time voters
No federal champion EAC
Have elections gotten better in the U.S. since 2000?
• Yes, definitely– Voting machines
• Yes, somewhat– Voter registration systems
• No– Designing better ways to resolve election disputes– Improving polling place practices– Spurring research into best practices– Improving access for the disabled
Have elections gotten better in the U.S. since 2000?
• Q: How do we know?
Have elections gotten better in the U.S. since 2000?
• Q: How do we know?
• A: Data analysis
Improvements in voting machines
Improvements in voting machines
• Election data from elections divisions
Improvements in voting machines
• Election data from elections divisions
• Voting machine data from the EAC and Election Data Services
Improvements in voting machines
• Election data from elections divisions
• Voting machine data from the EAC and Election Data Services
• Net result: Fewer lost votes due to voting machines
– 1 million fewer in 2004
– 1.3 million fewer in 2008
Improvements in registration lists
• Data from the Voting and Registration Supplement of the Current Population Study
Improvements in registration lists
• Data from the Voting and Registration Supplement of the Current Population Study
• Fewer people failing to vote due to registration problems
– 0.92% of registered voters in 2000
– 0.74% in 2004
– 0.57% in 2008
We’re doing better.Do we feel better?
We’re doing better.Do we feel better?
Year Egotropic Sociotropic
2000 CBS/NYT; LAT Pew; NAES
2002 None
2004 CBS/NYT; Pew (2); ABC/WP (2); NAES (2)
CBS/NYT; Pew; ABC
2006 Pew (3); CNN; Fox; ABS/WP CNN; Gallup/USAT; Pew
2008 Gallup/USAT; Pew (2); SPAE Gallup/USAT; ANES; CBS/NYT; Pew; NAES
2010 Pew Pew
Source: Roper Center (mostly)
We’re doing better.Do we feel better?
We’re doing better.Do we feel better?
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