The Hive Think Tank: Talk by Mohandas Pai - India at 2030, How Tech Entrepreneurship Will Create A $10 Trillion Economy

INDIA AT 2030 - HOW TECH ENTREPRENEURSHIP WILL CREATE A $10 TRILLION ECONOMYT V MOHANDAS PAI

India is ready to retake its place as a top 3 economy in the world by 2030.“

INDIA AT A GLANCE

INDIA – KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2016 VS. 199125 YEARS’ SNAPSHOT POST-LIBERALISATION

INDIA’S GDP GROWTH % - LAST 10 YEARS

REGAINING GROWTH MOMENTUM

Expected GDP growth rate for 2016-17 is 7.5%

INDIA – GDP PROJECTIONS

India needs to grow at 8% CAGR to be a $10 Tril economy by 2035China’s GDP grew at an average of 9.9% p.a. from 1979 to 2011

THE WORLD IS CHANGING

INDIA & CHINA AT A GLANCE - CHINA HAS GROWN FASTER

TRENDS IN INFLATION (CPI)

SPEND ON SUBSIDYFINALLY SEEMS TO BE GETTING UNDER

CONTROL

With strong reforms and the use of JAM (Jan Dhan, Aadhar, and Mobile), subsidy leakage will be reduced

INDIA HAS A STRONG INDUSTRIAL BASE

WE HAVE A YOUNG POPULATION

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A YOUNG POPULATION

We are NOT an aging country!

HIGHER EDUCATION (HE) INFRASTRUCTURE IN INDIAGROWTH IS ABOUT PEOPLE, WE HAVE INCREASED ACCESS IN HE

WE HAVE ADEQUATE SAVINGS FOR INVESTMENT AND GROWTH

GDP BY SECTOR IN 2014 : INDIA VS CHINA

WE HAVE VERY DIFFERENT PATTERNS

INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTINDIA IS SPENDING MUCH BELOW ITS NEED AND CHINA, WAY ABOVE

INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTCHINA’S SPEND IS OVER TWICE THE RATE OF INDIA, ON A MUCH HIGHER GDP BASE IN THE LAST

20 YEARS

18

The Startup Ecosystem will help create a $10 Trillion GDP economy in India by 2030.“

S

3rd Largest startup

ecosystem in the World

19,400

startups

270% growth in 6 years

$80 Bil Value Created

INDIAN STARTUPS AT A GLANCE

Ind

ian

Star

tup

Ecos

yste

m3rd Largest Startup Ecosystem in the world + Fastest Growing

19,400 startups in India at present.

Indian startups raised $3.5 Bil funding in the first half of 2015 and $4.5 Bil in second half of 2015. Total investment in 10 years has crossed $50 Bil.

Indian startups raised $3.5 Bil across 815 deals in Q1, Q2 & Q3 in 2016, against $7.3 Bil that was invested across 639 deals during the same period in 2015

76.4% of startups that have raised funding in 2016 YTD are concentrated in Bengaluru, Mumbai and NCR-Delhi region.

NEW FLYWHEEL RAMPING UP

1998 - SW Services took

off

2015 - Startups take off

Result in 2016: - $175 Bil revenue- $110 Bil exports- 4.25 Mil People

Employed

10 year Projection: Fireflies lighting up the sky!- 100,000 Startups- Employment: 3.5

Mil - $500+ Bil in

Market Value - #2 after US- 30 Mil SMEs lifted

STARTUP LANDSCAPE BY CITY

19,400 Startups in India

Mostly concentrated in Bangalore (31.44%), Delhi (20%), Mumbai (13%) and Chennai (10%)

Bangalore strong in B2C

STARTUP VALUATIONS

B2C VALUATIONS

$9 bn

$6.5 bn

$5 bn$5 bn

$1 bn

STARTUP VALUATIONS

NASDAQ SEHK NSE BSE0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

22%

12%9% 8%

46%

16%13% 12%

Set to grow dramatically in coming years

No. of companies Market Cap

Tech

nolo

gy a

s a p

erce

ntag

e of

ove

rall

USE OF DIGITAL PLATFORMS

Startups look like?So what will the future of

AADHAAR – ZERO TO 1 BIL IN 5.5 YEARS

942M

600M

300M

100M

50M

THE EVOLUTION OF THE INDIA STACK – BUILT ON JAM

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

AEPS Aadhaar

Authentication

APB

Aadhaar eKyc

eSignUPI

Consent Architecture

Digilocker

GSTN

950 M

1005 M

196 M

Aadhaar

Mobile

JDY

2009

944 M

600 M

100 M

Source: Ericsson Mobility Report, PMJDY, Aadhaar Web Sites

ACCELERATED BY REGULATORY INNOVATION

Source: News Reports

BANK LIBERALIZATION

19691980

1993

2001 2014

2015

+14+6

+10+2 +2

+2145 Years 14 Banks in 3 Months

Ushering in a new ERA of

DIFFERENTIATED BANKING

BANK NATIONALIZATION

PRESENCE-LESS LAYER Aadhaar AuthenticationUnique digital biometric identity with

open access of nearly a Billion users

CONSENT LAYER Open Personal Data StoreProvides a modern privacy data sharing framework

PAPERLESS LAYERAadhaar e-KYC,

E-sign, Digital LockerRapidly growing base of paperless systems with billions of artifacts

CASHLESS LAYER IMPS, AEPS, APB, and UPIGame changing electronic payment systems and transition to cashless

economy

COMMERCE(GSTn)

CREDIT(RBI)

INVESTMENTS

(SEBI)OTHERS

I N D

I A

S

T A

C K

SKILLS

JAM Jan Dhan + Aadhaar + Mobile

WE WILL GO FROM DATA POOR TO DATA RICH NATION IN 5 YEARS!

Digital Identity

Paperless Process

Commerce

Payment

Social

Machine Intelligence & Automation

TO INCREASE MARKET SIZE BY 10X TO 50X,

THE COST OF DOING BUSINESS MUST BE BROUGHT DOWN!

Need a loan

Sees loan

offers

Accepts best offer

Receives loan

Gets paid

digitally

Repays loan

Agrees to share data

Data sharing norms &

tech

Credit marketplace

app

Credit market-place

paperless contract

Transaction a/c & app

Payment app

Payment app

Aadhaar/eKYC

digilocker

API for loan

offers

eSign Digilocker

UPI

authorization

api

UPI

UPI

Credit without friction will bring millions into the formal economy!

Paperless instant credit markets based on digital exhaust

● Digitize their supply chains

● Increase consumption of digital infrastructure - payments, logistics, etc.

● Leave digital footprints for service providers, and customers alike.

● Digitize their customers

● The best aggregators use these digital footprints to enhance their services!

NEW AGE PLATFORMS ARE DIGITIZING THEIR ECOSYSTEMS

Customers

Platforms

Service Providers Product

Providers

Partners

Jobs / Provide

rJobs = Service

Providers ×

Only 6,500 Employees

1.5 Mil Cars & Drivers

New Age PlatformsCreate a few, high-value jobs that can be leveraged to enable service providers.

Service ProvidersLarge number of service providersEach service provider creates multiple jobs

10,000 Hospitals200,000 Doctors,

Labs, etc.

1.5 Mil Cars 0.25 Mil Cars 100,000+ Merchants

5,000 Employees

6,500 Employees

8,000 Employees

4,500 Employees

100,000+ MerchantsLogistics, Support

23,000 Employees

Market E

stimates Only

Global

ACCELERATING CHANGE!

1. Bharat embracing Smartphones- Stayzilla sells more hotel rooms than

MakeMyTrip- Newshunt is bigger than Times of

India in readership

Aadhaar: open digital biometric identity

Paperless: E-sign, Digi-Locker and eKYC

Payment layer: IMPS and UPI

Country commercial transaction layer: GSTn

Open Privacy Consent Network: Dec launch

2. Open API “India Stack”- Aadhaar is 900 Mil – Bhamashah

huge opp.- IMPS bigger than Visa/MC- GSTn will see 3 Bil invoices/month- India will have largest e-sign user

base by Dec 2016- Democratized innovation

India Stack as Digital Infrastructure

Regulatory Policy

Market Making Policy via Challenge Grants

100s of Experiments - Low barriers to entry - Level playing field - Aligned to national issues - Rapid success/failure cycle

A robust

foundation to

enable innovative

solutions to

India’s hard

problems

Innovative Solutions to India’s Hard Problems - Commercially Viable - Far reaching consumer impact - Reinforces experimentation

India is optimizing to empower problem solvers. Startups will be the force multiplier to catapult the country into a $10 Trillion economy by 2030.

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