The Global Effort to Understand Carbon Dioxide James R. Mahoney, Ph.D. Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere NOAA Deputy Administrator.

The Global Effort to

Understand Carbon Dioxide

James R. Mahoney, Ph.D.Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere

NOAA Deputy Administrator Director: US Climate Change Science Program

September 26, 2005

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Outline

Carbon Dioxide Variability

Role of Atmosphere in Carbon Cycle

Role of Oceans in Carbon Cycle

Role of Terrestrial Processes in Carbon Cycle

Future Directions in Assessing the Carbon Cycle

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Long Term Record of Atmospheric CO2

Increase in CO2 in the past 100 years is unprecedented in ~450ky

Modern record shows increasing NH source throughout century

Interhemispheric difference has been increasing

Seasonal Cycle is largest in NH

Atmospheric CO2

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Atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory

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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

10 Minor CFC11 CFC12 N2O CH4 CO2

Ra

dia

tiveF

orc

ing

(W

m-2

)

Radiative Forcing by Long-Lived Atmospheric Gases

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Global Atmospheric Watch (WMO/GAW) Monitoring Sites for CO2

Monitoring Stations for Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

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Courtesy of World Data Centre For Greenhouse Gases

http://gaw.kishou.go.jp/wdcgg.html

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Data-Driven Interpretive Analysis:Identifying Global Sources and Sinks

Oceanic Processes

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Column inventory of anthropogenic CO2 in the ocean (mol m2).

High inventories are associated with deep water formation in the North Atlantic and intermediate and mode water formation between 30° and 50°S.

Total inventory of shaded regions is 106 ± 17 Pg C. (From Sabine et al. 2004)

Ocean Carbon Inventory

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Sea-air exchange of carbon dioxide

Terrestrial Processes

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Terrestrial biosphere takes up approximately three billion tons of human emitted carbon dioxide per year

Carbon Dioxide Partitioning

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Average concentrations of CO2 in marine surface air indicate that the continent of North America could be a net sink of CO2.

Or is this a more “local” effect that is caused mainly by sources/sinks in the ocean basins?

part

s pe

r m

illio

n

CO2 in Air:North Atlantic minus North Pacific

Future

Directions

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US Effort—Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)

Guides and directs federal research efforts

Answers emerging climate science questions addresses key climate research challenges

Involves 13 Federal Agencies/Departments

Overseen by Ministerial/Cabinet-level officials

Operates on a ~$2B annual expenditure

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CCSP Strategic Plan(www.climatescience.gov)

Chapter 3: Atmospheric Composition

Chapter 7: Carbon Cycle

Chapter 12: Observing and Monitoring the Climate System

S&A Product 2.2: Will provide a synthesis and integration of the current knowledge of the North American carbon budget and its context within the global carbon cycle. In a format useful to decisionmakers

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International Efforts— GEOSS

Leadership in development and implementation of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)

GCOS is a major contribution to GEOSS for climate observations

GEOSS supports integrated global observations of CO2 & related gases

Climate Technical Reference Document (USG document)

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Charles David Keeling1928—2005