The DTM Demographic Transition Model - MS. M SMITH · Demographic Transition Model APHuG . DTM •Seeks to explain the transition of a country from a high birth and death rate and

The DTM Demographic Transition Model

APHuG

DTM

• Seeks to explain the transition of a country from a high birth and death rate and low natural increase rate to low birth & death rates and low rate of natural increase

• Model based on UK’s population shifts

4 Stages + 5th?

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5?

Stage 1

• Only small societies with little contact to rest of world is in Stage 1

• Europe before industrialization

• Time of Low Growth • High CBR

• High infant mortality • Need workers for

agriculture • Religious beliefs

• High CDR • Disease • Famine • Sanitation • Poor health care • Competition for food • Lack of education

Stage 2

• High Birth rate • Falling Death rate

• Better health care • Improved hygiene • Improved sanitation • Improved food

production • Decreased infant

mortality rate • Population rises steadily Began for UK & US during

Industrial Revolution Africa, Asia, Latin America around 1950 Many African countries are still in this stage

Stage 3 • Birth rate starts to fall • Family planning • Lower infant mortality • Less workers needed • Increased standard of

living • Changing status of

women • Death Rate continues to

fall • Population continues to

grow UK/US late 1800’s Now – many South American countries China

Stage 4 • Low Growth • Birth Rate is low • Death rate is low • Population is steady • Typical of US and UK today

Stage 5?

• Slight fall in Birth rate • Death rate stable • NIR= gentle decrease • Declining population

• Why?

• Better health • Later marriages • Good health care • Reliable food supply • Living longer

Many European countries are headed is this direction

Population Pyramids and the DTM

• Population pyramids can clue you in to what Stage of the DTM a country is in.

Stage 1 Pyramids

Stage 2 Pyramids

Stage 3 Pyramids

Stage 4 Pyramids

Stage 5 Pyramids

Weaknesses of the DTM

• What does the model assume?

– All countries will develop

– All countries develop at the same speed

– That countries will never reach a point where population declines

– All countries BR and DR will follow the same pattern

Summary • In stage 1 the Birth rates and death rates are …………… The

BR is high because ……..The DR is high because …….

• In stage 2 the BR remains ………however the DR ………This is because ..… Examples of countries in stage 2 are …….

• In stage 3 the DR continues to …… slowly but the BR also starts to ………….. This is because ……Examples of countries in stage 3 are …….

• In stage 4 the BR is low because …………..and DR is low because ……………. Examples of countries in stage 4 are …….

• As a country enters stage 5 the .……… falls below the ……. and the population ……… Example of countries in stage 5 are …….