The draft London Plan Investment implications and their realism © 2003 Tony Travers.

The draft London Plan

Investment implications and their realism

© 2003 Tony Travers

The draft London Plan

“Forces driving change”

• Population

• Economy

• Environment

• Lifestyles

• Technology

• Social Justice

The draft London Plan

The need for a plan:• “The elimination of an elected government for

London in 1986 came at a particularly inappropriate moment for the capital. It came at the end of a planning legacy, which had at first encouraged, then presided over, the decentralisation of many of London’s key economic activities together with population dispersal”.

The draft London Plan

What occurred in the absence of a plan:• “Lacking its own strategic authority, London’s

economy developed and its population grew, without a clear vision of their place in the UK economy, without effective strategic planning, and without a clear assessment of the resources and policies required to deal with renewed growth….phenomenal growth….was not matched by sufficient investment”

The draft London Plan

The Draft London Plan states, therefore• earlier London planning had sought to

decentralise, reduce economic activity and cut the population

• decline stopped; growth resumed• the abolition of the GLC left the city unable

to grapple with the problems caused by growth

The draft London Plan

Thus……

• strategic planning was responsible for the decline in London’s population, economy and position within the UK

• this decline stopped for some (unstated) reason in the mid 1980s

• planning is now needed to cope with growth

The draft London Plan

The draft London Plan thus suggests:• London planning could be used to assist in

decentralisation, lowering economic activity, thinning-out population

• but, it could also be used to facilitiate a continuation of growth that spontaneously re-ignited in the 1980s

• the latter path has been chosen

The draft London Plan

Growth since the mid-1980s:

• Population up from 6.7/6.8 million to 7.2/7.3 million

• Employment up from 4.1 to 4.7 million– Concentrated in Centre, West

• Underground use at all-time record levels by 2001

The draft London Plan

• Infrastructure built between mid 1980s and 2002:

Transport

– Docklands Light Railway + extensions– Jubilee Line extension– Croydon Tramlink– Heathrow Express– Thameslink services– New rolling stock on Tube, commuter lines

The draft London Plan

• Infrastructure built between 1981 and 2001:Housing

– Total dwellings up from 2.682 million to 3.067 million (+14.3%)

Offices– Total office/industrial space up so as to

accommodate 600,000 additional workers• Canary Wharf alone = +10m sq ft

The draft London Plan

• Thus, London managed to develop new homes, offices, transport capacity in the period 1986 to 2000

• But, still a perception that planning is needed to allow the city to develop further

• Draft London Plan accepts population and job growth on a predict-and-provide basis

The draft London Plan

The Mayor’s draft plan accepts the following:• Population: up from 7.4 to 8.1 million

• Jobs: up from 4.5 to 5.1 million

• Households up from 3.1 to 3.4 million - an extra 450,000 homes

The draft London Plan

• Infrastructure planned to accommodate this growth:– Transport– Housing– Offices– Schools, hospitals– Waste Management

The draft London Plan

Transport

• East London line

• CrossRail 1 (East-West line)

• Thameslink 2000

• CrossRail 2 (Hackney – South West)

• OrbiRail

The draft London Plan

Housing• Target of 458,000 dwellings: 1997 to 2016• 23,000 per annum • Current average closer to 15,000 pa• Boroughs expected to ensure 35 to 50 per

cent are “affordable”• Planning permissions to demand affordable

units

The draft London Plan

Offices• Target of 463,000 office spaces: 2001 to

2016, of which,– Central 142,000– East 223,000– West 60,000– North 15,000– South 23,000

The draft London Plan

• Offices will be provided by private sector, though the London Plan would skew development heavily to the East

• Housing will depend on a rise in overall level of dwelling completions, and on willingness of developers to fund “affordable” stock

• Need for multi-billion £ rise in public subsidy

The draft London Plan

• Transport - costs– East London Line: c£1.5 billion– CrossRail 1: £4 to £8 billion (Options…)– Thameslink: £1 to £2 billion– CrossRail 2: £4 to £6 billion– OrbiRail: ?– Bus subsidy will need to rise from £250m to

£1bn per year…..

The draft London Plan

• Housing, transport infrastructure required by London Plan would be very costly

• Funding would be required for both, and for new schools, hospitals

• Central government funding for London has fallen from 16.5 to 16 per cent of UK total in past five years

The draft London Plan

• Tax resources available to the Mayor of London:– £0.55 billion (2002-03)

• Total council tax of Mayor and boroughs– £3.5 billion (2002-03)

• Treasury tax take:– UK: £400 billion– London only: c£60 billion

The draft London Plan

• Achievement of London Plan thus requires major Treasury investment in London– Olympics fiasco– Stalled Thameslink, CrossRail and East London

line projects• PPP for Tube delivers only from 2012 onwards

– No major rise in housing funding for 2003-04– Cuts in London’s RSG for 2003-04 and beyond– Chancellor not well disposed to London?

The draft London Plan

The London Plan problem• To achieve the Plan’s objectives, central

government will have to increase public expenditure on London

• No evidence this will happen• Either London will have to be given new

means to fund own investments, or….• The random, chaotic, development of the

1990s will continue