Transcript
DIVERSITY EXPLOSION
HOW NEW RACIAL DEMOGRAPHICS!ARE REMAKING AMERICA
#DiversityExplosion
Source: analysis of US Census data 1980 2010200019901970 2020 2030 2040 20500
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225Millions
FIGURE 1-1
U.S. White and Minority Populations, 1970–2050
Whites
Source: U.S. censuses and Census Bureau projections, various years.
Millions
Minorities
0
50
100
150
200
225
175
125
75
25
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Other races:0.5%
Whites:63.7%
Blacks: 12.2%
0.7%
Hispanics:16.3%
Asians:4.7%
2+ races: 1.9%
Whites
Source: 2010 U.S. census and Census Bureau projections.
Blacks AmericanIndians and
Alaska Natives
Asians 2+ RacesHispanics
OLD MINORITIES
PROJECTED GROWTH, 2010–50U.S. RACE PROFILE, 2010
NEW MINORITIES
FIGURE 1-2
U.S. Race Groups and Projected Growth
193%
121%102%
27%37%
–6%
American Indians andAlaska Natives
FIGURE 1-1
U.S. White and Minority Populations, 1970–2050
Whites
Source: U.S. censuses and Census Bureau projections, various years.
Millions
Minorities
0
50
100
150
200
225
175
125
75
25
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Other races:0.5%
Whites:63.7%
Blacks: 12.2%
0.7%
Hispanics:16.3%
Asians:4.7%
2+ races: 1.9%
Whites
Source: 2010 U.S. census and Census Bureau projections.
Blacks AmericanIndians and
Alaska Natives
Asians 2+ RacesHispanics
OLD MINORITIES
PROJECTED GROWTH, 2010–50U.S. RACE PROFILE, 2010
NEW MINORITIES
FIGURE 1-2
U.S. Race Groups and Projected Growth
193%
121%102%
27%37%
–6%
American Indians andAlaska Natives
U.S. white and minority populations, 1970-2050
Minorities
Whites
21st Century Racial Population Trends
- Rapid growth of “new minorities”
- Diminished growth and rapid aging of whites
- Black advances and migration reversals
- Shift to “no racial majority” nation
Demographic Dynamics
Diversity by Migration “from the melting pot, out”
Diversity by Generation “from the bottom, up”
Under 5
5–17
18–35
35–49
50–64
65–74
85+
Age
51%
55%
58%
64%
73%
79%
85%
22%
20%
16%
10%
7%
5%
25%
4%
4%
5%
5%
4%
4%14%
14%
13%
12%
11%
9%
7%
1
Under 5
5–17
18–35
35–49
50–64
65–74
85+
Age
51%
55%
58%
64%
73%
79%
85%
22%
20%
16%
10%
7%
5%
25%
4%
4%
5%
5%
4%
4%14%
14%
13%
12%
11%
9%
7%
Cultural Generation Gap
Under 5
5–17
18–35
35–49
50–64
65–74
85+
AgePopulation Composition, by Age and Race, 2010
Source: analysis of US Census data
Blacks Asians HispanicsWhites Other races 2+ races
51%55%58%64%73%79%85%
14%14%
13%12%
11%9%
7%
25%22%
20%16%
10%7%5%
Youth and Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 2010-40
Source: analysis of US Census data
WHITES ASIANS BLACKS HISPANICS
FIGURE 2-3 Projected Change in Labor Force–Age Population by Race, 2010–30
Millions
Source: U.S. Census Bureau projections.
–15
–10
–5
0
5
10
15
20
Blacks Asians HispanicsWhites
Under 5
5–17
18–35
35–49
50–64
65–74
85+
FIGURE 2-4Cultural Generation Gap: Population Composition, by Age and Race, 2010
Other races 2+ races
Age
Source: 2010 U.S. census.
51%
55%
58%
64%
73%
79%
85%
22%
20%
16%
10%
7%
5%
25%
4%
4%
5%
5%
4%
4%14%
14%
13%
12%
11%
9%
7%
{New figure to come}
FIGURE 2-5 Youth and Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 2010–40
TOTAL POPULATIONRatio WHITES HISPANICS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Old-age dependency ratio(Population age 65 and above as percent of population age 18–64).
Youth dependency ratio(Population under age 18 aspercent of population age 18–64).
Source: U.S. Census Bureau projections.
WHITES ASIANS BLACKS HISPANICS
FIGURE 2-3 Projected Change in Labor Force–Age Population by Race, 2010–30
Millions
Source: U.S. Census Bureau projections.
–15
–10
–5
0
5
10
15
20
Blacks Asians HispanicsWhites
Under 5
5–17
18–35
35–49
50–64
65–74
85+
FIGURE 2-4Cultural Generation Gap: Population Composition, by Age and Race, 2010
Other races 2+ races
Age
Source: 2010 U.S. census.
51%
55%
58%
64%
73%
79%
85%
22%
20%
16%
10%
7%
5%
25%
4%
4%
5%
5%
4%
4%14%
14%
13%
12%
11%
9%
7%
{New figure to come}
FIGURE 2-5 Youth and Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 2010–40
TOTAL POPULATIONRatio WHITES HISPANICS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Old-age dependency ratio(Population age 65 and above as percent of population age 18–64).
Youth dependency ratio(Population under age 18 aspercent of population age 18–64).
Source: U.S. Census Bureau projections.
WHITES ASIANS BLACKS HISPANICS
FIGURE 2-3 Projected Change in Labor Force–Age Population by Race, 2010–30
Millions
Source: U.S. Census Bureau projections.
–15
–10
–5
0
5
10
15
20
Blacks Asians HispanicsWhites
Under 5
5–17
18–35
35–49
50–64
65–74
85+
FIGURE 2-4Cultural Generation Gap: Population Composition, by Age and Race, 2010
Other races 2+ races
Age
Source: 2010 U.S. census.
51%
55%
58%
64%
73%
79%
85%
22%
20%
16%
10%
7%
5%
25%
4%
4%
5%
5%
4%
4%14%
14%
13%
12%
11%
9%
7%
{New figure to come}
FIGURE 2-5 Youth and Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 2010–40
TOTAL POPULATIONRatio WHITES HISPANICS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Old-age dependency ratio(Population age 65 and above as percent of population age 18–64).
Youth dependency ratio(Population under age 18 aspercent of population age 18–64).
Source: U.S. Census Bureau projections.
WHITES ASIANS BLACKS HISPANICS
FIGURE 2-3 Projected Change in Labor Force–Age Population by Race, 2010–30
Millions
Source: U.S. Census Bureau projections.
–15
–10
–5
0
5
10
15
20
Blacks Asians HispanicsWhites
Under 5
5–17
18–35
35–49
50–64
65–74
85+
FIGURE 2-4Cultural Generation Gap: Population Composition, by Age and Race, 2010
Other races 2+ races
Age
Source: 2010 U.S. census.
51%
55%
58%
64%
73%
79%
85%
22%
20%
16%
10%
7%
5%
25%
4%
4%
5%
5%
4%
4%14%
14%
13%
12%
11%
9%
7%
{New figure to come}
FIGURE 2-5 Youth and Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 2010–40
TOTAL POPULATIONRatio WHITES HISPANICS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Old-age dependency ratio(Population age 65 and above as percent of population age 18–64).
Youth dependency ratio(Population under age 18 aspercent of population age 18–64).
Source: U.S. Census Bureau projections.
WHITES ASIANS BLACKS HISPANICS
FIGURE 2-3 Projected Change in Labor Force–Age Population by Race, 2010–30
Millions
Source: U.S. Census Bureau projections.
–15
–10
–5
0
5
10
15
20
Blacks Asians HispanicsWhites
Under 5
5–17
18–35
35–49
50–64
65–74
85+
FIGURE 2-4Cultural Generation Gap: Population Composition, by Age and Race, 2010
Other races 2+ races
Age
Source: 2010 U.S. census.
51%
55%
58%
64%
73%
79%
85%
22%
20%
16%
10%
7%
5%
25%
4%
4%
5%
5%
4%
4%14%
14%
13%
12%
11%
9%
7%
{New figure to come}
FIGURE 2-5 Youth and Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 2010–40
TOTAL POPULATIONRatio WHITES HISPANICS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Old-age dependency ratio(Population age 65 and above as percent of population age 18–64).
Youth dependency ratio(Population under age 18 aspercent of population age 18–64).
Source: U.S. Census Bureau projections.
Old-age Dependency Ratio Youth Dependency Ratio
Demographic Dynamics
Diversity by Generation “from the bottom, up”
Diversity by Migration “from the melting pot, out”
Under 5
5–17
18–35
35–49
50–64
65–74
85+
Age
51%
55%
58%
64%
73%
79%
85%
22%
20%
16%
10%
7%
5%
25%
4%
4%
5%
5%
4%
4%14%
14%
13%
12%
11%
9%
7%
1
Melting Pot, New Sun Belt, and Heartland America
Melting PotNew Sun BeltHeartland
San Francisco
Los Angeles
HoustonMiami
ChicagoNew York City
Source: analysis of US Census data
Hispanic Concentration Areas and New Hispanics Destinations
Hispanic concentration/modest growth (33 metros)
Hispanic concentration/ fast growth (44 metros)
New Hispanic destinations (145 metros)
Charlotte
Omaha
Atlanta
Source: analysis of US Census data
Counties with Minority Overrepresentation
Source: analysis of US Census data
BlacksHispanicsAsiansOther2+ racesNone
Metropolitan Chicago and Atlanta Black Populations, 1970-2010
1.81.61.41.21.0
0.60.4
0.8
0.20.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Chicago
Atlanta
millions
Source: analysis of US Census data
Trends Towards Integration
- Melting Pot Cities and Suburbs
1990
2000
2010
1990
2000
2010
1990
2000
2010
1990
2000
2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
7478
5457
62
47
5459
51
44
37
77
Percent of Residents Residing in Suburbs, top 100 metros
Source: analysis of US Census dataWhite Asian Hispanic Black
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010
Trends Towards Integration
- Melting Pot Cities and Suburbs
- Reduced Neighborhood Segregation
FIGURE 9-1Black-White Segregation: Average Levels for Metropolitan Areas, 1930–2010Segregation levela
Source: Cutler, Claeser and Vigdor (1991) Appendix A1 for 1930–1980, U.S. Census, 1990–2010. aSegregation levels represent the percent of blacks who would have to change neighborhoods to be completely integrated with whites. Values range from 0 (complete integration) to 100 (complete segregation).
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1970 1990b 2010b
Chicago Detroit Cleveland Dallas Atlanta Houston
aSegregation levels represent the percent of blacks who would have to change neighborhoods to be completely integrated with whites. Values range from 0 (complete integration) to 100 (complete segregation). b1970 pertains to all blacks, while 1990 and 2010 pertain to non-Hispanic blacks.
Source: Douglas S. Massey and Nancy Denton, American Apartheid: Segregation and the Making of the Underclass (Harvard University Press, 1993) for 1970; 1990 and 2010 U.S. censuses.
FIGURE 9-2
Black-White Segregation in Selected Metropolitan Areas, 1970–2010Segregation Levela
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Black-White Average Segregation Level, 1930-2010
Trends Towards Integration
- Melting Pot Cities and Suburbs
- Reduced Neighborhood Segregation
- Multiracial Marriage and Identity
0
14
12
16
10
8
6
4
2
2008-2010NEW MARRIAGES
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010ALL MARRIAGES
Multiracial Marriages as a Percent of all Marriages
4.6%
0.4% 0.7%
3.2%
6.7%
8.4%
15.2%
Trends Towards Integration
- Melting Pot Cities and Suburbs
- Reduced Neighborhood Segregation
- Multiracial Marriage and Identity
- Extending the Political Battleground
Minorities as Share of Eligible Voters, 2012
5%-14%
25%-34%15%-24%
34% and over
Under 5%
States Won by Democratic and Republican Candidates
Democrat win
Democrat win, due to minority support
Republican win
2004 Election
States Won by Democratic and Republican Candidates
Democrat win
Democrat win, due to minority support
Republican win
2008 Election
States Won by Democratic and Republican Candidates
Democrat win
Democrat win, due to minority support
Republican win
2012 Election
William FreySenior Fellow
wfrey@brookings.edu#DiversityExplosion
D IVERSITY EXPLOSION
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