The CEDSS Model and the Scottish case study Gary Polhill and Nick Gotts 1.

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The CEDSS Model and the Scottish case study

Gary Polhill and Nick Gotts

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Outline

The CEDSS model

Stakeholder Advisory Group input

Demonstration of the CEDSS model

Data sources, refining the model

Future scenarios for CEDSS

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The CEDSS ModelCommunity Energy Demand Social Simulator

Households located in a street-network, making decisions about buying energy-using and energy-saving appliances and equipment.

Households’ energy use, and expenditure on energy and energy-related equipment, is tracked over time.

Data for runs of the model covering the period 2000-2010 is drawn from a range of publicly-available sources, and from the first (2010) GILDED survey.

Runs covering the period 2010-2050 are in preparation.

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Stakeholder Advisory Group InputDemo of prototype model followed by Knowledge Elicitation Exercise:

Post-it session

Discussion of post-its

Opportunity to add new post-its

Index card sorting exercise 1: Categories that made

sense to participants

Index card sorting exercise 2: Ontological categories

predefined by us Entities Processes Relationships Attributes

“Using the picture as a guide, identify anything associated with household energy

use or household energy activities”

April 2010 SAG meeting

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Index Card Sorting 1

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Index Card Sorting 2

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Ontology from the index cards

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Ontology from another meeting in Budapest

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Demonstration of the CEDSS model

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Refining the CEDSS Model

Input dataGILDEDsurvey

ONSstatistics

DECCstatistics

SG statistics

Argoscatalogues

Etc.

Calibrationdata

Validationdata

CEDSS

Freeparameters

Results

Comparison

Comparison

CEDSS Future Scenarios

Input data

Peer-reviewedpapers (appliancePrices, efficiency)

CEDSS

Freeparameters

Results

PolicyImplications

OECD/IEAProjections(energy savings)

EC scenarios (fuel prices)

GILDED survey(starting point)