Transcript
Capturing the opportunities from the New Digital World
Barcelona, February 15th, 2011
A view from the top
César AliertaChairman & CEO
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Index
A growth and dynamic industry
ICT sector challenges
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A growth and dynamic industry
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(Bn USD) 2010F ICT Market
CAGR 2007-10F
CAGR 2010F-14F
North America 1,042.9 1.3% 4.4%
Europe 916.0 -3.5% 2.3%
Asia & Pacific 894.0 6.3% 5.4%
Latin America 263.6 5.9% 6.1%
Middle East and Africa
212.4 3.5% 4.8%
Worldwide 3,329.0 1.5% 4.3%
ICT industry : back to solid growth rates
Source: Gartner Market Databook (Oct 2010)
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Apps & Services
Customers
We are very positive about our industry future
GreatDigital
Opportunity
DevicesApps
Customers
Devices
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Telco industry growth will be driven by Fixed and Mobile Broadband
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Net adds of accesses 2010F – 2014F
2.018 Mill
85% Mobile
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91% Emergingmarkets
* BB: Fixed BB + 3G+ suscribers)Source: Pyramid Data Forecast (Jan 2011)
Total accesses(Million)
CAGR
4.1%
7.3%
6.6% CAGR 2010 - 2014
MBB: 31% FBB: 11%
DevicesApps
Customers
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Improved user interface devices and M2M new applications are boosting demand growth
DevicesApps
Customers
From Internet of People toInternet of Things
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Massive smartphone uptake DevicesApps
Customers
Source: Strategy AnalyticsEmerging markets: Latin America, Eastern Europe, MEA, and Asia Pacific (ex-Japan, South Korea and Australia)
Worldwide Smartphone Installed Base*(Million)
CAGR 2010-2014
Emerging Economies*: 32%
Advanced Economies: 24%
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Digitalization of the real economy broadens the scope of our market
DevicesApps
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis - U.S. national income and product accounts (NIPAs) (Aug 2010)
Customer expenditure breakdown 2009
Customers
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Telco players have a key role to play in the ICT ecosystem
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Telco as service platforms
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ICT sector challenges
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Apps & Services
Customers
This growth opportunity is supported by networks
Networks
DevicesApps
Customers
Devices
Development of NGN and upgrade of existing ones is needed to allow the exponential broadband growth
Price no longer a barrier for uptake of mobile data
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Time
Broadband capacity /user
EDGE
UMTS
HSxPA
LTEADSL
ADSL2+VDSL
TODAY
FTTHGPON IMT
Advanced
FTTHNG-GPON
Technology evolution
DevicesApps
Network
Heavy investments are needed - Who is going to invest?
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Mobile data growth increases the importance of the Fixed network
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… Fixed network will be keyFor the evolution of mobile network…
New Wireless Access Technologies require bigger network capabilities
New Wireless Network Architecture need sites nearer to the customers
Growth of mobile traffic
LTE Nodes capacity
> x10
# Nodes (long term)
> x10
>> x10
BACKHAUL
Every Mobile Base Station will have to be connected by Fiber Fixed Network
POINTS OF PRESENCE
Massive Points of Presence in buildings (home/enterprise)
MULTIMODE
Intensive Use of Technologies usually characterized as “fixed” ones: WiFi,
all-IP, video…
INTERNATIONAL
Strength of capacities in submarine cables and satellite
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Expected traffic increase will require incremental CapEx, both in Fixed and Mobile Networks
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DevicesApps
Network
Source: Oppenheimer, A.T. Kearney analysis. FTTx investment assuming 50% household coverage by 2014
Fixed Internet Network ~26
~ 65
CapEx Trendlineat current level
A.T. Kearney EU 27 Capex required estimationCumulated 2010 - 2014
Mobile Networks(3G and LTE)
~ 10 +~ 116 in FTTx
~ 21 Bn€
Additional CapEx requiredBn €
accesses
International Office
Telcos are the main contributors to investment and employment inour industry
Telco
IT
37 billion€1
3 billion€1
Investment (CAPEX)
2.0 million2
2.9 million3
Employment
0.03 billion€1 10,0005Internet
1 The 2009 EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard2 European Business. Facts and figures. Edition 2009. Eurostat. EU-27 in 20053 European Business. Facts and figures. Edition 2009. Eurostat. EU-27 in 2006 for Business services-Computer and related activities4 Digiworld-2009. IDATE
5 Estimated Google’s employees in Europe from 20,222 worldwide (December 2008) http://investor.google.com/releases/2008Q4_google_earnings.html
6 Online advertising – Western Europe – Strategy Analytics
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European MarketIllu
strative
13 billion€
0.4 billion€
Investment (CAPEX)
0.7 million
0.5 million
Employment
0.01 billion€ >3,000
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Latam Market
Content and service providers hardly contribute to network costs
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Current regulation doesn’t guarantee necessary investments
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Communications, Apps. & Services
Telco operators
Regulated
Not regulated
Internet playersDevice suppliers
Fragmented
Concentrated
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Our industry has very positive growth prospects, driven by mobile data
New business models are needed to finance network investments that will make sustainable the whole internet ecosystem based on a virtuous circle of growth . Cooperation within the industry is essential to get the most of the digital world
New engagement of telecom operators with content providers is needed to be able to deliver contents with new quality requirements
Regulation should allow the recovery of network costs, promoting investment, traffic efficiency and fostering new services development
Conclusions
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