Teaching Ecological Economics: Climate, Energy, Water · Solar photovoltaic 6500 340 Concentrated solar power 4600 240 Total global energy use in 2006: 15.8 Trillion Watts ... International

Teaching Ecological Economics:

Climate, Energy, Water

International Society for Ecological Economics

Washington, D.C. June 29, 2016

Jonathan M. Harris and Anne-Marie Codur

http://ase.tufts.edu/gdaeCopyright © 2015 Jonathan M. Harris

Figure 18.1 Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuel Consumption, 1860-2010Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/trends.htm, accessed

November 2013.

Figure 18.3: Per-Capita Emissions of Carbon by

Country

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, International Energy Annual 2008.

17.62

9.19 9.26

5.73

6.52

4.07

2.41

1.45

0.37

0

5

10

15

20

UnitedStates

Germany Japan France China Mexico Brazil India Bangladesh

Met

ric

Ton

s o

f C

O2

Pe

r C

apit

a

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120

Ca

rbo

n E

mis

sio

ns

(B

illio

n T

on

s C

arb

on

)

Year

550 ppm

450 ppm

Figure 18.10 Carbon Stabilization Scenarios (450 and 550

ppm CO2) Source: Adapted from Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, http://www.ipcc.ch/

Figure 3: Business as Usual, Paris Pledges, and 2° C Path

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/11/23/world/carbon-pledges.html?_r=1

Can Renewable Energy Provide a

Solution to Climate Change?

• Long-term link between economic growth and carbon

emissions

• Need to “decouple” economic activity from carbon

emissions

• Micro issues: Market pricing and policy actions

determine speed of transition

• Macro issues: An end to growth, or a new kind of energy

economy? Or both?

Global Energy Consumption by Source, 2012

Source: International Energy Agency (IEA 2013)

Oil31.5%

Coal28.8%

Natural Gas21.3%

Nuclear 5.1%

Hydropower 2.3%

Biomass 10.0%

Wind, solar, geothermal

1.0%

Availability of Global Renewable Energy

Source: Jacobson and Delucchi (2011); U.S. Energy Information Administration;

Stanford Engineering News, http://engineering.stanford.edu/news/wind-could-meet-many-times-world-

total-power-demand-2030-researchers-say

Energy Source

Total Global

Availability (trillion

watts)

Availability in Likely-

Developable Locations

(trillion watts)

Wind 1700 40 – 85

Wave > 2.7 0.5

Geothermal 45 0.07 – 0.14

Hydroelectric 1.9 1.6

Tidal 3.7 0.02

Solar photovoltaic 6500 340

Concentrated solar power 4600 240

Total global energy use in 2006: 15.8 Trillion Watts

Infrastructure Requirements for Supplying All Global

Energy in 2030 from Renewable Sources

Source: Jacobson and Delucchi (2011).

Energy Source

Percent of 2030

Global Power

Supply

Number of

Plants/Devices Needed

Worldwide

Wind turbines 50 3,800,000

Wave power plants 1 720,000

Geothermal plants 4 5,350

Hydroelectric plants 4 900

Tidal turbines 1 490,000

Rooftop solar PV systems 6 1.7 billion

Solar PV power plants 14 40,000

Concentrated solar power

plants

20 49,000

TOTAL 100

Land requirement: about 2% of total global land area.

(Can be combined with agricultural uses)

Global Potential for Energy Efficiency

Source: Blok et al. (2008) Global status report on energy efficiency 2008. Renewable Energy and Energy

Efficiency Partnerships. www.reeep.org

Oil28%

Coal29%

Natural Gas22%

Nuclear6%

Hydro-power

3%

Business As Usual ScenarioTotal Demand: 18,048 Mtoe

Non-Hydro

Renewables

12%

Oil26%

Coal17%

Natural Gas20%

Nuclear11%

Hydro-power

3%

Aggressive Climate Change Scenario Policy

Total Demand: 14,920 Mtoe

Non-Hydro

Renewables

23%

Source: International Energy Agency, 2011.

Projected 2035 Global Energy Demand, by Source

Growth of Solar PV and Wind Installations (2003-2012)

Source: Worldwatch Institute (2014).

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250

Nuclear

Coal

Gas combined cycle

Hydroelectric

Wind-offshore

Wind-onshore

Solar thermal electricity

Solar PV, utility scale

$/MWh

Levelized Cost of Electricity for New Generation

EIA Lazard

Sources: http://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-v8-abstract/

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Wind

Photovoltaics

Hydropower

Biomass

Nuclear

Natural gas

Oil

Coal

Eurocents per kilowatt-hour

Externality Cost of Various Electricity Generating Methods,

European Union

Source: Owen, A. D. 2006. "Renewable energy: externality costs as market barriers."

Energy Policy 34: 632-642.

Solar Energy Price Decreases, 1998-2013

Source: Barbose, G., S. Weaver and N. Darghouth. 2014. Tracking the Sun VII: an historical

summary of the installed price of photovoltaics in the United States from 1998 to 2013. SunShot

Initiative, U.S. Department of Energy

Projected further decreases in solar costs, 2015 - 2040

Source: Feldman et al 2014. Photovoltaic System Pricing Trends: historical, recent, and near-term projections. U.S.

Department of Energy SunShot Initiative: http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/62558.pdf

Source: Solar Energy Industries Association, 2014. “Solar Energy Facts: 2014 Year in Review”.

http://www.seia.org/sites/default/files/Q4%202014%20SMI%20Fact%20Sheet.pdf

Declining Energy Intensity in Industrial Economies, 1991-2008

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Canada

United States

Germany

United Kingdom

France

Italy

Japan

Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2011.

Ene

rgy

Inte

nsi

ty-

Btu

pe

r Y

ear

20

05

U.S

. D

olla

rs (

19

91

bas

e y

ear

)

Year

Source: EIA 2013.Source: EIA 2012.

90 unitscarbon-based

100 units carbon-based

2015 2035

Renewables 10 units

Renewables 20 units

100 units total

120 units total~1% p.a. growth in energy demand

Copyright © 2015 Jonathan M. Harris

Business as Usual Scenario

90 unitscarbon-based 60 units

carbon-based

2015 2035

10 units

Renewables 20 units

100 units total

80 units total

~1% p.a. decline in energy demand

Copyright © 2015 Jonathan M. Harris

Based on modest investment in services, efficiency, renewables, with no loss in employment (probably a gain)

Services, Efficiency, & Renewables Scenario

Source: US Department of Energy, 2013

Accessed at: http://www.eia.doe.gov

Decline since 2007: 12%

US CO2 Emissions, 1990-2014

Source: US Department of Energy, 2016

Accessed at: http://www.eia.doe.gov

Reduction in population growth rates and in GDP growth rates could accentuate this

trend, and will be necessary to meet carbon targets, but there is a lot of scope for

energy and carbon intensity reduction.

Although 2012 was unusual, it shows the pattern of declining emissions: growth in

population and per capita output were outweighed by decreases in energy intensity (energy

use per dollar of GDP) and carbon intensity (carbon emissions per unit of energy use).

CARBON

INTENSITY

PERCENT CHANGES IN EMISSIONS DRIVERS, 2012

ENERGY

INTENSITY

PER CAPITA

OUTPUT

POPULATION

percent change

A good trend, but needs

continuing….

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2009 - 2013

ARRA2009 denotes the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.

Public Energy R&D Investment

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Mill

ion

s o

f 2

01

4 D

olla

rs

France

Germany

Japan

United Kingdom

United States

Source: International Energy Agency, 2014.

Policies for the Renewable Energy

Transition

• Subsidy reform: eliminate fossil fuel subsidies

• Pigovian tax on externalities including carbon

• Energy research and development

• Feed-in tariffs

• Subsidies, including favorable tax provisions and loan

terms

• Renewable energy targets

• Efficiency standards and labelling

• Financing mechanisms with zero up-front costs

http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/climate/ClimatePolicyBrief3.pdf

Carbon in Soils, Grasslands, Forests,

and Wetlands

• Carbon release from soil degradation and deforestation

is major atmospheric carbon source.

• Preventing releases from agricultural soils, wetlands,

and grasslands would lessen human-re;eased carbon by

around 20%.

• Preventing further deforestation would reduce emissions

by another 10%.

• Enhancing uptake by forests, grasslands, and soils

would be equivalent to reducing net emissions by an

additional 30% or more.

The composition of the planet’s water

The Hydrologic Cycle

0 1000 1700 2500 6000 15000 70000

Data not available

Cubic meters per person per year

Water scarce Water stressed

Global Freshwater Availability

Region Average water availability

(cubic meters/person)

Middle East and North Africa 500

Sub-Saharan Africa 1,000

Caribbean 2,466

Asia/Pacific 2,970

Europe 4,741

Latin America 7,200

North America (including

Mexico)

13,401

Water Availability per region (2012)

Agriculture share of water consumed – selected

countries

Countries % of water consumed that is used for

irrigation

Vietnam 95%

India 90%

Egypt 86%

Mexico 77%

China 65%

Brazil 60%

United States 40%

France 12%

Sweden 4%

Germany 0.3%

Calculating water footprint:

Step 1: decomposing water in 3 types

Calculating water footprint:

Step 2: adding all the water (green, blue, grey)

necessary throughout the process of production

of all goods and servicesProduct Virtual-water

content (liters)

1 sheet of paper (80 g/m2) 10

1 tomato (70 g) 13

1 slice of bread (30 g) 40

1 orange (100 g) 50

1 apple (100 g) 70

1 glass of beer (250 ml) 75

1 glass of wine (125 ml) 120

1 egg (40 g) 135

1 glass of orange juice (200 ml) 170

1 bag of potato crisps (200 g) 185

1 glass of milk (200 ml) 200

1 hamburger (150 g) 2,400

1 cotton T-shirt 2,700

1 pair of shoes (bovine leather) 8,000

Type of fuel

Amount of water needed in the

extraction/production of 2 Million

BTUs of energy

Natural Gas (conventional) 5 gallons

Unconventional natural gas (shale) 33 gallons

Oil (conventional) 32 gallons

Oil tar sands (mining) 616 gallons

Biofuel type 1 (irrigated corn) 35,616 gallons

Biofuel type 2 (irrigated soy) 100,591 gallons

Virtual water used in six types of fuels, for a

round trip New York City- Washington D.C.

Calculate your own water footprint:

http://www.gracelinks.org/1408/water-

footprint-calculator

The average person living in the US consumes about 2220 gallons of water

a day - That’s 8,500 liters or 25 bathtubs each day

Diet makes a huge difference:

Meat eater = 30 bathtubs Vegetarian = 15 bathtubs Vegan = 12 bathtubs

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Agricultural goods

Industrial goods

Domestic water consumption

National Water Footprint for selected countries,

in cubic meters per person per year

Transfers of virtual water through trade

Virtual-water balance per country

(billion cubic meters)

Trade of virtual water : cotton

Demand

Supply (MC)

Marginal Social Cost (MSC)

Price

Quantity of WaterQSQEQ*

PE

PS

P* A B C

Regulation by the market:

internalizing negative externalities

Subsidies to irrigation lead to a consumption of Quantity Qs of water

Qe would be the market equilibrium without subsidies

Q* would be the ecologically optimal quantity withdrawn

Price

pe

r U

nit

Quantity of Water Used

Uniform Rate Structure

Price

pe

r U

nit

Quantity of Water Used

Increasing Block Rate Structure

Price

pe

r U

nit

Quantity of Water Used

Decreasing Block Rate Structure

Pricing Structures

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250

Atlanta

San Francisco

San Diego

Charlotte, N.C.

Austin, Tex.

Santa Fe, N.M.

City

Average monthly water bill

Cities with the greatest differences in water rates

50 gallons per person per day 100 150

A few American Cities applying the

increasing bloc rate structure

The acequias of

New Mexico are

communal irrigation

canals, a way to

share water for

agriculture in a dry

land.

Tiwa Indians

irrigated farmland in

the area as long as

1.300 years ago.

“Communities have relied on institutions resembling neither the state nor the

market to govern some resource systems with reasonable degrees of success

over long periods of time ” Elinor Ostrom, in “Governing the Commons” (1990)

Re-creating collective systems of

management of the commons?