“Successful Entrepreneurship in a Changing Fabless … · “Successful Entrepreneurship in a Changing ... – Invent new process technology ... Successful Entrepreneurship in a
Post on 30-Apr-2018
214 Views
Preview:
Transcript
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
“Successful Entrepreneurship in a Changing Fabless Landscape”
Rakesh Kumar, Ph.D., Fellow IEEEOctober 7, 2010 Denver, CO.
rakesh@tcxinc.com+1 858.945.3758
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
Market demand continues to drive:Chip Complexity , Performance , Cost and Power
Design
Process
Package
BoardProduct
Semiconductors drive the Electronics food chain
It was that “Real men must have fabs”- but now…
…over 1300 Fabless companies…contribute over 20% of WW Semiconductor Revenue
…strong Eco-system available
…but the industry is at a cross-road atomistic levels business considerations dominate
Macro Trends:
ConnectivitySocial MediaTeenagers
…
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
IDM: 6Fab-Lite: 8Fabless: 3
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
What you will learn today– Semiconductor industry trends and fabless entrepreneurial perspectives
What we will NOT do today– Design new circuits– Invent new process technology
My background– Over 36 years in semiconductor industry –
Motorola, Unisys, Cadence, TCX– Over half in fabless companies– Outsourced technology and products for ~30 years– Consulting services for ~20 emerging and established companies over ~10 years
– VP, and President-elect of IEEE Solid-State Circuits Society– JSSC continues to be the #1 in downloads– SSCS sponsors/manages 4 major conferences, and technically co-sponsors many
others
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
Successful Entrepreneurship in a changing Fabless Landscape
Semiconductor Landscape changes– Macro Trends– Product and Business drivers
Entrepreneurship success elements– Lifecycle and development schedule– Product positioning– Technology selection– Cost management– Supply chain management
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
Expanding Applications Driving Semiconductor Landscape …Higher volume projections for widespread connectivity, communications,…
Memory, μPDrivers:
Computers
PC’s, Internet
Mobile Computing
Unit Volume: 1x
Mobile ProcessorsIntegrated SoC/SiP, Analog, RF, PM, …
Mobile Wireless
Voice, Data, MultimediaSocial Media,..
Computers Communications
Consumer
10x
Remote ProcessorsIntegrated Modules,
Sensors, Energy Scavenging
>100x
Mobile Life“The Internet of Everything”
…Prof. Tom Lee
Connecting People, Places, ThingsMobile Health
Appliance Configuration/ControlInteract
Digital Home, …
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
Ericsson’s view of industry trends / inflection points
Ref: Joshipura, GSA Expo, September 26, 2010
~100 years ~10 y ~5 y
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year Source: IC Knowledge, ISSCC, TCX
Tran
sist
ors
per C
hip,
MM
inim
um F
eatu
re S
ize,
um
More Moore…Transistor complexities have doubled every 2 years
System Co.’s – IBM, Hitachi, Sony, Philips, Unisys,…Semiconductor Co’s – Fairchild, T.I., Motorola, National, Intel, Toshiba, …
Fabless Co.’s
MF µP PC iNet Cellular
+43% / year
Moore’s Law 2x / 12mos…1965-70
2x / 18mos,,,1970-90’s2x / 24mos…now
-13% / year
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
Technology and Business Challenges
Process Technology Challenges– Lithography– New Materials and Processes
– Strained Si, Lo K, Hi-K MG,..– New Device Structures
– FinFETs,..– …
Design and Co-design Challenges– Managing leakage and Power dissipation– DFM– …
Business Challenges– Large investment – capital, process cost, design cost…– Few players – users, fabs,…
Continued Scaling will be dominated by solutions to Business challenges…expect Technical solutions to be available when needed!
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
Continued Moore Scaling is threatened ……cost effectiveness
is an issue
Rel
ativ
e C
ost P
er G
ate
(log
scal
e) -29%/year
Cost Reduction has driven the Technology Roadmap
.01
1
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Year Production
Source: ITRS
65 nm
45 nm
32/28 nm
22/20 nm
Litho, Optimized Process solutions & DD reduction are a must for continued scaling economics
Litho, Optimized Process solutions & DD reduction Litho, Optimized Process solutions & DD reduction are a must for continued scaling economicsare a must for continued scaling economics
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
Source: ITRS
“More than Moore”
activities….positioned for continued industry growth Innovation &
entrepreneurial opportunities
Innovation & entrepreneurial opportunities
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
PNP
PMIC
Spacer
Die #1 Die #2
Stacked Packages
Side-by-Side
Stacked Chips
Source: IMEC
3D Stacked IC’s
“More than Moore”
examples -
Innovative Packaging
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
SYSTEM DESIGN
CHIP DESIGN
CHIPIMPLEMENTATION
CHIP LEVELSYSTEM DESIGN
TECHNOLOGYDEVELOPMENT
HARDWARESOFTWARE
VERIFICATION
LOGIC DESIGNCIRCUIT DESIGN
IP [Intellectual Property]Design Tools
PHYSICAL DESIGNTAPEOUT
MASKSFAB
PACKAGE DEV ASSEMBLY
TEST
ARCHITECTURESPECIFICATIONVERIFICATION
PROCESSPACKAGINGASSEMBLY
PROD. SUPPORT
IDM approach now practiced at fewer companies….has given way to increased outsourcing, and a fabless supply chain
Outsourced activities
IDM
(Asset Intensive)
Fabless
(Traditional)
Fab-Lite
(Asset-Lite)
IFM
(Integrated Fabless
Manufacturing)
TimelineC
apita
l Inv
estm
ent
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
Fabless model generates results…CAGR consistently better than semiconductor
Fabless Industry
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,0001987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009 F
($M
)
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
($M
)
Semi Industry Fabless Industry
Source: GSA
Semi Industry
Over the last 20 years, Fabless CAGR = 28% while Semiconductor CAGR = 8%
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
QCT Revenue Leads the Fabless Industry …use of an Integrated Fabless Model (“IFM”) has been key
Source: IC Insights, 20100119
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
2009 Top 20 Semiconductor Sales Leaders ($M)…forecast
Source: iSuppli
Nov. 2009
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
Number of Fabless Companies Worldwide by Year
70207
340409
485568
650750
850950
11001250 1300 1300 1300 13001350
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Bef
ore
1980
1981
-199
0
1991
-199
5
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
North America (600)
Asia (500)
Europe (150)
Israel (50)
Source: Global Semiconductor Alliance (formerly FSA)
Fabless Industry pioneered by innovators with ideas, but without wafer fabs
Worldwide Growth of Fabless Companies
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
The I.C. entrepreneurship creation
Electronics
Idea
End-product
~1400 fabless IC companies worldwide
Software Implementation
License IP
Fabless I.C. company
Internal Development
at an IDM
Existing NewStandard,
Technology Market
Customer Base
..but, only a very small fraction of fabless start-
ups are successful!!
..but, only a very small fraction of fabless start-
ups are successful!!
Assemble the right team!
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
Create your product as a “must-have” for the customer
Product PositioningDifferentiation
Create your product as a “must-have” for the customer
Product PositioningDifferentiation
Top reasons for failure of fabless start-ups
No customer engagement until it’s too lateNot understanding and meeting customer expectationsOverly aggressive product specificationsThe “kitchen-sink syndrome”Poor management of the Supply Chain
A systematic approach to planning and execution
A systematic approach to planning and execution
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
Success elements –
product positioning
EXISTINGStandard, market, customer base
NEWStandard, market, customer base
Super-Integration Problem solutionsEvolutionary enhancements
– e.g. Cost reduction
Emerging standardNew features/capabilitiesNew interfaces“Revolutionary” enhancements
Will Impact Schedule, Technology Selection, Design Methodology,….
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
IC DesignGlobal Planning
IC Production
Lifecycle of a fabless IC company –
activity highlites
“System” Architecture / Design / Simulation / Verification
ReferenceBoards
Customer Evaluation“Proof of Concept”
CustomerSamples
ReferenceDesign
FPGAImplementation
Customer EvaluationDesign Acceptance
ICPrototyping
High Level Design
Floor Planning
Chip Design
RTL NL
Physical Des
NL GDSII F A TProd. Ramp
IC Qualification
Hi volumeDebug
Analog IP Design
Series ASeries B
30 – 50% of TT$
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
Typical ASIC Development Cycle
ASIC DESIGN Proto Prod Ramp Hi Volume
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2
Software α
Software β
Software Prod.
Initial Silicon
Initial Silicon Ramp
Initial Product Ramp
Volume Production
Start Design Tapeout ESProd HW/SW LaunchQS
FPGARef Board
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
a. At the System company:
Concept HW/SW Dev Demo Qual Trial Mkt Build Hi Volume
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2
b. At the Fabless IC company:
ASIC DESIGN Proto Prod Ramp Hi Volume
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2
LaunchStart Product
Design
Volume Orders
Start Design Tapeout ESProd HW/SW LaunchQS
FPGARef Board
System vs. IC Development Cycle
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
Success elements –
product definition
Judicious selection of features and specificationsWhat are your product’s differentiating features?
– If process technology only…..go back to the ‘drawing board’!!Overly aggressive specifications (timing, gate density,….)Show a Product Roadmap
– Establish credibility
by delivering the first samples– on schedule– may not have all the ‘bells and whistles’
3210Introduction
Years
Initial Product
Follow On Product
Follow On Product
Follow On Product
Follow On Product
Features, Performance
Cost Reduction
3210Introduction
Years
Initial Product
Follow On Product
Follow On Product
Follow On Product
Follow On Product
Features, Performance
Features, Performance
Cost ReductionCost Reduction
Avoid the “kitchen sink syndrome”
Avoid the “kitchen sink syndrome”
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
Success elements –
technology selection
Avoid using the newest technology (process, design, packaging, …)– If that is the only way you can meet the specifications…..
Use the newest technology you can afford, and the oldest technology that lets you meet the specifications
ComplexityPerformance
Development CostRisk
Leading EdgeMainstreamMature
% D
esig
ns
Process Node MaturityMature Mainstream Leading Edge
500 350 250 180 130 90 65 45 nm
ComplexityPerformance
Development CostRisk
ComplexityPerformance
Development CostRisk
Leading EdgeMainstreamMature
% D
esig
ns
Leading EdgeMainstreamMature
% D
esig
ns
Process Node MaturityMature Mainstream Leading Edge
500 350 250 180 130 90 65 45 nm
Process Node MaturityMature Mainstream Leading Edge
500 350 250 180 130 90 65 45 nm
ComplexityPerformance
Development CostRisk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
<= 90 130 180/150 250 350 >= 500Process Node, nm Source: FSA
% Revenue
200420052006
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
Success elements –
supply chain selection
Technical due diligenceBusiness due diligence
– Will they accept your business?– Confidentiality documents– Quotes– Firm up the commitments
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
Success elements –
cost management
Unit cost optimization
Development cost optimization
0.01
0.1
1
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000
M Gates/Chip
cent
s / K
Gat
es
180 nm130 nm90 nm65 nm45 nm
05
101520253035404550
180 nm 130 nm 90 nm 65 nm 45 nm
NR
E, $
M
TSMC Info nV/Alt/SIA/IBSDes/VerSWTPEMasks Si
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
Success elements –
other considerations
Sourcing methodology – FPGA, ASIC, COT,..Operations best practices – legal, financial, production control, customer support,…Quality and reliability – Quality Manual, build in quality from the start,…Schedule development and managementProgram management
– Internal development– Management of the distributed supply chain
TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.
©2010 TCX Inc
Summary and key take-aways
Semiconductor industry continues to be the hub of the electronics revolution– As long as there are innovators, and…– Teenagers and other users…– This will continue to be an exciting and challenging industry
Successful new product implementation can be a very rewarding experience– It’s not for the faint hearted!
For entrepreneurs…Best Technical idea ≠
Success
PLANNINGEXECUTION EXECUTION
EXECUTION
Create customer “must-have”
through Product Differentiation
Complex, but can be done!
top related