Steps to increase resilience of agriculture sector to current and future climate variability in Indonesia Rizaldi Boer Bogor Agricultural University Indonesia.
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Steps to increase resilience of agriculture sector to current and future climate variability in Indonesia
Rizaldi BoerBogor Agricultural UniversityIndonesiaE-mail: rboer@fmipa.ipb.ac.idr or rizaldiboer@yahoo.com
• Indonesia is vulnerable country to climate change. At present the occurrence of extreme climate events have caused serious impact in many sectors
Kehutanan73%
Pertanian24%
Perhubungan 3%
Total loss 97/98375 Million US$
TransportationAgriculture
Forestry
012345678
Keru
gian
Akib
at
El-N
ino
82/8
3(M
ilyar
US$
)
Global Indonesia
Econ
omic
Loss
El
-Nin
o 82
/83
(Billi
on U
SD)
• As an agrarian country where this sector as one of the most vulnerable sector to the ECE, Indonesian government has paid serious attention to this sector, how this sector could adapt or cope with to such events
• Many program has been implemented, however, most of the programs are more curative than preventive actions. New programs and large amount of funding was normally released after the devastating impact happened. Good adaptive capacity has not been developed yet as the magnitude of loss due to such events tended to increase
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1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Imp
or
(juta
ton
)
25.0
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33.0
34.0P
rod
uksi b
eras (juta to
n)Banned of
57 pesticide
price of rice increase, new var. release, IPM
Subsidy for pesticide stop
El-Nino
New var. release, extensification on plantation land, IPT and agric. mechanization
El-Nino
El-Nino
Introduction of direct seeded, 1 million peat land, new regulation
WS delayed, no subsidy (pressure from IMF, economic crisis)
Crash irrigation program, prilled urea, price of rice increased 11%, extensification of upland rice
Impo
rt (
Mill
ion
Ton
)R
ice Production (M
illion Ton)
Policy response to Drought in Indonesia
Increasing loss
NOTE:Historical policy responses to drought in India. Note: each represents
death of one million people, each represents 50 million people affected. If water management response were introduced right after the 1979 drought, the impact of 1987 drought may not as severe as
what really happened. Adopted from Subbiah (2005)
Drought events 1877 1865 1972 1979 1987 2002 Major policy interventions
Famine code
Green revolution
Employment generation program
Contingency crop plan
Watershed protection & improvement
Type of policy responses
Food scarcity relief
Drought relief
Drought management
Water management
Increasing loss
Policy response FAILED to anticipate the future climate risks
• “Planned adaptation to future climate will be based on current individual, community and institutional behaviour that, in part, have been developed as a response to current climate” (Jones et al. 2004)
• We need to develop planning horizon– How far into the future a risk assessment
should be projected?– For how long lifetime of decision-making
associated with a particular activity last?– When new policy should be introduced to
mitigate the possible impact of coming ECE or climate change?
Communicating climate knowledge & climate information applications to increase adaptive capacity and community participations in current and future climate
variability
Research Agencies,Universities
National and local Governments
Farmers and other end users
Transfer of knowledge & technology information through
science and policy forum
Inputs and Feed back
Programs, policies, & regulations
Inputs and Feed backIn
puts
and
Fee
d ba
ck
Tran
sfer
of t
echn
olog
ies
thro
ugh
varie
ty o
f mea
ns
Sustainable system and prosperous
communities
Mitigation actions
Adaptation actions NGOs
Good incentive system
Good climate forecasting
system
APPROACH: Engagement of Stakeholders
How we do it?
A SMALL STEP: INCREASING ADAPTIVE CAPACITY OF
FARMERS TO EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS THROUGH FIELD SCHOOL
PROGRAM: Indramayu Case
Subsistence farmers are the most severely affected by ECE
Number of Household based on Welfare Status
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
Nu
mb
er o
f H
ou
seh
old
Pra KS KS I KS II KS III KS IV-up
Income Status
2001
2003
2001
Pra KS34%
KS I21%
KS II25%
KS III15%
KS IV-up5%
2003
Pra KS37%
KS I32%
KS II18%
KS III10%
KS IV-up3%
The increase in The increase in number ofnumber of
Pra-KS (Pra-KS (below below poverty linepoverty line) in 2003 ) in 2003 was primarily due to was primarily due to devastating impact of devastating impact of
drought (long dry drought (long dry season) occurred in season) occurred in
2002-20032002-2003
The increase in The increase in number ofnumber of
Pra-KS (Pra-KS (below below poverty linepoverty line) in 2003 ) in 2003 was primarily due to was primarily due to devastating impact of devastating impact of
drought (long dry drought (long dry season) occurred in season) occurred in
2002-20032002-2003
CFS Development Process and ImplementationCFS Development Process and Implementation
Field Facilitator I (PL I) at District/Sub-district Level
Research Communities and local governments
Function: To translate scientific language to field language To train PL2 in technology and method (see and listen) Provide inputs to PL2 in designing detail program for project operational
Field Facilitator II (PL II) at Sub-district or village level
or farmer group level
Function: To translate field language into farmers language To disseminate information and technology to farmers To train farmers based on learning by doing approach To facilitate and motivate farmers to adopt the technologies
Farmer group and farmers’ family
Training
Training
CFS
Engaging policy makers
Engaging intermediaries
Engaging communities
Fee
dbac
k
Use of Climate InformationFarm
management system
Agriculture Institutional
system
Partnership system
Climate Information is needed for:Developing agriculture ZoningSetting up crop management strategy (determining planting time, selection of cropping system following climate forecast) and other mitigation programsAssessing market conditions, etc.
Climate Information is needed for:Setting up market strategies and land allocation under a given forecastIncreasing awareness of farmers to the needs for collaboration among farmers and with other stakeholders in managing climate variabilityDesigning better strategy and coordination between govern-ment agencies in responding to climate forecast etc.
Climate Information can be used for:Convincing farmers’ partners for collaboration by minimizing climate riskAssisting government in setting up local regulations for addressing climate variability (e.g. rice stock management under a given climate forecast, loan arrangement for farmer, etc.) Assisting government to set up budget policy to address climate related problems, etc.
Increasing knowledge of end users small groups-community-institutions
Need for government regulations increasing
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