State of the Workforce 2008 Rising Expectations - Declining Outcomes.

State of the Workforce2008

Rising Expectations - Declining Outcomes

State of the Workforce Reports

• Labor Force Decline in Greater New Haven -’02

• 16-24 Year Olds - Future Workforce in Peril - ’03

• Workforce Dilemma - ’05

• Connecticut’s Competitive Challenge - ’06

• The Haves, Have-Nots, and Used-to-Haves - ‘07

Population

State of the Workforce 2007

Gainers and Losers in State PopulationJuly 2006 – July 2007

Source : USA Today & Census Bureau

Lost PopulationGained 0.5% or lessGained 0.6% - 1.2%Gained 1.3% or more

Population Change in South Central CT 2000-2006

0% - 3%

Source: CT Department of Labor

3% - 6%

6% - 10%

Over 10%

Bethany

Durham

EastHampton

East HaddamHaddam

Killing-worth

Wallingford

Meriden MiddletownMiddle-

field

CromwellPortland

Chester

Deep RiverEssex

OldSaybrook

West-brookClinton

Guilford

MadisonBranford

NorthBranford

EastHaven

NewHaven

WestHaven

Orange

Milford

Wood-bridge Hamden

NorthHaven

50% of Region’s Population

CT Population Changes

• CT’s 18 to 64 year old working age population is expected to decline through 2030

• CT’s elderly population, 65 +, will increase by 70% during the same time period

• As a result, the number of workers per elderly resident will decline by 40%

• CT’s loss of 20 to 34 year olds continued to be greatest in nation between 1990 and 2006

• 2.6% of CT residents moved in from another state in 2006 - US rank 39th

Source: New England Economic Partnership

State of the Workforce 2007

Employment

South Central ConnecticutEmployment Concentration by Industry Clusters

Employment Concentration

Source: CT Department of Labor

South Central CT WorksitesBy Size 2004 – 2006

Number of

Employees2004 #

Worksites2004 Total

Employment2005 #

Worksites2005 Total

Employment2006 #

Worksites2006 Total

Employment

0 - 4 10,799 18,643 10,878 19,041 11,148 19,294

5 – 9 3,595 23,814 3,637 24,060 3,602 23,877

10 – 19 2,418 32,416 2,399 32,364 2,390 32,308

20 – 49 1,683 50,534 1,668 50,185 1,717 52,525

50 – 99 579 40,404 585 40,225 595 40,436

100 – 249 342 52,873 358 55,145 377 57,787

250 - 499 48 15,972 47 15,553 44 14,134

500 – 999 23 14,212 21 13,652 21 13,531

1000 + 16 43,718 13 40,100 13 41,232

Total 19,483 292,586 19,606 290,325 19,907 295,134

Source: CT Department of Labor

Job Growth 1989-2007

Source: DataCore Partners LLC

CT JOB GROWTH VS.COMPENSATION PER JOB - 2001 TO 2006

NAICS Sectors

2001 – 2006

Job Change

Growth

Rank NAICS Sectors

2006 Total

Compensation

Comp

Rank

Health 18,800 1 Financial Services $142,402 1

Leisure & Hospitality 12,800 2 Federal Gov’t w/Military $135,239 2

Education 8,200 3 Wholesale Trade $92,398 3

State and Local Gov’t 3,000 4 Manufacturing $88,165 4

Transportation & Utilities 2,000 5 Bus & Prof Services $86,513 5

Construction 1,600 6 Information $81,041 6

Financial Services 1,400 7 Other $69,391 7

Other 1,400 8 All Government $67,252 8

All Government 1,100 9 Construction $66,279 9

Wholesale Trade 200 10 State and Local Government $61,320 10

Federal Gov’t w/Military -1,900 11 Health $51,986 11

Retail Trade -3,600 12 Education $50,586 12

Bus & Prof Services -5,500 13 Transportation & Utilities $44,665 13

Information -7,000 14 Retail Trade $35,880 14

Manufacturing -32,000 15 Leisure & Hospitality $19,874 15

Source: DataCore Partners LLC

Replacement Earnings of U.S. Displaced WorkersRe-employed in 2006 by Education Level

EducationalAttainment

Weekly EarningsDisplaced Job*

WeeklyEarnings

Current JobAbsolute

DifferenceRelative

Difference

Less than High School $494 $434 -$60 -12.2%

High School Graduate $581 $529 -$52 -8.9%

Some College orAssociate’s Degree $698 $611 -$87 -12.4%

College Graduate $1,222 $1,087 -$136 -11.1%

Source: Center for Labor Market Studies

Gainers and Losers in State PopulationJuly 2006 – July 2007

Source : USA Today & Census Bureau

Lost PopulationGained 0.5% or lessGained 0.6% - 1.2%Gained 1.3% or more

Per Capita Spending on Incumbent Worker Training

CT$0.16

MEPA

VTMA

NJ$7.04

$6.54

$5.27$4.10

RI - $16.93

$5.94

How To Improve Connecticut’sEconomic Competitiveness:Invest in Workforce Training

It is time to secure the state’s economic futureand keep Connecticut competitive. Here is whatthe competition is investing:

Older Workers

• 2007 Business Week Survey showed 1 in 4 workers 55 and older say they never expect to retire - 1 in 10 under age 30 says the same

• 30% of people 65 to 69 were either working or actively looking for jobs - up from 25% in 2006

• AARP Survey of workers 50 and over shows 48% expect to retire between 65 and 72 years of age - 10 % expect to retire after 73 and 8% say they will never retire

• Workforce participation rates were relatively flat for 25 to 54 year olds and fell more than 3 percentage points for those 16 to 24

Source: Business Week & AARP

Employment/Population Ratios16-19 Year Olds

Selected Years 1989 to 200747.5%

45.2%

39.6%36.4% 36.9% 34.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1989 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007

Source: Center for Labor Market Studies

Future Workforce

• 35% of American Households have Children

• But 60% have pets

Income Disparity

State of the Workforce 2007

Median Income MasksGrowing Income Inequality in Region*

5.4%

-2.4%

6.7%

-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%

HouseholdsEarning <$50,000

HouseholdsEarning $50,000

to $200,000

HouseholdsEarning >$200,000

Source: N Y Times

*Tri-State 22 county region including Fairfield, New Haven & Middlesex Counties (Excluding New York City)

1999 - 2005

+90,000-60,000

+26,000

Income Distribution of Individuals Born to a Poor FamilyWith and Without a College Degree

19%

5%

22%

9%

21%

18%

22% 23%

16%

45%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Top Top Middle Middle Bottom Middle Bottom

DegreeNo Degree

Source: New York Times and Brookings Institution

68%62%

Income Groups by QuintileIncome Groups by Quintile

Impact on Wages in 2004 due to Unequal Growth 1979-2004

-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

BottomFifth

Lower-Middle

Fifth

MiddleFifth

Upper-Middle

Fifth

Next 15% Next 4% Top 1%

Source: Economic Policy Institute

Education

State of the Workforce 2007

Educational Outcomes and Socioeconomic Status

Source: Economic Policy Institute & National Center for Education Statistics

College Completion %

Performance in 8th Grade Math

Number of Associate’s Degrees ConferredU.S., New England & So. Central CT 1996 & 2006

1996 2006AbsoluteChange

RelativeChange

United States 557,858 730,643 172,785 31%

New England 28,440 27,023 -1,417 -5%

South Central CT 802 838 36 4%

So Ctrl CT Public 647 650 3 0%

So Ctrl CT Private 155 188 33 21%

Source: Center for Labor Market Studies

Number of Non-Degree Awards GrantedU.S., New England & So. Central CT 1996 & 2006

1996 2006AbsoluteChange

RelativeChange

United States 620,669 719,970 99,301 16%

New England 21,904 23,003 1,099 5%

South Central CT 851 1,137 286 34%

So Ctrl CT Public 144 141 -3 -2%

So Ctrl CT Private 707 996 289 41%

Source: Center for Labor Market Studies

Distribution of Associate’s Degrees ConferredBy Field of Study - South Central CT 2006

Field of Study PercentArts & Humanities 32%

Business 29%

Criminal Justice 1%

Education 1%

Engineering & Computer Science 8%

Heath Sciences 20%

Law 0%

Personal Services 7%

Sciences 1%

Total 100%

Source: Center for Labor Market Studies

Remedial Tales• Of 1,161 new students entering Gateway Community

College in the 2006 fall semester:• 38% needed developmental writing• 54% needed developmental English• 84% needed developmental math

• Of those who enrolling in developmental math only 48% pass - for developmental English the success rate is 35%

• The National Center for Educational Statistics indicates that students who enroll in a remedial reading course are 41% more likely to drop out of college

Source: NCES & Gateway Community College

South Central CTWorks Customers 2006-2007Placement Wages vs. Academic Assessment

Funding Source Wage % Below Basic*

Dislocated Worker Programs $15.00 63.7%

Adult Programs $12.64 71.9%

Youth Programs $10.21 78.4%

Jobs First Employment Services $9.67 89.1%

* % Below Basic = those customers testing below basic proficiency levels in math and/or reading

Sample Size 4,382

Workforce Housing

State of the Workforce 2007

American Housing Snapshot

• 1977 average family size was 3.1 people• 2007 average family size was 2.6 people

• 1977 average house built was 1,700 sq ft• 2007 average house built was 2,469 sq ft

• 1977 - 12% of homes > 2,400 sq ft• 2007 - 44% of homes > 2,400 sq ft

Source: USA Today & US Census Bureau

Connecticut Housing

• CT housing prices defied the national trend and rose 1.45% in 2007

• First Quarter 2008– Sales were off 27.3%– Prices were off 5.8%

• Combination of limited supply (CT 49th in homes built per capita in 2007) and consistent demand have mitigated declines

Source: Partnership for Strong Communities

Ex-Offenders

State of the Workforce 2008

Adult Probationers in South Central CT - 2007

50 & Under

Source: CT Department of Labor

101 - 250

251 - 500

Over 500

Bethany

Durham

EastHampton

East HaddamHaddam

Killing-worth

Wallingford

Meriden MiddletownMiddle-

field

CromwellPortland

Chester

Deep RiverEssex

OldSaybrook

West-brookClinton

Guilford

MadisonBranford

NorthBranford

EastHaven

NewHaven

WestHaven

Orange

Milford

Wood-bridge Hamden

NorthHaven

51 - 100

Growth in State Spending on Corrections and Higher Education 1987 to 2007

4%

70%

16%

34%

21%

127%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%

Higher Ed

Corrections

Total 1987 - 2007

1997 - 2007

1987 - 1997

Source: Inside Higher Ed

Recommendations

1. Reduce dropout rates - enforce thelegal age of 18 for leaving school

2. Improve access to Higher Ed

3. Increase the availability of affordable workforce housing

4. Fund Incumbent Worker Training

5. Require literacy training for prison inmates

Reduce Dropout Rates - Enforce theLegal Age of 18 for Leaving School

• Close the loophole that allows children 16 to drop-out with parental consent

• CT high income residents are basically 100% assured of high school graduation

• However just over 75% of low income residents graduate

• Functional illiteracy within the penal system is 70%

• Less than 20% of inmates take part in any education or training

• Lack of literacy skills is an overwhelming barrier to success in the job market

Require Literacy Training forPrison Inmates

• Raise the expectations of low income youth • Provide full tuition scholarships to public

colleges for Connecticut high school graduates who have: – achieved basic proficiency in their 10th grade

CAPT– maintained a “C” average in high school – family income of $45,000 or less

Improve Access to Higher Ed

• Increase public funding available for new housing production or preservation

• Stimulate private investment by providing financial incentives to developers

• Reward local governments for developing more affordable housing and removing zoning barriers.

Increase the Availability of Affordable Workforce Housing

• Increase public investment in incumbent worker education and training

• Expand worker access to education and training

• Measure policies by their success in developing self-sufficient workers

• In 2006, MA Invested $21million in incumbent worker training; NY $25 million; RI, $8million; CT invested $500,000

Fund Incumbent Worker Training