State of the Market - rebuyers.orgrebuyers.org/.../2017/09/REBA-2017-State-of-the-Market-address.pdf · State of the Market Lily Donge, BRC/RMI Letha Tawney ... General Motors F 500

StateoftheMarketLilyDonge,BRC/RMILethaTawney,WRI18September,2017SantaClaraConventionCenter,SantaClara,CA

/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17

Agenda

State oftheMarket

MarketTrends

Regulated Markets

/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17

Transactionbarriers:allattendees

/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17

Transactionbarriers:buyers

/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17

Transactionbarriers:developers

/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17

NewDeals:corporatedemandinGW2017 has already surpassed 2016 total

/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17

47corporationshavesigneddealstodateBuyer Capacity (MW)Google F500 1861Amazon F500 1135Apple F500 764Microsoft F500 463Walmart F500 387Anheuser-BuschInBev F500 372Equinix 330Facebook F500 274IKEA 263OwensCorning F500 250Kimberly Clark F500 245Mars 200DowChemical F500 200Switch 179T-Mobile 160KaiserPermanente 153Procter&Gamble F500 138Volkswagen 1303M F500 120GeneralMotors F500 114HPE F500 112DeAcero 110GeneralMills F500 100Johnson &Johnson F500 100

Buyer Capacity (MW)Target F500 100DigitalRealty 88USDelphiAutomotive 80Cummins F500 75Solvay 71Philips F500 70GoldmanSachs F500 68Salesforce F500 64JPMorgan F500 55IronMountain 52Corning F500 50BectonDickinson F500 30LockheedMartin F500 30Steelcase 25Yahoo 23PartnersHealthCare 22AveryDennison 20Bloomberg 20Cisco F500 20PayPal F500 15Aerojet Rocketdyne 12SCJohnson 11AkamaiTechnologies 7

/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17

13of15newbuyersin2017

Firsttimetransactor

*Signedmultipledealsin2017

Buyer Capacity (MW)Apple* F500 400Anheuser-BuschInBev* F500 372Kimberly Clark* F 500 245T-Mobile 216DeAcero 110Target F500 100GeneralMills F500 100Cummins F500 75Solvay 71GoldmanSachs F500 68JPMorgan F500 55Facebook F500 30PartnersHealthCare 22Paypal F500 15AkamaiTechnologies 7

/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17

44developershaveparticipatedtodateDeveloper #ofDeals Capacity (MW)NextEra 9 759EDFRenewableEnergy 7 731Invenergy 5 695MidAmericanEnergy 2 548RESAmericas 4 458Iberdrola Renewables 2 428EnelGreenPower 4 426ApexCleanEnergy 5 356FirstSolar 3 309EDPRenewables 5 296Avangrid Renewables 2 256LincolnCleanEnergy 2 253ChermacEnergy 1 239SunEdison 2 217BNBRenewableEnergy 1 200BordasWindEnergy 1 200Tradewind Energy 1 200TechrenSolarLLC 1 200EverPower 1 189E.ON 2 188CommunityEnergy 2 180CapitalPower 1 178

Buyer #ofDeals Capacity (MW)SunPower 6 178DukeEnergy 3 172PatternEnergyGroup 1 150MexicoPowerGroup 1 130PioneerGreenEnergy 1 116Sempra 1 110InfinityRenewables 2 107Alterra Power 1 103VirginiaSolarLLC 1 80NRG 2 75Origis Energy 1 72Dominion 1 71CypressCreekRenewables 1 61Constellation 1 42Akuo Energy 1 40Enbridge 1 40AffordableSolar 1 30NewJerseyResources 1 27WaldenGreenEnergy 1 22APS 1 15SiliconRanchCorporation 1 12SpartanRenewableEnergy 1 11

/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17

10of19newdevelopersin2017Developer #ofDeals Capacity (MW)Enel GreenPower 2 312Avangrid Renewables 2 256Iberdrola Renewables 1 220Techren SolarLLC 1 200Invenergy 1 125EDFRenewableEnergy 1 120Sempra 1 110InfinityRenewables 2 107RESAmericas 1 100EDPRenewables 1 75Dominion 1 71.4NextEra 1 68NRG 1 55AffordableSolar 1 30WaldenGreenEnergy 1 21.6APS 1 15

Firsttimetransactor

/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17

Agenda

StateoftheMarket

MarketTrends

Regulated Markets

/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17

Pricesremainunpredictable

Source:SNL

$0$5$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50

3/1/2014 6/1/2014 9/1/2014 12/1/2014 3/1/2015 6/1/2015 9/1/2015 12/1/2015 3/1/2016 6/1/2016 9/1/2016 12/1/2016 3/1/2017

AverageSPPpriceshavefallen~50%since2014

SPPSouthSPPNorth

SPPDay-AheadPrices,2014-2017

($/M

Wh)

2015 2016 2017

?PTC/ITC

/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17

Smallerdealssupport25%ofthemarket

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2015 2016 2017

Transactionsunder40MW AverageannualMWcontribution

/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17

Solutionsforsmallerappetites

BenefitsforsellersBenefitsforbuyers

• Access to economies of scale, even if deal size is smaller

• Risk mitigation• More flexibility on tenor• Transaction simplification

• Access to more buyers• Investment-grade counterparty

Benefitsvarybyspecificaggregationsolution,butamongthemare:

/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17

Aggregateddealactivityinnext12months?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Minimal Moderate Extensive

Allocatio

nofvotes

Buyer Developer Serviceprovider Utility NGO/Other

/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17

Thetrendismovingupthesupplychain

Source: Walmart

• Goal<1Gigaton fromthesupplychainby2030

• Energy– keyareasupplierscanmakecommitments

• Supplierssettheirowngoalsandreportannually

ProjectGigaton - Walmart

/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17

WhathavebuyersdoneregardingScope3?1=nowork|5=executedtransactions

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1 2 3 4 5

Allocatio

nofvotes

Buyer Serviceprovider NGO/Other

/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17

WeAreStillIn

Sectors Total Metrics

States 9 TotalGDP:$6.2TrillionCitiesandCounties 238 Population:130millionHigherEducation 325 Enrollment FTE:4.2million

Endowment:$122BillionBusinessesandInvestors(35Fortune500entities)

1,728 TotalAnnualRevenue:$2.3TrillionTotalAssetsUnderManagement:$2.5TrillionTotalUSEmployees:4.8Million

TotalSignatories 2,300

/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17

Highprofile“RExits”

Microsoft:PugetSoundEnergyMGM:NevadaPower

1 https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/How-MGM-Prepared-Itself-to-Leave-Nevadas-Biggest-Utility

• May2016,Nevada

• Seekingenergyindependenceandmorerenewables1

• MGMgoalis46%renewables– Nevada’sRenewableEnergyStandardrequires23%

• $87millionRExit fee

• MGMworkingwithTenaskatoprocure171MWtooperate

• April2017,Washingtonstate

• Seekingrenewableenergytomeetsustainabilitygoals

• RExit ~80%WAheadquartersenergyuse

• $24millionRExit fee

• Contributedtothecreationofagreentariff,andalreadyattractedStarbucksandREI

/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17

Agenda

StateoftheMarket

MarketTrends

RegulatedMarkets

/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17

Moreutilitiesareengaging

/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17

Moredealsarehappening– fornewload

/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17Source:2016,USEnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),BureauofEconomicAnalysis,BloombergTerminal

Changefrom

1990

Economicgrowthnolongerdrivesenergydemand

USGDP&PrimaryEnergyConsumption(indexed)

Thereisnogrowthindemandoverall

/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17Source:EIAAnnualEnergyOutlook2017

GrowthingasandREoutstripsthefallincoal–exports?

EIAforecasts20%productionincrease

/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17Source:BNEFSustainableEnergyinAmericaFACTBOOK2017&https://www.bnef.com/core/insights/15860

So… lowprices!(andunderusedassets)