State of Recession in Rural NC

How We Commonly See Rural North Carolina

Billy Ray HallPresident of the North Carolina Rural Economic

Development Center

Prepared by R.V. Rikard, Senior Associate for Research

Frequency of Rural Urban Counties by Unemployment Rate Categories

(June 2009)

UR Categories Rural Urban

9.1% or Less 14 4

9.2% - 11.1% 23 3

11.2% - 13.1% 24 4

13.2% - 15.1% 16 3

15.2% or Greater 8 1

NC 11.0%

Workforce Composition Change

• Manufacturing

• Retail

• Wholesale

• Services

• Government• Agriculture

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and NC Employment Security Commission, Labor Market Information Division.Note: Data suppression underestimates percentage change across years.

Manufacturing

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and NC Employment Security Commission, Labor Market Information Division.Note: Data suppression underestimates percentage change across years.

Retail

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and NC Employment Security Commission, Labor Market Information Division.Note: Data suppression underestimates percentage change across years.

Wholesale

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and NC Employment Security Commission, Labor Market Information Division.Note: Data suppression underestimates percentage change across years.

Services

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and NC Employment Security Commission, Labor Market Information Division.Note: Data suppression underestimates percentage change across years.

Government

Agriculture

Educational Benchmarks

Unemployment Rate Categories

Percent Graduating

9.1% or Less 74.9%

9.2% - 11.1% 71.2%

11.2% - 13.1% 69.7%

13.2% - 15.1% 67.5%

15.2% or Greater 70.1%

Change in Unemployment Over Time

Rural Foreclosures

Exhausting Unemployment Insurance

Rural North Carolina and the Road to Recovery

• How do we recover?

• What is pointing the way?

• How do we recover better than we were before?

N.C. Economic Development: Regional Snapshots

Advantage West Unemployment Rate:December 2007: 4.7June 2009: 11.2Percent Change: 6.5

Eastern Partnership Unemployment Rate:December 2007: 5.1June 2009: 10.9Percent Change: 5.8

Northeastern Partnership Unemployment Rate:December 2007: 6.0 June 2009: 10.3Percent Change: 4.2

Piedmont Partnership Unemployment Rate:December 2007: 4.9June 2009: 11.8Percent Change: 6.8

Research Triangle Partnership Unemployment Rate:December 2007: 4.0June 2009: 9.4Percent Change: 5.4

Southeastern Partnership Unemployment Rate:December 2007: 5.4June 2009: 10.7Percent Change: 5.3

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Allocations

• A projected $8.6 billion in ARRA funding is projected to come to the state over a 2 year period.

• $3 billion has arrived as of late June, 2009

• A brief summary

Rural/Urban Per-Capita American Recovery and Reinvestment Act

Allocation

Rural Urban

Average Per Capita $352.35 $303.93

ARRA funding patterns more complex than simple Rural/Urban comparison

• Per Capita by Unemployment Rates:

• 9.1% or Below $350.71

• 9.2% – 11.1% $400.86

• 11.2% - 13.1% $391.91

• 13.2% - 15.1% $292.33

• 15.2 % or Greater $262.88

The 2010 Census: Implications for Rural North Carolina

• Why it is important:

– Legislative redistricting.

– Population estimates drive federal/state funding formulas

– It is not too early to maximize participation

Conclusions

• Recession deeper than any we have experienced in our lifetimes

• Recovery in rural North Carolina will play out over a long period of time

• Poverty in increasing across the state; it will get worse before it gets better