Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas
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Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major
Crops Areas
Update prepared byClimate Prediction Center / NCEP
28 February 2011
For Real-time information:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/
Outline
• Highlights
• ENSO Current Status
• MJO Current Status
• Monsoons Current Status
• Southern Hemisphere Circulation
• Rainfall & Temperature Patterns
• NCEP/GFS Model Forecast
• Forecast Verification
Australia: A ridge of high pressure maintained dry, hot conditions across central and eastern Australia. Rainfall decreased across monsoon areas of northern Australia as well. A major tropical cyclone may impact northeastern Queensland during the upcoming week.
Southern Africa: Scattered showers and thunderstorms fell across corn croplands of southern Africa. An area of below-average rainfall was observed across far northern South Africa.
South America: A second week of below-average rainfall was observed in southeastern Brazil, with drier weather overspreading the central plateau region as well. Showers and thunderstorms were observed across northern and central Argentina, but the far northern states (Chaco and Formosa) received below average accumulation.
Highlights
ENSO Current Status
For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
During the last 4-weeks (31 Dec – 26 Feb 2011), SSTs were at least 1.0°C below average between 165°E and 110°W, while regions of above-average temperatures have emerged in the far eastern Pacific.
General Summary:
• A mature La Niña is present across the equatorial Pacific.
• Negative sea surface temperature anomalies have begun to weaken in parts of the Pacific Ocean.
• ENSO-Neutral or La Niña conditions are equally likely during May-June 2011.
MJO Current Status
The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes
The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO
Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.
Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength
Line colors distinguish different months
MJO Index -- Recent Evolution Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast
RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days
light gray shading: 90% of forecasts
dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts
Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members
Green Line – Ensemble Mean
For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml
The MJO signal remained disorganized during the previous week.
The GEFS forecast indicates a continued weak MJO signal during week 1, with some ensemble members increasing amplitude in week-2.
Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status
South America Southern Africa Australia
For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/
Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days
Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: OCT-MAR Monsoon Season: NOV-APR
Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days
Southern Hemisphere Circulation200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies - Recent 7 days
Low-level (925 hPa or ~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations.
Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.
AA
Southern Hemisphere Circulation
Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than-average conditions.
Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-average conditions.
Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days
CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.
Australia
• Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns• Temperature Patterns• GFS Forecast
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days
Total Anomaly
During the last 7 days, widespread copious rainfall fell across monsoon regions of the tropical north.
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days
Total Anomaly
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days
Total Anomaly
Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC)
Extreme Minimum
Anomaly
Extreme Maximum Mean
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 28 Feb 2011 – Days 1-7
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 28 Feb 2011 – Days 8-14
Southern Africa
• Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns• Temperature Patterns• GFS Forecast
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days
Total Anomaly
• Below-average rainfall was observed across Kwazulu-Natal’s coastal sugarcane croplands.
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days
Total Anomaly
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days
Total Anomaly
Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC)
Extreme Minimum
Anomaly
Extreme Maximum Mean
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 28 Feb 2011 – Days 1-7
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 28 Feb 2011 – Days 8-14
Brazil & Argentina
• Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns• Temperature Patterns• GFS Forecast
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days
Total
Argentina
Brazil
Anomaly• Heavy monsoon thunderstorms overspread northern Mato Grosso, Tocantins, and western Bahia.
•Numerous showers and thunderstorms fell across northern and central Argentina.
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 15 Days
Total
Argentina
Brazil
Anomaly
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days
Total
Argentina
Brazil
Anomaly
Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days
Temperature (°C) - BrazilBased on GTS Stations (no QC)
Extreme Minimum
Anomaly
Extreme Maximum Mean
Extreme Minimum
Anomaly
Extreme Maximum Mean
Temperature (°C) - ArgentinaBased on GTS Stations (no QC)
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 28 Feb 2011 – Days 1-7
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 28 Feb 2011 – Days 8-14
USDA Crop Information
Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles
http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP
Crop Calendars by Month
http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars
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