Transcript
Solar Energy at a Glance
Business opportunities in inDiA……
Author: Lokender Yadav
LET THERE BE LIGHT, LET THERE BE POWER……
ENERGY FROM THE SUN
• The energy per time put out by the Sun is its luminosity, is 3.8 x 1026 Joules per second (according to NASA).
• This means that it has enough energy to fulfill all our energy needs in 8 minutes of sunshine.
Photo Voltaic Scenario(Globally)
Europe/Germany Japan USA
Birth/R&D Development/Growth User/Buyer
CHINA (CAPTURE)
GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY SCENARIO
GLOBAL PV SCENARIO
• Before 2004, most of the technology manufacturers lost money
• Demand was primarily into off-grid applications
• From 2005 through 2011, the PV industry grew by a compound annual rate of 59%
CURRENT STATE OF INDUSTRY
• Supply side participants are suffering from negative margins
• Large losses and are shutting production
• Currently the strongest market, Italy, is slowing because of high debt
• German market is slowing and the other markets cannot pick
up the slack ( Q Cells )
• China has built up the strongest global export market but its
manufacturers are experiencing significant losses
• Chinese government has decided to install PV capacity
domestically and to control capacity additions.
. Pollution standard forcing closures in China
INDIAN PV SCENARIO
• Coal based power tariffs are bound to increase in coming years while solar based power tariffs will keep declining
• Industry observers think that the inflection point could be when the cost of solar based power becomes equal or close enough to that of coal based power
• This is expected to happen in the next two to four years
Why china is a global technology leader……………..
• INCENTIVE BASED MANUFACTURING
• (TRADE SURPLUS)CHINA
• SUBSIDY BASED MANUFACTURING
• (Trade Deficit ) INDIA
SOLAR PV SYSTEMS
Small decentralized SPV systems SL, SLS, HLS, Power packs < 1kWp
Stand-alone/ Off-grid SPV power plants > 1kWp
(with local distribution line)
SPV Rooftop Systems for abatement of diesel for power generation (grid/off-grid) 10-100kWp
Grid-connected SPV power plants MW-scale
Electricity Scenario in Cities & Towns
• Most cities & towns experiencing increasing demand for electricity
• Heavy load shedding by Utilities. Sometimes even 8 to 10 hours in many cities & towns.
• Electric gadgets of no use during such time when required.
• Diesel generators being used to meet demand.
• SPV Roof -top systems can provide a solution to some extent
•Roof top systems• Independent system •On grid•Off grid
Options:
Risk factors…
• Unstable market due price flux : Cost cutting competition • China may reach to market deadlock due to continuous
international pressure and internal market challenges.• Subsidy policies generally attract investors but less likely to work at
zero level• Business saturation point comes very rapidly if dynamic model is
not implemented.• More competitor prone industry because of multiple business
model availability and any range of investment may allow individual to get into this industry.
• Quality and quality control both are crucial at every level.(manufacturing to application)
• As per the Current industry scenario capital cost recovery can be done minimum in 7 years.
Risk factorsbut…
one should always remember opportunity always comes with risk
GOVT support TO SOLAR INDUSTRY
100% Foreign Direct Investment
Zero Customs & Excise Duties on cells and modules
Zero or low Customs and Excise duty on many items
Tax Holiday for setting up units in backward/specified areas
Tax Holiday for power generation projects
% accelerated depreciation in first year
Soft loan for setting up manufacturing facility
100%Grant for research and development by MNRE
Revised CSR policy Company ACT(2013)
Turn over : 1000 crNet worth : 500 crNet profit : 5 crApplicable from the fiscal year 14-15
The act encourages companies to spend at least 2% of their average profit in the previous three years on CSR activities.Even SMEs are also coming under this act.
How to enter into market…
• EPC model• Module manufacturer Model• O&M Model• Cell Manufacturing Model• Technical Consultancy Model • R&D• CSR Strategy model• Grid feed in model• Sales of carbon credits
Commercials ….
• Solar panel cost(INR): 30-45/W• Charge controller(INR): 400-40000
(depending upon the rating)• Battery(INR): 15-22/W hour (15% of total
solar system installation cost)• Invertor (INR): 12.4- 31/W• Miscellaneous (INR): 30-60/W• TOTAL MINIMUM COST/W is: 91/WFOR 1KW COST IS APPROXIMATELY 1.2-1.8L
ROOF-TOP SPV SYSTEMCOVERAGE/ TARGET GROUPS
• Commercial establishments (Malls, Hotels, Hospitals, Large
Homes, Nursing homes etc.) and housing complexes using
diesel generators for back-up power even during daytime
• DG set of minimum 5 KVa is preferred
ACDC
To batteryAC
Master opportunity….
Solar Panelsystem
TOP TEN INDIAN MARKET PLAYERSCOMPANY NAME REVENUE(INR CRORE)
TATA POWER SOLAR SYSTEM LTD. 510.5
VIKRAM SOLAR PVT.LTD 381.5
EMMVEE GROUP 362
WAAREE ENERGIES LTD 297
MOSER BAER SOLAR GROUP 242
WEBSOL ENERGY SYSTEM LTD. 125.5
PHOTON ENERGY SYSTEM LTD. 111.6
SWELECT ENERGY SYSTEM LTD. 105.4
SURANA VENTURES LTD.
PREMIER SOLAR SYSTEM PVT.LTD
95.6
72.2
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