Transcript
Surface water forecasting for the Commonwealth Games
Linda SpeightSNIFFER Conference
February 2015
Developing a pilot surface water forecasting tool for Glasgow and operational use during the
Commonwealth Games
SEPA - L. Speight, M. Cranston, A. Tavendale, CEH - R.J. Moore, S.J. Cole,Met Office - B. Golding, C. Pierce, B. Wright, N. Roberts, James Hutton
Institute - S. Ghimire, S. Dunn, Deltares – J. Dhandia
Dr. Linda SpeightSEPA
Scottish Flood Forecasting Service
Glasgow 2002 © GCC
• Existing approaches to surface water forecasting
• Why a pilot in Glasgow?• Technical model set up• Operational use during
the Games• What next?
Aims & Objectives
• Review emerging science
• Develop a pilot methodology for surface water flood forecasting in Scotland
Operationally useful Integrate with current
SFFS toolsConvective showers May 10th 2014
Summer flooding in Glasgow
July 2002, June 2007, August 2011, July 2012, July 2013
The Commonwealth Games
• High profile event to demonstrate science
• Opportunity to share resources / knowledge
• Strategic Flood Risk Assessment for Games identified flooding as a risk
• Well established network of responders
Steering Group
• Provide input, advice and data
• Advise on existing models and mapping
• Inform on what alerting mechanisms would be beneficial
• Provide link between project and responder community
SFFS Games Operations
BriefingBriefing
BriefingBriefing
Met Office Meteorologist
Met Office Meteorologist
SEPA National flood forecasting hydrologist
SEPA National flood forecasting hydrologist
Wider resilience and responder community in
Glasgow
Wider resilience and responder community in
GlasgowFlood AlertFlood Alert
National FGS
National FGS
SEPA Games flood forecasting hydrologist
SEPA Games flood forecasting hydrologist
SEPA Resilience Officer
SEPA Resilience Officer
Games Multi Agency Control
Centre
Games Multi Agency Control
Centre
Glasgow DSWFF
Glasgow DSWFF
Launch weekend 19th – 20th July
HRA Probability of greater than 20mm in 3 hours
18/07/2014 16:30 GMT
18/07/2014 21:30 GMT
19/07/2014 03:30 GMT
TransportPeople & Property
19/07/201409:32 GMT
19/07/201415:27 GMT
TransportPeople & Property
Final weekend 2nd – 3rd AugustProbability of > 20mm in 3 hours
Success and future development
• Actively addressed the challenge of surface water flooding
• Linked science and operational needs• Real time inclusion of impacts• Learnt about the importance of
communication
How can we extend this to other areas in the future?
Responders were ‘hanging on every
word (of the forecast) when the weather
turned and the forecasts were pretty
accurate’.
What next for Scotland?• Development of heavy rainfall alert
tool
• Reviewing how we deal with large data volumes in our system
• Working on improving best practice in communicating uncertainty
More information:SFFS Blog: www.floodforecastingservice.netStage 1 project report: http://www.crew.ac.uk/publications/ (final report in progress)Journal Paper: submitted to Journal of Flood Risk Management
SFFS Blog: http://floodforecastingservice.net/2014/07/14/operational-surface-water-flood-forecasting-model-for-glasgow-now-live/CEH blog: http://cehsciencenews.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/surface-water-flood-risk-forecasting-glasgow-commonwealth-games.htmlSEPA view: http://www.sepaview.com/2014/07/new-surface-water-flood-forecasting-tool-benefits-glasgow-and-the-commonwealth-games/ HEPEX blog: http://hepex.irstea.fr/developing-a-pilot-surface-water-flood-forecasting-tool-for-glasgow-and-operational-use-during-the-commonwealth-games/Stage 1 project report: http://www.crew.ac.uk/publications/surface-water-flood-forecasting-urban-communities-reviewSEPA Flood forecasting and warning strategy: http://www.sepa.org.uk/flooding/idoc.ashx?docid=694c7071-519d-4967-835d-9bd087c18d64&version=-1Speight, Cole, Moore, Pierce, Wright, Golding, Cranston, Tavendale, Dhondia, Ghimire (2015) Developing surface water flood forecasting capabilities in Scotland: an operational pilot for the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. Journal of Flood Risk Management. Submitted
Full References
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