Sea Level Rise Impacts on Sea Water Intrusion into …I ـــــــــسذنلا مـــــــسق Infrastructure Program Sea Level Rise Impacts on Sea Water Intrusion into
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I
Sea Level Rise Impacts on Sea Water Intrusion
into Gaza Strip Aquifer
الخزانلي إتوي البحر علي تداخل مياه البحر ر ارتفاع مستأثيفي قطاع غزة الجوفي
Submitted by:
Mahmood H. Mattar
Supervised by:
Prof. Yunes Mogheir
Professor in Water Resources
& Environment
A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree
of Master of Engineering
December/2018
The Islamic University Gaza
Deanship of Research and Graduate Studies
Faculty of Engineering
Department of Civil Engineering
Infrastructure Program
زةــــــغب تــالميــــــت اإلســـــــــامعـالج
البحث العلمي والذراساث العليا عمادة
الهنـــــــــــــذســت تـــــــــــــــــــــــليـــك
المذنيــــــــــــتقســـــــم الهنذســـــــــت
برنـــــــــامج البنيـــــــت التحتيـــــــــــت
II
إقــــــــــــــرار
أنا الموقع أدناه مقدم الرسالة التي تحمل العنوان:
Sea Level Rise Impacts on Sea Water Intrusion
Into Gaza Aquifer
الخزانلي إتوي البحر علي تداخل مياه البحر ر ارتفاع مستأثي الجوفي في قطاع غزة
أقر بأن ما اشتملت عليو ىذه الرسالة إنما ىو نتاج جيدي الخاص، باستثناء ما تمت اإلشارة إليو حيثما ورد،
حثي لدى أي لنيل درجة أو لقب علمي أو ب االخرين وأن ىذه الرسالة ككل أو أي جزء منيا لم يقدم من قبل
مؤسسة تعليمية أو بحثية أخرى.
Declaration
I hereby certify that this submission is the result of my own work, except
where otherwise acknowledged, and that this thesis (or any part of it) has
not been submitted for a higher degree or quantification to any other
university or institution. All copyrights are reserves to IUG.
:Student's name يحىد حذ يطش اسم الطالب:
التوقيع:
Signature:
25/12/2018 التاريخ:Date:
III
IV
دي ي أ ت ما كسب ر ب
ح ب ر وال ب
ي ال
ساد ف ف هر ال
ي عملوأ ظ د ال
عض هم ي
ق ي د اس لي الن
( عون رج هم ي (14لعل
سورة الروم
V
Abstract " Sea level rise impacts on sea water intrusion in Gaza strip aquifer"
The aquifer in the Gaza Strip is suffering from the problem of salinization of ground
water resulting from sea water intrusion into the aquifer. During this research, an
assessment of one of the climate changes factors that may contribute to increase the
sea water intrusion to groundwater was carried out. This is the rise of the sea level,
which is expected to reach about 37 cm by the middle of this century (2050). The
assessment of the impacts was through the use of numerical method (Modeling).
Rainfall recharge maps were created using the GIS for the years 2010-2016. About
40% of the rainfall reaches the groundwater, and was used during modeling
seawater intrusion into the aquifer in the Gaza Strip for the extended modeling period
in 2050.
The impact of sea level rise on seawater intrusion into the aquifer was assessed by
the change in chloride concentration in the aquifer using the Modflow program to
create flow model and Seawat model to determine sea water intrusion into the Gaza
strip aquifer. Two scenarios were considered: the first without the effect of sea level
rise, while the second with the effect of rising sea level.
The results showed that the aquifer in the Gaza Strip will suffer from the arrival of
sea water to 2788m and 2858m from the sea shore line in Rafah city in 2032 under
the first and second scenarios respectively. The intrusion will reach one third of the
aquifer in 2050, in addition to more than half of the aquifer will contain a chloride
concentration up to 2000 mg/l.
In relation to the effect of sea level rise on sea water intrusion into the aquifer , the
results showed an increase in sea water intrusion into the aquifer not exceeding 100
meters in year 2050. This is a small contribution to the sea water intrusion compared
to other factors that cause sea water intrusion into aquifer such as over pumping from
the aquifer and reduction in the aquifer recharge.
Key-Words: Seawater intrusion , Sea level rise , Climate change , Gaza strip
VI
الملخص
" في قطاع غزة الجوفي الخزان ر إلير ارتفاع مستوي البحر علي تداخل مياه البحتأثي"
انخضا ؼا انخضا اندىف ف قطاع غضج ي يشكهح ذهح انا اندىفح اناذدح ػ ذذاخم يا انثحش إن
انر ذؼذ يصذس انا انىحذ انغز نهسكا ف قطاع غضج , خالل هزا انثحث ذد دساسح ذقح ألحذ اندىف
انثحش و انز ي يهى اسذفاع يسرى انخضا اندىف انرغشاخ اناخح انر قذ ذسهى ف صادج ذذاخم انثحش إن
( ي خالل اسرخذاو انطشقح انؼذدح " 0202سى يغ يرصف انقش انحان ) 73انرىقغ أ صم إن قشاتح
انزخح "
ظى انؼهىياخ اندغشافح ذى إشاء خشائظ إػادج ذغزح انخضا اندىف ي يا األيطاس تاسرخذاو تشايح
خضا اندىف , و إن ان% ي يا األيطاس ذصم 02و أظهشخ أ قشاتح ,0202و 0202نهسىاخ ت ػاو
ف قطاع غضج نفرشج انزخح انرذج حر انخضا اندىفاسرخذيد خالل ػهح زخح ذذاخم يا انثحش إن
. 0202ػاو
ذشكض االػراد ػهت انخضا اندىف إن انثحش يا ذاخمذ ػه انثحش طحس يسرىي اسذفاع ذأثش ذقى ذى
إن انثحش يا ذسشب نرحذذ Seawat وىرج , ذذفق ىرج إلشاء Modflow تشايح اسرخذو ,ذانكهىس
تا , انثحش سطح يسرىي اسذفاع ذأثش دو األول , ساسىه ػرثاسا ذى. غضجقطاع ف انخضا اندىف
.انثحش سطح يسرىي اسذفاع ذأثش يغ انثا
و ف 0202و و 0322إن ؼا ي وصىل يا انثحش ف قطاع غضج س انخضا اندىفو أظهشخ انرائح تأ
ف إطاس انساسى األول و انثا ػه انرشذة , و يرىقغ أ صم إن ثهث انخضا 0270يطقح سفح ف ػاو
تاإلضافح إن أ أكثش ي صف انخضا اندىف سحرى ػه سثح ذشكض كهىسذ 0202اندىف ف ػاو
يهغى / نرش . 0222ذصم إن
أيا ف يا رؼهق تأثش اسذفاع يسرى انثحش ػه ذذاخم يا انثحش إن انخضا اندىف فأظهشخ انرائح صادج ف
يرش , و ؼذ رنك يساهح قههح تقاسح يغ ػىايم 022ذذاخم يا انثحش إن طثقح انا اندىفح ال ذرداوص
ندىف و ذاقص ذغزح ايثم انضخ انفشط ي انخضا سثثح نرذاخم يا انثحش إن انخضا اندىف أخش ي
انخضا اندىف .
ذسشب يا انثحش , اسذفاع يسرى انثحش , انرغش اناخ , قطاع غضج .كلماث مفتاحيت :
VII
Dedication
This thesis is dedicated to my parents, my wife and my children,
For their endless love, support and encouragement.
VIII
Acknowledgement
I would like to express my thanks to the supervisor, Prof. Yunes
Mogheir, for all the good advice in the project. The work in this thesis
was not completed without his instructions and supervision.
I am also grateful to anyone who has taught me a letter throughout my
scientific life.
IX
Table of contents
Abstract ..................................................................................................................... V
VI ......................................................................................................................... يهخص
Dedication ............................................................................................................... VII
Acknowledgement ................................................................................................. VIII
List of figures ......................................................................................................... .XII
List of tables ............................................................................................................ XV
Acronyms and abbreviations ................................................................................. XVI
Chapter1 Introduction ..........................................................................................1
1.1 Introduction ……………………….…………………………………………....2
1.2 Problem Statement…………………………………………………………….2
1.3 Research Objectives……………………………………………………………3
1.4 Research Importance…………………………………………………………..3
1.5 Research Structure…………………………………………………………….4
Chapter 2Literature Review ……………………………………...…………......6
2.1 Climate Changes ……………………………………….……..…………….7
2.1.1 Definition of climate changes ………………………….………………………7
2.1.2 Causes of climate change ………………………………….…………………...8
2.1.3 Observed changes & Future prediction …………………………..…………….9
2.1.4 Impacts of climate change…………………………………………………….12
2.2 Sea level rise ……………………………………………………………14
2.2.1 Sea level rise historically …………………………………………..…………15
2.2.2 Approaches of study sea level rise impact…..………………………………...16
2.2.3 Concluding Remarks…………………………………………………………..28
Chapter 3 Study Area : Gaza Strip ………………………………………...…29
3.1 Geography…..…..…………………………………………………………….30
3.2 Geology……………………………………………………………………….30
3.3 Topography……....…………………………………………………………...31
3.4 Aquifer….…...………..…………...………………………………………….32
3.5 Soil…..…….……………………………………………..…………………...34
3.6 Rainfall…...…..……….………………………..…………………………….35
3.7 Population…………………………………………………………………….36
X
3.8 Ground Water Level…………...…………………………………………...37
3.9 Water Quality...……………………………………………………………...38
3.9.1 Chloride concentration………………………………………………………...39
3.9.2 Nitrate concentration…………………………………………………………..39
Chapter 4 Research Methodology ………………………………………..…..42
4.1 The Methodology……..….…………………………………………………..43
4.2 Preparing data...……………………………………………………………...45
4.3 Recharge Model…..…………………………………………………………45
4.4 Modflow Model………..……………………………………………………47
4.5 Seawat Model……………..…………………………………………………48
4.6 Prediction of future scenarios ………...…….………………………………...50
Chapter 5 Results and Discussions …………………………………………...51
5.1 Recharge Model……………………………………………………………...52
5.2 Groundwater Flow and Seawat Modeling……………………………...54
5.2.1 Model setting up ……………………………………………………………...54
5.2.2 Pumping wells ………………………………………………………………...56
5.2.3 Head Observation wells ……………………………………………………....57
5.2.4 Concentration Observation wells ……………………………………………..58
5.2.5 Layers and Properties …………………………………………………………59
5.2.6 Boundary Conditions for Seawat ……………………………………………..61
5.2.7 Models calibration………………..…………………………………………..61
5.3 Prediction of mean sea level rise Impacts…...…………………64
5.3.1 First Scenario: without the effect mean sea level rise ………………...……...64
5.3.2 Second Scenario: with the effect mean sea level rise ……………………...68
5.4 Comparison between the two scenarios…………………………….....71
5.5 Comparison of current research with other researchers…………...72
Chapter 6 Conclusions and Recommendations ………………………….....73
6.1 Conclusion……………….…………………………………………………....74
6.2 Recommendations…...………………………………………………………..74 References ……………………………………………………………………...…76
XI
Appendix …………………………………………………………...……………..81
XII
List of figures
Figure (2.1) : Total annual anthropogenic GHG emissions by gases 1970-2010 ....…8
Figure (2.2) : Contribution of fossil fuels to CO2 emissions during 1970-2010 ….....9
Figure (2.3) : CO2 concentration predictions ..............................................................9
Figure (2.4) : Surface temperature : past –present ...…………………………..……10
Figure (2.5) : Change in average surface temperature until 2100..……... …… ……10
Figure (2.6): Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature
anomaly ……………………………………………………………………………..11
Figure (2.7) : Ocean acid …………….………………………………………….….11
Figure (2.8) : Change in average precipitation until 2100 ……………………...…..12
Figure (2.9) : Globally averaged sea level change………………………..…..……..15
Figure (2.10) : Sea rise expected during the 21st century …………………………..16
Figure (2.11) : Parameters of the aquifer used ……………………………………...20
Figure (2.12,a ) : Flux-Controlled …………………………………………………..21
Figure (2.12,b ) : Head-Controlled Systems …………….…………………………21
Figure (2.13) : Results of the analysis under the conditions of the first scenario ….22
Figure (2.14) : Compares the results of the first, third and fifth scenarios ………....23
Figure (2.15) : Compares the results of the second , four and fifth scenarios ……...23
Figure (2.16) : Sensitivity results ………...………………………………………....24
Figure (2.17) : The change of the interface toe position LT for different scenarios of
sea-level rise ……………………………………………………………………..…26
Figures (2.18) : Results for the six scenarios in order ……………………………...27
Figure(2.19): The results of the scenario analysis on the north Gaza aquifer ……...28
Figure (3.1) : Location map of Gaza Strip, Palestine ……………………………....30
Figure (3.2) : Topography of Gaza Strip (topographic-map, 2018) …………..……31
Figure (3.3) : flow into Gaza Strip aquifer ……………………………….………...32
Figure (3.4) : Typical hydrogeological cross section of Gaza Strip …………..…....33
Figure (3.5) : The different hydraulic conductivity values …………………………33
Figure (3.6) : Water balance of Gaza Strip ………………………….……………...34
Figure (3.7) : Soil map of Gaza Strip …………………...…………………………..35
Figure (3.8) : average annual rainfall with the Gaza Strip ………………….………36
XIII
Figure (3.9) : Water Level the Gaza Strip in 2016 ……………….………………...38
Figure (3.10) : Chloride Concentration in the Gaza Strip in 2016 ……..………...…40
Figure (3.11): Nitrate Concentration in the Gaza Strip ………………...…………..41
Figure (4.1) : Research Methodology ………………………………………………44
Figure (4.2) : Built up area in Gaza strip …………………………………………...46
Figure (5.1.a) : Rainfall in 2010 …………………………………………..………...52
Figure (5.1.b) : Recharge in 2010 ………………………………………..…………52
Figure (5.2.a) : Rainfall in 2013 ………………………………………………….....53
Figure (5.2.b) : Recharge in 2013 …………………………………………………..53
Figure (5.3.a) : Rainfall in 2016 …………………………………………………....53
Figure (5.3.b) : Recharge in 2016 ………………………………………………......53
Figure (5.4) : The grid model …………………………………………………...….54
Figure (5.5) : The boundaries head in 2016 …………………………………...……55
Figure (5.6) : Distribution of pumping wells in Gaza strip. …………………….…...56
Figure (5.7) : Distribution of head observation wells in Gaza strip. ………………...57
Figure (5.8) : Distribution of concentration observation wells in Gaza strip ………..58
Figure (5.9.a) : A cross-section of the layers in North of Gaza strip (section A-A
in Figure (5.8)) …..………………………………………………………………....59
Figure (5.9.b) : A cross-section of the layers in South of Gaza strip (section B-B in
Figure(5.8)) …………………………………………. ……………………………..59
Figure (5.10) : The hydraulic conductivity zones in the model …….……….60
Figure (5.11.a) : Flow model calibration in 2013……………….………..……...62
Figure (5.11.b) : Seawat model calibration in 2013 …….…………………………..62
Figure (5.12.a) : Flow model calibration in 2016 ………………………………...63
Figure (5.12.b) : Seawat model calibration in 2016 ……………………….………..64
Figure (5.13.a) : Seawater intrusion in layer seven by modflow from 2022 to 2032.65
Figure (5.13.b) : Seawater intrusion in layer seven by modflow from 2037 to 2050.66
Figure (5.14) : A cross section show the seawater intrusion in all layers from 2022
to 2050 in North of Gaza strip ( section A-A).……………………………..……….67
Figure (5.15.a) : Seawater intrusion in layer seven by modflow from 2022 to 2032.68
Figure (5.15.b) : Seawater intrusion in layer seven by modflow from 2037 to 2050.69
XIV
Figure (5.16) : A cross section show the seawater intrusion in all layers from 2022
to 2050 in North of Gaza strip (section X-X).……………………………. ………..70
XV
List of tables
Table (2.1) : Parameters of the aquifer used (Werner & Simmons, 2009)...….....….20
Table (3.1) : The main types of soils available in the Gaza Strip…………………...34
Table (3.2) : Population in Gaza Governorates in 2016 ………….…………...…....37
Table (4.1) : filtration rate for the different soils available in the Gaza Strip……….45
Table (5.1) : The hydraulic conductivity in Gaza strip ……………..………………60
Table (5.2) : The other properties for layers …………………………...…………..61
Table (5.3) : Comparison between the two scenarios for the location of 16000 mg/l in
Jabalia ………………………………………………………………………………71
Table (5.4) : Comparison between the two scenarios for the location of 16000mg/l in
Rafah ………………………………………………………………………………..71
Table (A-1) : Levels of the Gaza Strip ………………………………………….…. 81
Table (A-2) : Coordinates of the monitoring stations in the Gaza strip ………….... 85
Table (A-3) : Water Levels of the Gaza Strip in Sep. 2016 and average ……….….85
Table (A-4) : Concentration " CL " of the Gaza Strip in. 2016. …………...…..…..87
XVI
Acronyms and abbreviations
GIS Geographical Information Systems
GMSL Global Mean Sea Level
MSL Mean Sea level
km Kilometer
m Meter
NASA National Aeronautics And Space Administration
PWA Palestinian Water Authority
WHO World Health Organization
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
CCSP Climate Change Science Program
UNEP United Nations Environment Program
CMWU Coastal Municipalities Water Utility
AMAP Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program
PCBS Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics
GHG Green Houses Gases
CO2 Carbon Dioxide
CH4 Methane gas
N2O Nitrous oxide
ppm Parts Per Million
C Celsius
NGND29 National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929
l/c/d Liter per Capita per Day
TDS Total Dissolved Solids
MCM Million Cubic Meter
mg/l Milligram Per Liter
1
Chapter one
Introduction
2
1 Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1 Introduction:
The aquifers are an important resource in coastal regions because these serve as
major sources for freshwater supply in many countries around the world, especially
in arid and semi-arid zones (Naderi et al., 2013) .
Groundwater is the only natural source that feeds the population in fresh water in the
Gaza Strip about 98% of consumption, most of these coastal regions rely on
groundwater as their main source of fresh water for domestic, industrial and
agricultural purposes, the coastal aquifer in Gaza jointly with occupied Palestine and
parts of northern Egypt. The water sector suffers from a number of problems, the
problem of water salinity is the most prominent, the sea water intrusion into the
coastal aquifer explained one of the features of this problem (Bably, 2016;PWA,
2014).
Seawater intrusion occurs when saline (salty) water is drawn into a freshwater
aquifer. Seawater intrusion can affect one well, or multiple wells in an aquifer,
making the water unpotable (unpleasant to drink) (Barroso & Henderson, 2016).
Seawater intrusion is affected by several direct factors, for example, rate of pumping
from wells, rainfall rates, soil type and layers conductivity, As well as indirect
factors resulting from changes in climate, such as tidal fluctuations, long-term
climate and sea level changes, fractures in coastal rock formations and seasonal
changes in evaporation, recharge rate (Barlow, 2003).
Climate change is the main factor in sea level change, through variations in
atmospheric pressure, rising temperatures, melting of ice, which leads to sea level
change (Werner& Simmons, 2009).
Global mean sea level (GMSL) increased by an average rate of 1.8 mm/year during
the 20th century. The IPCC (2007) reports a high confidence that this rate has been
increasing (Lo´aiciga et al ., 2012).
1.2 Problem Statement:
Gaza coastal aquifer is the main source of water for supplying agriculture, domestic,
and industrial purposes in Gaza Strip, and provides about 98% of all water supplies
3
(PWA, 2014). The aquifer in Gaza suffers from some problems, most notably the
high salinity of water due to the sea water intrusion into the aquifer.
The industrial revolution has contributed significantly to the rapid increase in climate
change and global warming, which affects the whole world, leaving behind the rising
sea level due to the melting of ice and other reasons. Many international studies have
revealed that this rise of the sea level contributes to the increase of sea water
intrusion into the aquifer. However, in the Gaza Strip this rise might contribute to
increase the sea-water intrusion into the coastal aquifer. This study will be the first
attempt to study the impact of the sea level rise on sea water intrusion into the Gaza
Strip aquifer.
1.3 Research Objectives:
The main aim of this research is to determine the contribution of sea level rise in the
increase of sea water intrusion into groundwater in the Gaza Strip.
To be more specific, the objectives of this research are:
To develop GIS model, to predict values of the recharge that will feed the
aquifer.
To predict the extent of sea water " intrusion" in future depending on
various scenarios of future sea level and other hydrological using numerical
approach.
1.4 Research Importance:
Based on several studies, the relationship between sea level change and sea water
intrusion into the aquifer in the Gaza Strip in particular has not been studied, except
for a study of the northern Gaza Strip, which represents a small area of the total area
of the Gaza Strip.
This research can be considered an accurate contribution to illustrate this effect on
the aquifer in Gaza strip, as well as a contribution to the study of climate change in
our region. This may be useful in the management of groundwater by the competent
institutions, specifically on the subject of groundwater consumption.
4
1.5 Research Structure:
The thesis is divided into six chapters and appendix.
Chapter One (Introduction):
The first chapter presents an overview of groundwater in the Gaza Strip with a focus
on the problem of sea water intrusion, a description of the problem in the Gaza Strip,
presents the main objectives of the research and explains the importance of this
research and what it can offer decision makers.
Chapter Two (Literature Review):
The second chapter presents a historical overview of global and local climate
changes, with previous studies showing the impact of climate change on different
lifestyles such as agriculture and water.
This chapter continues to present a special and deep historical overview of sea level
changes in the past and predict the future. The latest studies in the field of sea level
rise affect sea water intrusion into the aquifer around the world and local studies in
this regard.
Chapter Three (Study Area):
The third chapter deals with the description of the area of study "Gaza Strip" in terms
of: geology, topography, soil, aquifer, rainfall, groundwater level, water quality and
population .
Chapter Four (Methodology):
The fourth chapter defines the methodology used in this research and presents a
presentation of the tools used in the research, such as GIS and Modflow , in addition
to the expected scenarios.
Chapter Five (Results and Discussion):
The fifth chapter provides a modeling approach for the Gaza Strip to produce
recharging maps for the aquifer for the specified years by GIS and then use them in
the Modflow model to predict the effect of sea level changes on sea water intrusion
into the aquifer in the Gaza Strip, and comparing results from previous studies.
5
Chapter Six (Conclusions and Recommendations):
The sixth chapter presents the conclusions and recommendations of this research .
Appendix
Appendix provides databases used for research through Gaza Strip data tables and
maps such as water level, aquifer, land use maps, soil maps, etc.. .
6
Chapter two
Literature Review
7
Chapter two : Literature Review
This chapter presented a historical overview of global and local climate changes and
sea level changes in the past and predict the future. It also presented previous studies
showed the impacts of climate change on different lifestyles such as agriculture and
water. In addition, the chapter illustrated sea level rise impact on sea water intrusion
into the aquifers around the world and local studies in this regard.
2.1 Climate Changes:
Climate is a dynamic system and subject to natural variations at various time-scales,
from years to millennia (Sherif & Singh, 1999). Changes in climate have significant
implications for present lives, for future generations and for ecosystems on which
humanity depends. Consequently, climate change has been and continues to be the
subject of intensive scientific research and public debate (Royal society,2010). There
is robust scientific consensus that human-induced climate change is occurring
(CCSP, 2008). During the past 200 years, human influence on the climate system is
clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) are the highest
in history (IPCC, 2014). Many studies indicate that natural causes do not exceed 1%
( PHI & CCCH, 2016).
2.1.1 Definition of climate changes:
Some climate-related institutions and reports have definitions of climate change :
National Aeronautics And Space Administration, Climate change is a change in the
usual weather found in a place. This could be a change in how much rain a place
usually gets in a year. Or it could be a change in a place's usual temperature for a
month or season. Climate change is also a change in Earth's climate. This could be a
change in Earth's usual temperature. Or it could be a change in where rain and snow
usually fall on Earth (Nasa, 2014).
The Public Health Institute / Center for Climate Change and Health, Climate change
is “ a systematic change in the long-term state of the atmosphere over multiple
decades or longer ” (PHI & CCCH, 2016).
World Health Organization (WHO), climate change is a disturbance in the earth's
atmosphere with the rise in the temperature of the planet, and a significant change in
8
the nature of natural phenomena with a tendency to violence, and the continued
deterioration of vegetation and environmental diversity (Michael et al., 2003).
2.1.2 Causes of climate change:
During the last millennium, changes in the output of energy from the sun, volcanic
eruptions and increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have
been the most important forcing. Total irradiative forcing has been positive and has
led to an up-take of energy by the climate system (IPCC, 2013). The warming
observed since the middle of the last century is likely due to increased human and
economic activities that have led to increased greenhouse gas ( CO2 , CH4 and N2O)
emissions, as shown in Figure (2.1).
The carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere (2040 GtCO2) between 1750 and
2010 were caused by economic activity, about 40% of which remained in the
atmosphere, the oceans retained about 30% and the rest were stored in plants and
soils, and about (1020 GtCO2) emissions Carbon dioxide is the product of just 40
years, in particular between 2000 and 2010, despite a decrease of (49 GtCO2) in
2010 (IPCC, 2014). Fossil fuels accounted for 78% of CO2 emissions during 1970
and 2010, as shown in Figure(2.2). By 2016, CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere
were 404 (PPM), the highest levels in 400,000 years and up almost 7% since 2007
(Henderson, 2017).
Figure (2.1): Total annual anthropogenic GHG emissions by gases 1970-2010
(IPCC, 2013).
9
All predict further increase in carbon dioxide concentrations by the end of this
century, with some of the scenarios predicting a doubling or even trebling of today's
levels of carbon dioxide (ghgonline.org), as shown in Figure (2.3).
Current understanding indicates that even if there was a complete cessation of
emissions of CO2 today from human activity, it would take several millennia for CO2
concentrations to return to preindustrial concentrations (Royal society, 2010).
2.1.3 Observed Changes & Future Prediction:
A study for the Public Health Institute/Center for Climate Change and Health
published in 2016 refers to 97% of climate scientists agree: (Climate change is
Figure (2.2): Contribution of fossil fuels to CO2 emissions during 1850-2010 (IPCC,
2013).
Figure (2.3): CO2 concentration predictions (IPCC, 2013).
10
happening now, It is being driven primarily by human activity and We can do
something to reduce its impacts and progression.) (PHI & CCCH, 2016).
Since the Industrial Revolution, human activities have significantly enhanced the
greenhouse effect causing the Earth's average temperature to rise by 0.80C (Hansen,
2012), with much of this increase taking place since the mid-1970s, as shown in
Figure (2.4). While 2016 was 0.50C warmer than the average for 1981 to 2010 (Met
office, 2016). The global mean surface temperature will expect to change for the
period from 2016 to 2035 by 0.30C to 0.7
0 C and from 2081 to 2100 by more than
1.50C to 2.0
0C. If the predicted increases in greenhouse gas concentrations are then
translated into temperature changes, a global temperature increase of between 10C
and 5.50C in the end century, as shown in Figure (2.5).
Figure (2.4): Surface temperature : past & present (IPCC, 2014).
Figure (2.5): Change in average surface temperature from 1986-2005 to2081- 2100
(IPCC, 2013).
11
The oceans are warmer than the Earth's surface, the upper 75 m rising by an average
of 0.330C during 1970- 2010. While the globally averaged combined Earth's surface
and ocean temperature rose by an average of 0.850C during the period 1885 to 2012
(IPCC, 2014), as shown in Figure (2.6).
As a result, the area of permafrost near the surface (upper 3.5 m) projected to
decrease by 37%, and the global glacier volume is projected to decrease 15 to 55 %
by 2100 (IPCC, 2014).
The CO2 uptake in the oceans increased by 26% acidity due to pH drop of ocean
surface by 0.1, as shown in Figure (2.7) (Henderson, 2017).
Figure (2.6): Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature anomaly
(IPCC, 2014).
Figure (2.7): Ocean acid (Henderson, 2017).
12
Evaporation rates will increase with a warmer climate, causing an increase in the
amount of moisture in the lower atmosphere. With higher water vapor
concentrations, there is an increased frequency of intense precipitation events,
primarily over land areas. However, precipitation changes around the globe will not
be uniform. Some areas will actually see decreases in precipitation. Figure (2.8)
shows the changes in average precipitation for 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005
(NASA,2014).
2.1.4 Impacts of climate change:
The World Health Organization estimated that the warming and precipitation trends
due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over
150,000 lives annually (Patz et al., 2005).
In many regions, changing precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering
hydrological systems, affecting water resources in terms of quantity and quality
many terrestrial, freshwater and marine species have shifted their geographic ranges,
seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances and species interactions in
response to ongoing climate change (IPCC, 2014).
Some studies have examined the impact of climate change such as :
Latifovic & Pouliot, 2007 concerned with assessing the impact of climate change on
the ice lake in Canada in terms of timing of ice melt in the lake, start freezing and
freeze duration, using historical satellite records using infrared sensors, data were
collected for 20 lakes under 180 cases. Analyzes refer to the period from 1950 to
Figure (2.8): Change in average precipitation (1986-2005 to 2081- 2100) (IPCC, 2013).
13
2004 earlier break-up (average 0.18 days/year) and later freeze-up (average 0.12
days/year) for the majority of lakes analyzed. Trend analysis performed shows that
ice break-up is occurring earlier and freeze-up latter for most lakes in Canada with
regional differences between eastern, western and the far northern regions.
Chiew et al., 2009 estimated the impact of climate change on runoff in South East
Australia , using concept model SIMHYD. Results showed uncertainties in runoff in
South East Australia, the majority of modeling predicts a 17% decrease in runoff,
while some modeling indicates a 7% increase in runoff, under thermal warming for
the study area 0.90C.
Lejeusne et al., 2010 assessed the impact of climate change on marine ecosystems,
researchers take the Mediterranean as a small ocean model to study these effects.
The results indicated that the combination of heat stress and lack of food leads to
mass deaths usually in the late summer, especially in the hall such as sponge. In
addition, climate changes have affected the surface plankton area, which represents
food for small surface fish such as sardines and thus a significant decline in their
stock as observed in recent decades, also led to the presence of new species of
predatory fish coming from the Red Sea and the spread of large coasts of the
Mediterranean, leading to a significant decline in the diversity of biological systems,
while in the deep impact on grass and algae.
Ajjur, 2012 investigated the impact of climate change on the groundwater sources in
the northern Gaza Strip by estimating the recharge levels of the aquifer and their
effect on the groundwater level, using three monitoring stations "Beit Lahia station,
Gaza station and Rafah station" using the modeling Modflow program. The model
experiments are two scenarios, the first scenario represents the continued recharge
of the aquifer for 2010 "initial value" as it continues for other years, the other
scenario is the decline in recharge for aquifer in 2015 with the same rate of decline as
in previous years.
WetSpass Model program were used to estimate the recharge levels for the aquifer
for the years 1990 to 2010 through annual precipitation "different from one region to
another". The results for recharge the aquifer were 572.9, 679.5, 426.69,404.9 and
272.3mm for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2010, respectively.
14
The results of the first scenario analysis through the modflow program " for 20 years
2010 to 2030" indicated a decreased in head values "groundwater levels of aquifer"
from -5 meters in mid at 2010 to -6, -7.5, -8 and -8.5 m in 2015, 2020, 2025 and
2030, respectively. While under the conditions of the second scenario, the head value
decreased to -8.5 m in the middle of the region, -7.5 m at the eastern boundary of
2030.
Mizyed, 2018 examined the challenges of climate change on water sources in
Palestine, through hydraulics modeling of annual precipitation and evaporation on
natural groundwater recharge.
The results of this study indicated that a rise in temperature by 20C to 3
0C leads to a
decreased in the annual recharge of the aquifer by 6% to 13% , while the aquifer is
more sensitive to the change in annual precipitation, where it is clear that the
reduction of precipitation by 3 to 10% in precipitation from the annual rate leads to a
reduction in recharge of the aquifers by 3 to 25%.
The study concluded that climate change will be more severe in drier areas, where it
will reduce water availability.
2.2 Sea level rise:
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal , and since the 1950s , many of the
observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and
ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has
risen (IPCC, 2014).
Sea level rise is a major result of global warming due to climate change (Church et
al., 2008), as a result of melting of ice sheets, way of changes to atmospheric
pressure, expansion of oceans and seas as they warm and glaciers (Werner &
Simmons, 2009). The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) has determined
that a 1.5 meter sea rise in Bangladesh coast, it threatening 17 million people by 15%
of the population living in the coast, and affecting 22,000 km2 of land by 16% of the
coastline (UNEP, 2018).
The impacts of sea-level rise include coastal inundation and erosion, higher waves at
the coast, and sea water intrusion into estuaries, wetlands and aquifers (Church et al.,
15
2008). There are many studies around the world studied this effect, and some of
these studies are mentioned in a later part of this research. This research aims to
study this effect on the aquifer of the Gaza Strip.
2.2.1 Sea level rise historically:
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report that sea level rise during the 2000s B.P did not
exceed a few tens of millimeters, then during the nineteenth century rates have
become even greater, the rate during 1901-1990 was 1.5 (1.3 to 1.7) mm/yr, and
increased by doubling during 1993-2010 was 3.2 (2.8 to 3.6) mm/yr, as shown in
Figure (2.9). It is expected to exceed this rate during the 21st century, until sea level
reaches about 0.88-1.1 m, Figure(2.10) show the expectations of sea level rise during
the twenty-first century.
Figure (2.9): Globally averaged sea level change (Robert scribbler, 2017).
16
Mediterranean Sea Level:
Since the start of the 21st century the Mediterranean sea level has already risen by 20
centimeters and it has risen by between 1 and 1.5 millimeters each year since 1943,
but this does not seem set to continue, because it now seems that the speed at which
it rises is accelerating(PHYS.ORG,2011).
In Palestine, the measurements conducted in the late 20th century in the Haifa city
indicated a rise in the Mediterranean level by 2.8 mm/year (Sarsak, 2011). There are
studies attributed to the Israeli Ministry of Environment to increase the level of sea
by 10 mm / year (Mogheir & Rabah, 2015).
In this research, sea level rise of 20 cm was adopted in 2016 and increased by 5
mm/ year according to the expectations of the IPCC for the rise of the
Mediterranean level during the current century. An addition of 17 cm from
year 2016 will be the end of the modeling period " year 2050". This means that
at year 2050 the sea level will be 37 cm.
2.2.2 Approaches of study sea level rise impact:
Aquifers form a coastline, a natural gradient exists towards the coast and
groundwater discharges into the sea. Because sea water is slightly heavier than fresh
water, it intrudes into aquifers in coastal areas forming a saline wedge below the
Figure (2.10): Sea rise observed and expected during the 21st century
(Vemeer&Rahmsrof, 2009)
17
fresh water (UK groundwater). Therefore, sea water intrusion occurs with
groundwater in coastal aquifers.
Some studies have been conducted to determine the effect of sea level rise on sea
water intrusion on groundwater in coastal aquifers around the world , by two
approaches:
Analytic solution: Mathematical approach calculates the sea water intrusion
into the aquifer through the equations, using the different solution, such as
Strack developed an analytic solution for the regional interface problems in
coastal aquifers based on the single-valued potentials, the Dupuit assumption
and the Ghyben-Herzberg formula for the steady state flow conditions (
Shishaye, 2016; Strack, 1976).
A numerical model: A simulation approach to predict the results of sea-water
intrusion into the aquifer through different modeling programs such as "
Modflow , SEAWAT ". A sharp interface numerical model is developed to
simulate saltwater intrusion in multilayered coastal aquifer systems. The
model takes into account the flow dynamics of salt water and fresh water
assuming a sharp interface between the two liquids (Huyakorn& Park, 1996).
The following are samples of such studies:
Sherif & Singh, 1999 studied two aquifers with different geometric and hydraulics
properties, the Nile Delta aquifer in Egypt and the Madras aquifer in India were
employed to study the effect of sea level rise on sea water intrusion into the aquifers ,
Through a two-dimensional vertical simulation used the 2D-FED model , it is
examined of two different levels of sea level rise, represented the first and second
scenarios by sea level rise at 0.2 meter and 0.5 meters, respectively, as well as under
the condition of excessive pumping represented by the third scenario with the
stability of sea level rise at 0.5 meters and the 0.5 meter drop in free water table due
to excessive pumping in the Nile Delta aquifer and 0.2 meter in the Madras aquifer.
After modeled, the 5000 PPM line and the 1000 PPM line were used to determine the
response of the aquifers to seawater intrusion under the three scenarios.
The results of the analysis indicated the progress of the 5000 PPM line and the 1000
PPM line to the land by 2.0 km and 2.5 km respectively in the Nile Delta aquifer, 36
18
m and 102 m respectively in the Madras aquifer under the conditions of scenario one,
under the conditions of the second scenario, the 5000PPM line offers a distance of
4.5 km, 9 km for the 1000PPM line in the Nile Delta aquifer , 60 meters and 500
meters respectively for the Madras aquifer. While the 5,000 PPM line of the Nile
Delta aquifer under the conditions of the third scenario was 11.5 km , the 1000PPM
line was 9 km .
Finally, the main result is that a sea level rise of 50 cm causes sea water intrusion of
9 km in the Nile Delta aquifer, 0.5 km for the Madras aquifer, due to the difference
in the hydrological parameters of aquifers in Egypt and India, in addition to the
difference in the rate of pumping from the aquifer.
Masterson & Garabedian, 2007 used the system with six separate flow layers
bounded from the bottom by sand, mud and gravel deposits overlooking the Atlantic
Ocean is the subject of this paper "The Cape Cod aquifer". For this purpose,
researchers developed three-dimensional numerical ground water flow model
depends on density for simulate sea water intrusion into the aquifer, Which is
located along the Atlantic coast of the United States, SEAWAT-2000 was used for
this analysis. The simulation based on the empirical relation between salt
concentration and salt water density developed by Baxter and Wallace:
ρ =ρf +E C ………… ( 2.1 )
Where, ρ is density of salt water, (C) is salt concentration, (E) is a dimensionless
constant of about 0.7143 and ρf is the density of fresh water " 1000 kg/m3" .
Two scenarios were simulated in this study: (1) the stream was not tidally influenced
( i.e. the stream stage was held constant for the simulation period.), (2) the stream
stage was increased with time , with sea levels rise by 0.32 meters in 2050.
An implicit finite-difference solution was used pattern solution in the model to solve
the two scenarios with the parameters of the aquifer.
The first location of the vertical interface on the coast is approximately 50 meters
below NGVD 29*, A 200-year simulation of this assumption was carried out, until it
reached a quasi-steady over time. Assumed the resulting interface position to
represent the initial estimate of the hydraulic conditions in the case of equilibrium at
sea level by 0.0 m.
19
The study identified three sites to study the impact of sea level rise on sea water
intrusion into the aquifer. The first and third site is about 300 meters from the shore
and the second is located in the middle of the island.
In the 1929 analysis, which was a sea level rise of 0.0, the results indicated a fresh
water / salt water interface beneath the three sites 26.2 ,43.6 and 16.8 m respectively.
These values are expected to rise by 0.8, 5.8 and 5.5 m, respectively, with sea rising
to 0.32 m under the conditions of the first scenario. The first and second sites
continued to maintain the same values of increase at sea level rise at 0.32, under the
conditions of the second scenario, while the value of the third site decreased by 1.5
meters from the value under the conditions of the first scenario.
Werner & Simmons, 2009 tested two models: (1) flux-controlled systems ( i.e., in
which ground water discharge to the sea is persistent despite changes in sea level),
(2) head-controlled systems, whereby hydrogeological controls maintain the inland
head in the aquifer despite sea-level changes, by using a sharp interface
approximation.
The simplest conceptual model "Ghyben-Herzberg approximation" is the beginning
to solve this problem:
………… (2.2)
Where , Z = Z(x) is the depth of the salt water-fresh water interface below mean sea
level (L), ρf is the fresh water density (ML_3
), ρs is the salt water density (ML_3
), h =
h(x) is the water table elevation above mean sea level (L).
In addition to use the Dupuit-Forchheimer approximations, with three conditions " a
homogeneous, isotropic unconfined coastal aquifer and steady-state conditions".
The equation for calculated ground water discharge to the coast, use Custodio &
Falkland equation:
q(x)=q0-Wx=k(h+αh)
………….. (2.3)
* These values are measured below NGVD 29 (i.e. In North America elevations are
given using either Sea Level Datum of 1929, also called the National Geodetic
Vertical Datum of 1929 (NGVD 29) (Wikipedia, 2018).
20
where q0 is uniform discharge to the sea per unit length of coastline (L2T
-1), W is
uniform net recharge (LT-1
), x is taken from the submarine aquifer outcrop (L), and
K is hydraulic conductivity (LT-1
).
Determines h(0<x<XT) through the integration Custodio equation:
h=√
……………... (2.4)
XT=
-√
………… (2.5)
z0 is increased by an amount equal to the sea level rise . To solve it , an additional
equation is necessary to describe the water table height inland of XT to account for
the base of the aquifer
h=√
(
) ……… (2.6)
The previous equations were resolved with the two conceptions models With the
parameters shown in the following Table (2.1), The figure (2.11) shows these
parameters .
Table (2.1): Parameters of the aquifer used .
W (mm/year) Z0 (m) K (m/d) a Sea-Level Rise (mm)
80 30 10 40 880
The results of the analysis of previous equations indicated that the sea water intrusion
into the aquifer did not exceed 50 meters under the conditions of Flux - Controlled
Figure (2.11) : Parameters of the aquifer used
21
Systems, while hundreds of meters exceed the kilometers under the Head-Controlled
Systems, as shown in Figure (2.12. a & 2.12.b) :
Lo´aiciga et al., 2012 presented a vision of the impact of sea level rise on the sea
water intrusion into groundwater during the 21st century. This paper is based on the
numerical model, specifically the "FEFLO " program to determine the contribution
of sea level rise into groundwater on part of the coast of California.
The mathematical equations of flow and solute transport solved by FEFLOW in this
study: , ………(2.7)
Where, ρ is density of saline water, ρf is density of fresh water, µ is dynamic
viscosity of saline water; µf is dynamic viscosity of fresh water, z is elevation, ϕ is
porosity, S f is specific storage, C is the concentration of salt, h is hydraulic head, t
is the time variable, K f is hydraulic conductivity, g is acceleration of gravity.
Solute transport equation
………… (2.8)
Where, D = hydrodynamic dispersion tensor, q is vector of darcian fluxes of
groundwater.
The numerical simulation of the model used to determine the effect of sea level rise
on seawater intrusion into the aquifer depends on the tested of five different
scenarios in terms of sea level rise expected for 2106 estimated at 1.903, 1.403,
Figure (2.12 ) , a . Flux-Controlled b. Head-Controlled Systems
22
1.903, 1.403 and 0.903 m for the five scenarios, respectively, In addition to
groundwater extraction of 15340, 15340, 9730, 9730 and 15340 (m3/d) for the five
scenarios, respectively.
The 10000 mg/l line and the 1000 mg/l line were used to indicate the response of the
aquifer to sea water intrusion resulting from sea level rise under the conditions of the
five scenarios. analyzed by a three-dimensional, finite-element model in EFFlow.
The results of the analysis showed the conditions of the first scenario, offering a line
of 10,000 mg/l to the shore about 760 meters, while the line of 1000 mg/l is about
1200 meters, as shown in Figure (2.13). The results are very similar between the
second and fifth scenarios with the results of the first scenario, with a slight increase
in the progress of the line of 10,000 and the line of 1000 mg/l ranging from 10 to 15
meters only.
Figure (2.14) shows comparison the results of the 10000 mg/l line to the first, third
and fifth scenarios. The significant decrease in the value of the 10,000 mg/l line in
the third scenario compared to the other two scenarios is due to the lower
groundwater consumption assumed by the third scenario.
Figure (2.13): Results of the analysis under the conditions of the first scenario .
23
Figure (2.15) shows compares the results of the 10000 mg/l line to the second, fourth
and fifth scenarios. The significant decrease in the value of the 10,000 mg/l line in
the four scenario compared to the other two scenarios is due to the lower
groundwater consumption assumed by the four scenario.
Langevin & Zygnerski, (2013) used Southeastern Florida aquifer is which a high
permeability limestone aquifer, In addition to 5.5 million people consume water from
this aquifer, which leads to an acceleration of sea water intrusion due to sea level
Figure (2.14): Comparison between the results of the first, third and fifth scenarios.
Figure (2.15): Compares the results of the second, four and fifth scenarios.
24
Figure (2.16): Sensitivity results
rise, which made this aquifer suitable environment for this study. The study used a
numerical groundwater flow and dispersive solute transport model. During the
SEAWAT program , nine layers were defined with different hydraulic parameter. As
well as the used of four sea level rise rates " ave. annul 2005 level, with linear
increase 24, 48 and 88 cm/century" respectively, with the annual average of"
withdrawals, canal stages, rainfall and artificial recharge, and evapotranspiration
rates " conditions, for 2005 recorded data for this area.
The concentration of TDS Contour was used to determine the impact of sea water
intrusion into aquifer towards land.
Figure (2.16) show the sensitivity of the four sea level rise rates, with previous
hydrological conditions for 2005.
The analysis also showed that drinking water standards will exceed after 70 years ,
this period is reduced to 60, 55 and 48 years with sea level rising to 24 , 48 and 88
cm/century, respectively. On the other hand, intrusion rates are 15, 17, 18, and 21
m/century for the 0, 24, 48, and 88 cm/century sea-level rise rates, respectively.
In the end, the study showed that the main reason behind sea water intrusion into
Southeastern Florida aquifer is the large withdrawal of groundwater, in addition to
the contribution of sea level rise of 25 cm to an increase in intrusion by 1 km to the
land.
25
Mazi et al., 2013 based on the generalized analytical solution of Koussis with IPPC
projections for 2008 sea level rise estimated at 0.59 m and AMAP projections for
2011 sea level rise estimated at 1.6 m, to achieve unconfined aquifers responses to
sea intrusion. It also looked at the turning points (spatial, temporal and managerial ),
which made the state of stability highly responsive to small variables, producing
rapid intrusion of seawater into fresh water, leading to a complete invasion of
aquifers.
It considered here both flux Control ( i.e. outflow of fresh groundwater remains
constant) and head control ( i.e. hydraulic head remains constant ) conditions for the
coastal aquifer, By integrating the flow equation into the aquifer with the
implementation of the boundary conditions for the flux control conditions resulting
in a quadratic equation:
( r + K*ϩ(1+ϩ) ϕ) +2(q0 – K*ϩ(1+ϩ)* sinϕ *Hsea)*LT+K*ϩ(1+ϩ) sea= 0
……………….. (2.9)
and cubic equation when the implementation of the boundary conditions:
(1+ϩ)* ϕ* +(
+sinϕ*(2*h0-(1+ϩ)(2*Hsea –ϩ*L control*sinϕ))* -
(
+
control –(1+ϩ)* sea +2*sinϕ*L control (h0 +Hsea *ϩ*(1+ϩ))*LT +L control
*ϩ(1+ϩ)* sea =0 ………… (2.10)
for the location of the sea intrusion toe Lt .
where ϩ=(ρs-ρf)/ρf , ϕ(L control)=h(L control)+sinϕ L control is the hydraulic head.
Figure (2.17) show one of the results of these analyzes, it showed the change of the
interface toe position LT as function of the original coastline depth H sea for different
scenarios of sea-level rise.
26
Sefelnasr & Sherif, 2014 studied the Nile Delta aquifer by numerical simulation
using FEFLOW to determine the effect of sea water rise on sea water intrusion into
aquifer, considered groundwater consumption and decreasing as a result, In addition
to other considerations such as annual recharge of aquifer from rain would not
change under the conditions of climate change, the water levels in the Nile River is
fixed .
The GIS program was used to define 28 layers of aquifer and determine the hydraulic
conductivity, as well as calculated the recharge of the aquifer layers by a
precipitation of 150 mm/year along with the length of the Mediterranean coast, It is
rapidly declining southwards to touch 26mm/year in Cairo.
Six scenarios were assumed for this model, an increase in sea level rise of 0.50 m in
Scenarios I, II and III with groundwater consumption of "50%, 100%, 200%"
respectively of current consumption estimated at 2.3 billion (m3/year). While the rise
in sea level was 1 m in the other three scenarios, with the same consumption rate for
the first three scenarios respectively.
This study is used to clarify the results of the analysis on the map by Colored the
saltwater area 35000 PPM in red, it show the increase of this area under the six
scenarios, as shown in Figure (2.18).
Figure (2.17): The change of the interface toe position LT for different scenarios of
sea-level rise.
27
The increase in saline areas and volumes is evident in contrast to the decrease in
freshwater area and volume under the six scenarios. The increase/decrease in areas
are estimated at 15% to 32% under the condition of sea level rise of 0.5-1.0 m,
respectively. While in volume it is around 15% when maintaining current
consumption.
Gejam et al., 2016 made a study of the western aquifer of Libya on the
Mediterranean Sea. The results of this study indicated that the rise of the level of the
Mediterranean "5.9 mm / year" led to an increase of sea water intrusion by 94 meters
due to rise in the level of the sea.
In Palestine, (Sarsak, 2011) referred to the scenario of the impact of sea level rise on
sea water intrusion in the northern Gaza Strip, through a numerical simulation using
Figures (2.18): Results for the six scenarios in order.
28
the Seawat program, at sea level rise of 5.9 mm/year, with no consideration to
climate change through recharge or pumping rates.
The results of simulated this scenario during the simulation period from 2005 to 2035
indicated that seawater intrusion into the land is 4,300 meters in 2035. The results
were compared between the sea level rise scenario and the other scenarios. An
increase in seawater intrusion into the aquifer was observed by 100 meters.
Figure (2.19) show the sea water intrusion into the aquifer of north Gaza during the
period 2005 to 2035.
2.2.3 Concluding Remarks
The results of previous studies revealed a contribution to the rise of the sea level led
to increase the sea water intrusion into the aquifer. This contribution was tens of
meters in some coastal aquifers to thousands of meters in some other aquifers
according to the different hydrological characteristics, in addition to the difference in
pumping rate.
In this research used a numerical approaches is used to evaluate the impact of
sea level rise on sea water intrusion into the Gaza strip aquifer through Seawat
model. It is noteworthy that the current research has studied all Gaza Strip aquifer,
where all the seven layers of the aquifer is used in the approach to give more reliable
results. In additional chloride concentration was used as an indicator of sea water
intrusion into the aquifer.
Figure (2.19): Results of the scenario analysis on the north Gaza aquifer
TD
S
29
Chapter three
Study Area : Gaza Strip
30
Chapter 3: Study Area: Gaza Strip
3.1 Geography:
Gaza Strip is an elongated zone located at southeastern coast of Palestine with
coordination of Latitude N 31° 26' 25" and Longitude E 34° 23' 34". The area is
bounded by Egypt in the south, the Mediterranean in the west and the 1948 cease-fire
line in the north and east. The length of the Gaza strip is approximately 40 km long
and the width varies from 8 km in the north to 14 km in the south. Gaza Strip is
divided geographically into five governorates: Northern, Gaza, Middle, Khan Yunes,
and Rafah (Matar, 2018), as shown in Figure (3.1).
Figure (3.1): Location map of Gaza Strip, Palestine (Wikipedia, 2018).
3.2 Geology:
The geological formation of the region dates back to the3rd
and 4th
geological
periods. It includes both the Kurkar and the reddish rocks within the Pleistocene age.
In the third geological age, mud and clay sediments were formed at a depth of 1200
meters near the shore and limestone and cretaceous deposits at a depth of 2000 m,
31
Whereas in the fourth geological age, the continental kurkar and the marine kurkar
are formed (Albana, 2011). Within the Gaza Strip, the thickness of the Kurkar Group
increases from east to west, and ranges from about 70 m near the Gaza border to
approximately 200 m near the coast (Ajjur, 2012).
3.3 Topography:
The surface of Gaza Strip is generally characterized by a flat surface, with a series of
hills extending the eastern part of the Gaza Strip, in addition to three valleys are
Wadi Gaza , Wadi Salqa and Wadi Beit Hanoun (Baalousha, 2005).
The surface level varies between sea level in some areas and 110 meters above
sea level in the east, as shown in Figure (3.2).
Figure (3.2): Topography of Gaza Strip (Zomlot, 2015)
Table (A-1) in Appendix (I) contains details of the different levels of the Gaza Strip
per meter.
32
3.4 Aquifer:
The aquifer located under the Gaza Strip is the only source of fresh water in the Gaza
Strip. It is nourished by rainfall on the Gaza Strip and parts of the Negev and
Hebron Mountains, as shown in Figure (3.3).
Figure (3.3): Flow into Gaza Strip aquifer (UNEP, 2002).
The aquifer is composed of sand and sandstone, interspersed with layers of clay and
clay sand, a four-tiered aquifer is formed near the coast, layer " A" is unconfined,
and three layers " B1", " B2 "and "C" layers are confined as they approach the coast,
as shown in Figure (3.4).
The hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer ranges from 20 m/d to 75 m/d, Figure
(3.5) shows the different hydraulic conductivity values.
33
Figure (3.5) shows the different hydraulic conductivity values.
Figure (3.4): Typical hydrogeological cross section of Gaza Strip,(Ajjur, 2012).
34
The amount of water recharging the aquifer in the Gaza Strip is estimated at 80 Mm3
annually, compared with 130 Mm3 consumed from the aquifer (Gaza studies, 2017),
as shown in Figure (3.6). The depth of water in the aquifer ranges from a few
meters near the coast to 120 meters east, with the water level falling in most areas
of the Gaza Strip under the sea level (Ajjur, 2012).
Figure (3.6): Water balance of Gaza Strip (Sirhan&Koch, 2014).
3.5 Soil:
Table(3.1) and Figure (3.7) summarizes the main types of soil in the Gaza
Strip and their characteristics.
Table (3.1) The main types of soils available in the Gaza Strip.
Soil type Site Formation Water retention CaCO3
Sandy soil Sand dunes quartz low 5-8 %
Loess soil Between Gaza
City and Gaza
Valley
Clay and sand Medium 8-12%
Soil of riverine Low areas -- -- 15-20%
35
Silty clay soil The north
eastern part
Clay and silt Good --
Figure (3.7): Soil map of Gaza Strip
3.6 Rainfall:
The winter season " December to March " is the rainy season in the Gaza Strip.
The amount of rainfall on the Gaza Strip varies during the winter season between
an average of 450 mm per year in the Beit Lahia city of northern and 250 mm per
year in Rafah to the south of the Gaza Strip (PWA, 2012).
Figure (3.8) shows the average annual rainfall with the Gaza Strip through 12
monitoring stations distributed to the different governorates .
Table (A-2) in Appendix (I) indicated the coordinates of the monitoring stations.
36
Figure (3.8): Average normal rainfall in the Gaza Strip(PWA, 2012).
3.7 Population:
The Gaza Strip is one of the highest densely populated areas in the all world. The
population of the Gaza Strip was estimated at around two million by the mid of 2017
, with average density of about 5480 inhabitants/km2 (PCBS, 2017).
37
The governorate of Gaza for the highest population in all the governorates of the
Gaza Strip about 650000 people. Table (3.2) presents the population in Gaza
Governorates.
Table (3.2): Population in Gaza Governorates in 2016 (PCBS, 2017).
Governorate Population
North Governorate 377,126
Gaza Governorate 645,204
Alwasta Governorate 273,381
Khan Younis Governorate 351,934
Rafah Governorate 233,490
Total of Gaza Strip Governorates 1,881,135
3.8 Ground Water Level:
The water level in the Gaza Strip continues to decline as a result of increased
consumption of groundwater, which in 2014 was estimated at 90 l/c/d, In addition
to the scarcity of rainfall, which is considered the only supply for the aquifer.
According to the latest tests conducted in September of 2017 by the Palestinian
Water Authority (PWA), the groundwater level in the Gaza Strip has negative values
in general, except for a few areas.
The level of groundwater in the Beit Hanoun city is between 0.071 m and -1.3m, as
well as the Beit Lahia city is between 0.881 m and -3.2 m, which are the best values
among the governorates of the Gaza Strip. Average values were recorded between
-0.3 m and -6 m in Gaza and Middle governorates. While the worst values in the
Rafah city between -10 to -18 meters, as well as parts of the south of the Khan
Younis city between - 9 m to -11 m, as shown in Figure (3.9).
Table (A-3) in Appendix (I) showed the level of groundwater in the Gaza Strip in
details.
38
3.9 Water Quality:
Water quality is one of the challenges faced by water resource planners to provide
healthy water that meets population and agricultural needs. WHO sets standards for
this and local authorities.
Figure (3.9): Water Level the Gaza Strip in 2016 (PWA, 2016).
39
3.9.1 Chloride Concentration:
The standards of the World Health Organization (WHO) and the standards of the
Palestinian Water Authority (PWA) indicated that the concentration of chloride
in drinking water should not exceed 250 mg/l.
The chloride concentration test for municipal wells for the 2017 year conducted by
the (PWA) showed that more than 90% of wells have exceeded these standards, In
some wells chloride concentration exceeded 4000 mg/l, as shown in Figure (3.10). At
the governorates level, all the wells in the middle governorate exceed these
standards, while Gaza governorate has five wells and Rafah governorate has only
two wells that meet these standards.
The increase in chloride concentration is attributed to sea water intrusion into the
aquifers due to excessive consumption and other reasons.
3.9.2 Nitrate concentration:
The results of the test conducted by the Water Authority in 2017 showed that only
20 wells in the Gaza Strip agree with the WHO standards for nitrate concentrations
of 50 mg/l, while some wells exceeded this concentration tenfold, as shown in Figure
(3.10). In Gaza Governorate, only three out of 70 well-tested approved these
standards, while only one well in both the Rafah and Khan Younis governorates
succeeded in this test. The main sources on are domestic sewage effluent and
fertilizers. In contrast to salinity, groundwater flowing from east has relatively low
nitrate levels.
40
Figure (3.10): Chloride Concentration in the Gaza Strip in 2016 (PWA, 2016).
41
Figure (3.11): Nitrate Concentration in the Gaza Strip (PWA, 2016).
42
Chapter Four
Research Methodology
43
Chapter 4: Research Methodology
4.1 The Methodology:
This chapter presented the methodology used to determine the impact of sea level
rise on sea water intrusion into the Coastal Aquifer in the Gaza Strip. This was done
through a general understanding of the subject of sea level rise historically and
locally through the competent authorities in this field in general and specifically the
IPCC, In addition the general understanding of the subject of sea water intrusion into
the coastal aquifer through previous relevant research was also considered. This is
followed by determining the study area for research and study of the aquifer and its
characteristics by collected historical information about the study area such as
climate, soil and topography of the region and hydrological data was collected from
relevant institutions such as Palestinian Water Authority (PWA). Data collected for
the production of aquifer recharge maps were used using the GIS program and were
used to model the effect of sea level rise on sea water intrusion into the coastal
aquifer of the Gaza Strip through the Modflow program and Seawat model, as shown
in Figure (4.1).
44
Figure ( 4.1): Research Methodology
Result
45
4.2 Preparing data:
Understanding the climate history of the study area, determining the parameters of
the inputs, through the following:
1- Collected data from relevant institutions such as the Palestinian Water Authority
(PWA) and Coastal Municipalities Water Utility (CMWU), books and scientific
papers such as wells, groundwater level, sea level change and maps.
2- Reviewed the research and previous studies and the research of the Masters that
serve the subject of the research.
3- Data analyzed and construction of soil maps built up area, rainfall and
topography.
4- Prepared the recharge map to be used as a input to the Modflow program.
4.3 Recharge Model:
The GIS program is produced by an environmental organization called Esri, that is
used to manage and analyze spatial data. The GIS version 10.3 program was used to
study the recharge values of the Gaza aquifer in this research and to produced
recharge maps for the years 2010 to 2016 through the following steps:
1- The GIS program was set up, and the coordinates settings were adjusted.
2- Entered the different data:
- Soil map:
The soil map and soil types in the Gaza Strip were referred to during the previous
chapter "Study Area". Table (4.1) shows the filtration rate for the different soils
available in the Gaza Strip.
Table (4.1) shows the filtration rate for the different soils available in the Gaza Strip.
Classification Infiltration rate ( mm/hr.)
Loess soil 404.5
Dark brown / reddish brown 963.42
Sandy loess soil 258.66
Loessial sandy soil 71.48
Sandy loess soil over loess 337.6
Sandy regosol 1079
46
- Built up area:
Figure (4.2) shows built up area in the Gaza strip.
Figure (4.2): Built up area in Gaza strip .
- Rainfall: Rainfall data recorded in monitoring stations for 2010, 2013 and 2016,
then spatial analysis used to work interpolate using Spline to convert coordinates to
polygon. Rain maps for the years 2010, 2013, 2016 were discussed in the results
chapter.
3- Converted the data from Polygon to Raster data, the GIS program converted this
data from Polygon to Raster so that the program can deal with it, and worked
mathematical calculations.
4- Calculations of the production of the recharge map of the aquifer.
5- Produced of recharge maps for the aquifer for 2010 , 2013 and 2016. Recharge
maps for the years 2010,2013,2016 were discussed in the results chapter.
47
4.4 Modflow Model:
The Modflow program is the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference flow
model, It was developed at the beginning of the 1980s to simulate the flow of
groundwater through the aquifer.
The Visual Modflow version 4.6 program was used to study the hydrological state of
the coastal aquifer in the Gaza Strip, and used its results as input to the Seawat model
to find the impact of climate change on the sea water intrusion into the aquifer
through the three parts program:
The first section is inputs, which defined the aquifer and its parameters such as
conductivity, layers, recharge, boundary conditions, and water consumption.
Through the following steps:
1- Prepared the Modflow to simulate by defining the aquifer and its parameters.
2-The Grid was set up "Rows and Columns" and defined layers with conductivity.
3-Entered the observed head wells and pumping wells.
4-Entered recharge maps "2016 year" prepared in the GIS program.
The second section is Run, the model of the hydrological state of coastal aquifers in
the Gaza Strip until 2050 was carried out through the following equations:
The governing partial differential equation for a confined aquifer used in Modflow,
as Equation(4.1) (Psilovikos, 2006):
{Kxx
} +
{Kyy
} +
{Kzz
} + W = Ss
……… (4.1)
Where :
- Kxx , Kyy and Kzz are the values of hydraulic conductivity ( L/T) ,
- h is the potentiometric head (L) ,
-W is a volumetric flux per unit volume representing sources and/or sinks of water,
where negative values are extractions, and positive values are injections (T−1
) ,
- Ss is the specific storage of the porous material (L−1
) and
- t is time (T) .
48
The finite difference form of the partial differential in a discretized aquifer domain
(represented using rows, columns and layers) as Equation(4.2) (Psilovikos, 2006):
CRi,j-1/2,k * { hm I,j-1,k – h
mi,j,k } + CRi,j+1/2,k * { h
mi,j+1,k – h
mi,j,k } + CCi, -
1/2,k,j *{ hm I -1,k,j – h
mi,j,k } + CC +1/2,k,j * { h
mi +1,k,j – h
mi,j,k } + CVi,j,k-1/2 *
{ hm I,j,k-1 – h
mi,j,k } + CVi,j,k+1/2 * { h
mi,j,k+1 – h
mi,j,k } +Pi,j,k * h
mi,j,k + Qi,j,k
= SSi,j,k * { ∆ri ∆rj ∆rk } * ({ hm
i,j,k- hm-1
i,j,k}/{tm - t
m-1}) ………. (4.2)
Where :
- hm
i,j,k is the hydraulic head at cell i,j,k at time step m ,
- CV, CR and CC are the hydraulic conductance's, or branch conductance's between
node i,j,k and a neighboring node ,
- P i,j,k is the sum of coefficients of head from source and sink terms ,
- Q i,j,k is the sum of constants from source and sink terms, where Q I,j,k < 0.0 is flow
out of the groundwater system (such as pumping) and Qi,j,k > 0.0 is flow in (such as
injection),
- SSi,j,k is the specific storage ,
- ∆ri ∆rj ∆rk are the dimensions of cell i,j,k, which, when multiplied, represent the
volume of the cell; and
- tm
is the time at time step m .
The third section is Output, used to show the calibration head of the model during the
period from 2010 to 2016 to verify the efficiency of the model results.
4.5 Seawat Model:
Seawat is a generic MODFLOW/MT3DMS-based computer program designed to
simulate three-dimensional variable-density groundwater flow coupled with multi-
species solute and heat transport (usgs.gov), In addition, the program was used to
simulate the migration of saline water into the aquifer and the intrusion of seawater
into the coastal aquifer.
Seawat model used to evaluate the sea water intrusion into the Gaza aquifer through
the following steps:
49
1- Entered the observed concentration wells and initial concentration.
2 - Imported data from the Modflow program .
3- Run simulations in Seawat program to 2050 with future scenarios .
Seawat is based on the concept of freshwater head, or equivalent freshwater head, in
a saline groundwater environment (sarsak, 2011).
The governing flow and transport equations in Seawat are as in Equations(4.3)
(sarsak, 2011):
{ ρ * K f (
+
) } = ρ * S f
+ ϴ
+ δ
– ρs*q s ……(4.3)
where:
Xi : ith
orthogonal coordinate
K f : equivalent freshwater hydraulic conductivity (L/T)
S f : equivalent freshwater specific storage (1/L)
H f : equivalent freshwater head (L)
T : time (T)
θ : effective porosity (dimensionless)
ρ : density of freshwater [M/L3]
ρs : density of sources and sinks [M/L3]
q s : volumetric flow rate of sources and sinks per unit volume of aquifer (1/T)
The transport Equation (4.4) (sarsak, 2011) is:
=
{ ϴ Di
} -
{ ϴvic
K ) + qs Cs
K + ∑ Rn ..………(4.4)
where:
Ck : dissolved concentration of species k (M/L
3).
Ck
s : concentration of the source or sink for species k (M/L3)
Di : the dispersion coefficient (L2/T)
qs : the volumetric flux of a source or sink (T-1
)
Rn : the chemical reaction term (ML3/ T)
50
4- Showed the calibration of concentration the model during the period from 2010 to
2016 to verify the efficiency of the model results.
5- Showed the results of simulating " effect of sea level rise on sea water intrusion
into the Gaza aquifer " .
4.6 Prediction of future scenarios:
This research examined the effect of sea level rise on sea water intrusion into the
aquifer, two scenarios were imposed during the simulation period until 2050.
The first scenario over a period of 34 years extends from 2016 to 2050, under sea
level rise at 0.0 m and without any change in pumping from the aquifer. The
population growth in the Gaza Strip is kept constant and it assumed that new
resources of water will be supplied beyond the aquifer which will sought to reduce
the deterioration of the aquifer. An examples of these water resources are the
establishment of desalination plants and the use of treated water for agriculture.
The second scenario over a period of 34 years extends from 2016 to 2050, under sea
level rise at 0.37 m and without any change in pumping from the aquifer.
51
Chapter Five
Results and Discussions
52
Chapter 5: Results and Discussions
The research outputs are divided into two parts. The first part is to estimate recharge
amounts for the aquifer for the years 2010, 2013 and 2016 through GIS v 10.3
program. The second part uses the outputs of the first part with other variables to
evaluate the effect of sea level rise on the seawater intrusion into the aquifer in the
Gaza Strip through the use of Modflow v 4.6 program and Seawat model.
5.1 Recharge Model:
Figures (5.1), (5.2) and (5.3) show the results of the recharge model using GIS
software for years 2010, 2013 and 2016, respectively. The recharge of aquifer was
approximately 40% of the rainfall.
Figure (5.1) show, a decrease in rainfall between 30% to 52% over the average
annual rainfall, resulting in a decrease in the amount of water reaching the aquifer.
Figure (5.1.a): Rainfall in 2010 Figure (5.1.b): Recharge in 2010
Figure (5.2) shows an increase in rainfall between 32% to 53% over the average
annual rainfall, resulting in an increase in the amount of water reaching the aquifer.
Areas with low recharge rates indicate either the existence of clay layers in this area
or built-up areas.
53
Figure (5.2.a): Rainfall in 2013 Figure (5.2.b): Recharge in 2013
Figure (5.3) shows an increase in precipitation during 2016, approximately 100%
higher than the average rainfall in some areas. For example, the Rafah city recorded
472 mm / year, and most areas exceeded 500 mm / year.
Figure (5.3.a): Rainfall in 2016 Figure (5.3.b): Recharge in 2016
54
5.2 Groundwater Flow and Seawat Modeling:
After computing the values of recharge using GIS Model, these values were used as
input to the groundwater flow model Visual Modflow 4.6 software and Seawat
model. The outputs of the Seawat model will provide a good indicator of the impact
of climate change "sea level rise" on the sea water intrusion into the coastal aquifer
of the Gaza Strip.
5.2.1 Model setting up:
The groundwater model domain in the Gaza Strip is shown in Figure (5.4). The
model domain is grid of 80 column by 150 row .
Figure (5.4): The grid model
55
The model boundaries (west, East, North and South) can be described as
follows :
- West : Constant head boundary during the year, increased linearly from 0.20 m in
2016 to 0.37 m in 2050, about 5 mm / year according to the IPCC projections for the
rise of the Mediterranean sea level during the current century.
- East : Variable head boundary ,The head values in 2016 between from -5 to5 m.
- North : No-flow boundary.
- South: No-flow boundary.
Figure (5.5) shows boundary conditions during 2016 with the beginning of the
model.
Figure (5.5): The boundaries head in 2016.
56
5.2.2 Pumping wells:
The number of wells in the Gaza Strip is estimated as 1928 wells" has full data" in
2016, including 234 municipal wells, while the rest are wells for agricultural use.
The average pumping rate is 120 MCM, and distributed in the Gaza Strip as shown
in Figure(5.6).
Figure (5.6): Distribution of pumping wells in Gaza strip
57
5.2.3 Head Observation wells:
The number of head observation wells in the model are 61 in 2016, as shown in
Figure (5.7).
From Figure (5.7) it can be seen that the head observation wells are well distributed
in Gaza strip area .
Figure (5.7): Distribution of head observation wells in Gaza strip.
58
5.2.4 Concentration Observation wells:
The number of concentration observation wells in the model are 102 in 2016. These
wells were selected from the pumping wells where chloride concentration is
monitored better and this data is more confident. These wells were carefully chosen
to provide the best distribution in the Gaza Strip area, as shown in Figure (5.8).
Figure (5.8): Distribution of concentration observation wells in Gaza strip.
From Figure (5.8) it can be seen that the concentration observation wells are well
distributed in Gaza strip area , with the exception of the eastern area of Khan Younis
and Rafah, due to the lack of observation wells in the area.
59
5.2.5 Layers and Properties:
Base on the geological description of Gaza strip aquifer shown in chapter three "
study area ". The coastal aquifer in the Gaza strip is composed of seven layers,
including three layers of clay, which have been introduced into the Modflow
program. Figures (5.9.a) and (5.9.b) show two sections of these layers.
Figure (5.9.a): A cross-section of the layers in North of Gaza strip (section A-A
in Figure (5.8)) .
Figure (5.9.b) : A cross-section of the layers in South of Gaza strip (section B-B
in Figure(5.8)) .
Based on Figure (3.5) in the geological description of Gaza strip aquifer shown in
chapter three " study area ". divided the Gaza Strip to five Zones depending on the
governorates, additional to clay layer is zone one, zone two is north of Gaza Strip
governorate, zone three is Gaza governorate, zone four is Middle governorate, zone
five is Khanyunis governorate and zone six is Rafah governorate, as shown in Figure
(5.10). The hydraulics conductivity values for each zone were calculated by average
of the hydraulics conductivity values of each zone, as shown in Table (5.1).
60
Table (5.1): The hydraulic conductivity in Gaza strip.
Zone *K x (m/d)
*K y (m/d)
*K z (m/d)
1 0.2+ 0.2 0.02
2 38.6 38.6 3.86
3 61.2 61.2 6.12
4 58.75 58.75 5.875
5 53.4 53.4 5.34
6 45 45 4.5
- * Conductivity of hydraulic direction x " K x"
- * Conductivity of hydraulic direction y " K y"
- * Conductivity of hydraulic direction z " K z "
+ (Aish, 2010)
Figure (5.10): The hydraulic conductivity zones in the model
61
Table (5.2): shown the other properties for layers (Aish, 2010).
Effective porosity Total porosity Specific storage Specific yield
Clay layer 0.15 0.45 3.1E-6 m-1
0.1
Other layers 0.25 0.30 2.2E-6 m-1
0.24
5.2.6 Boundary Conditions for Seawat:
The boundary conditions for transport model are classified as follows :
- Western boundary : Constant concentration " CL " is 20,000 mg/l
- Eastern boundary: is variable concentration boundary
- Recharge concentration was neglected and considered 0 mg/l since the main scope
of the work concentrates on concentration from seawater .
5.2.7 Models calibration:
The calibration of the model is the criteria that demonstrate accuracy in the flow
model as well as the seawat model. The calibration process is performed by
comparing the flow and concentration calculated with observed data.
The models calibrated from 1 January 2010 as initial value to 31 December 2016.
The calibration results presented to verify model confidence for 2013 and 2016.
Figure (5.11.a) shows that the correlation coefficient for flow model calibration in
2013 is 0.905, and Figure (5.11.b) shows that the correlation coefficient is 0.913 for
seawat model calibration.
62
Figure (5.11.a): Flow model calibration in 2013
Figure (5.11.b) :Seawat model calibration in 2013
63
Figure (5.12.a) shows that the correlation coefficient for flow model calibration
in 2013 is 0.911, and Figure (5.12.b) shows that the correlation coefficient is
0.901 for seawat model calibration.
Figure (5.12.a): Flow model calibration in 2016
64
Figure (5.12.b): Seawat model calibration in 2016 .
Figures of calibration and Figures that showed the distribution of observed wells in
the Gaza Strip show accuracy in the results of flow model and the seawat model for
the prediction period.
5.3 Prediction of sea level rise Impacts:
After calibration of the model using observation wells as shown in the previous
section, the model is used for the future prediction phase to determine sea water
intrusion dimension into aquifers due to climate change is "sea level rise".
5.3.1 First Scenario: without the effect sea level rise.
The 2016 data were used as initial values to run the model for 34 years with 0.0 m
mean sea level. The results were extracted for every five years for each period, from
2022, 2027, 2032, 2037, 2042, 2047 to 2050.
Figures (5.13.a) and (5.13.b) show the location of the seawater intrusion into the
aquifers, specifically on the seventh layer from 2022 to 2050.
65
Figure (5.13.a): Seawater intrusion in layer seven from 2022 to 2032
Figures (5.13.a) and (5.13.b) show the remarkable progress of seawater intrusion into
the aquifer, where the 18000 mg / l line of chloride concentration reaches a distance
of approximately 2500 meters from the shore (in land) by the beginning of 2030 and
3800 meters by 2050, while the 12,000 mg / l line is expected to reach to 4300
meters at the end of the modeling period (2050) in Rafah city.
The area between the northern Gaza governorate and Gaza governorate and Rafah
city are the most affected by seawater intrusion along the Gaza Strip.
66
Figure (5.13.b) : Seawater intrusion in layer seven from 2037 to 2050
Figures (5.14) show to a cross section of aquifer in the area between the northern
Gaza governorate and Gaza governorate, showing a distance of 18000 mg / L line of
chloride concentration from shore for the years 2022 to 2050.
67
Figure (5.14): A cross section show the seawater intrusion in all layers from
2022 to 2050 in North of Gaza strip ( section A-A).
68
5.3.2 Second Scenario: with the effect of sea level rise.
Under the same conditions as the first scenario and 2016 values but with sea level
rise of 0.37 cm. Figures (5.16.a) and (5.16.b) show the modeling results for the
second scenario for the years 2022 to 2050.
Figures (5.15.a) and (5.15.b) show a slight increase in the results of sea water
intrusion into aquifer compared with the results of the first scenario.
Figure (5.15.a): Seawater intrusion in layer seven from 2022 to 2032
69
Figure (5.15.b): Seawater intrusion in layer seven by modflow from 2037 to 2050
Figures (5.16) show a cross section of aquifer in the area between the northern Gaza
governorate and Gaza governorate, showing a distance of 18000 mg/L line of
chloride concentration from shore (in land) for the years 2022 to 2050.
70
Figure (5.16): A cross section show the seawater intrusion in all layers from 2022 to
2050 in North of Gaza strip (section X-X).
71
5.4 Comparison between the two scenarios:
Tables (5.3) and (5.4) show a comparison between the two previous scenarios
through the location of the 18000 mg / L chloride line from the shore line at the area
of the northern Gaza governorate with Gaza governorate (Jabalia) and in the south
area (Rafah) respectively.
Table (5.3): Comparison between the two scenarios for the location of 18000 mg/l in
Jabalia.
year First Scenario(m) Second Scenario(m) Difference(m)
2022 841 848 7
2027 1095 1116 21
2032 1342 1356 14
2037 1625 1660 35
2042 1850 1865 15
2047 2048 2083 35
2050 2224 2245 21
Table (5.4): Comparison between the two scenarios for the location of 18000mg/l in
Rafah .
year First Scenario(m) Second Scenario(m) Difference(m)
2022 1447 1461 14
2027 2188 2241 53
2032 2788 2859 71
2037 3264 3282 18
2042 3564 3593 29
2047 3755 3798 43
2050 3811 3834 23
The results of the comparison show that the contribution of sea level rise by
increasing sea water intrusion into the aquifer by tens of meters (approximately 30 to
70 meters).
72
5.5 Comparison of current research with other researchers:
The research results are consistent with many similar research results that study
coastal aquifers with the Mediterranean Sea using analytical approach, including:
Sarsak, 2011 made a model for simulating the sea water intrusion into the aquifer of
northern Gaza until 2035 by studying the effect of sea level rise in one of the
scenarios. The results of this scenario showed an increase in sea-water intrusion into
the aquifer by 100 meters due to the effect of sea level rise.
Gejam et al., 2016 made a study of the western aquifer of Libya on the
Mediterranean Sea. The results of this study indicated that the rise of the level of the
Mediterranean "59 mm / year" led to an increase of sea water intrusion by 94 meters
due to rise in the level of the sea.
While the results of the current research showed different results with the study of
the aquifers of the Nile Delta carried out by Abd-Elhamid et al., 2016.
This study simulated the effect of the rise of the Mediterranean sea on the sea water
intrusion into the aquifer in the Nile Delta. The results indicated that the rise of the
Mediterranean level by 100 cm will lead to additional interference of sea water to the
aquifer in the Nile Delta by 10 km. This result is somehow exaggerated the effect of
sea level rise into a sea water intrusion, In addition the result of this research is not
compatible with other research such as Gejam et al., 2016, Sarsak, 2011and Werner
& Simmons, 2009.
The results of this study on coastal aquifer in the Gaza Strip and the results of similar
studies in coastal aquifers on the Mediterranean Sea indicated that the contribution of
sea level rise in increasing sea water intrusion into coastal aquifers is a minor
contribution.
73
Chapter Six
Conclusions and
Recommendations
74
Chapter 6: Conclusions and Recommendations 6.1 Conclusion: 1- The recharge of the aquifer in the Gaza Strip is estimated at 40% of the total
annual rainfall.
2- The problem of salinization of water in the aquifer is generally clear in the Gaza
Strip, especially in the Rafah governorate.
3- The rise of the sea level is one of the factors that help increase the sea water
intrusion into the aquifer in Gaza strip.
4- Sea level rise is not the most effective factor in the sea water intrusion into the
aquifer in Gaza Strip. A rise of 0.37 m in sea level resulted in an increase of sea
water intrusion to the aquifer by 70 meters compared to the non-rise of sea level.
5- The results showed that the greatest impact of sea water intrusion into the aquifer
in Gaza Strip in the Rafah Governorate.
6- More than half of the aquifer in Gaza Strip contains chloride concentration of
more than 2000 mg/l by 2037 and the rate of chloride concentration increases as the
years progress.
7- The majority of the areas in the Gaza Strip contain a concentration of chlorine that
is higher than the chlorine specified drinking water standard which is 250 mg/l.
6.2 Recommendations: 1- Provide an integrated database to monitor the chloride concentration and water
level in the Gaza Strip. Researchers can easily access them without disturbance,
increase their reliability by adding new wells and remove some wells to reduce the
redundancy of information.
2- Provide wells to monitor chloride concentration and water level in the eastern
border area of Khanyunis where no wells are available.
3- Further studies are needed to update built up area map in the Gaza Strip to
improve the recharge outputs of the aquifer.
75
4- Further studies are needed to clarify the impact of other climate change factors on
the aquifer in the Gaza Strip.
5- Further studies are needed to update the hydraulic conductivity values in detail for
each Gaza Strip.
6- Wells which are located in the area has chloride concentration increased more than
2000mg/l must stop pumping to reduce the deterioration in these area and prevent the
expansion of the salinity phenomenon.
7- The use of new sources of water to reduce the dependence on groundwater to stop
the deterioration of aquifer such as desalination, wastewater treatment for
agricultural uses and the importation of water from external sources.
76
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81
Appendix I
82
Appendix I
Table (A-1) levels surface of the Gaza Strip
X Y Elev. X Y Elev. X Y Elev.
75968.4 82086.8 0 76716.2 80609.6 30.48 78290.7 84239.9 0
76428 82491 0 77605.5 83563.4 0 77716.6 84476.8 -4.68
75850.5 82648.4 -3.54 77087.3 83716.3 -4.37 78504.8 83752 7.26
75454 82322.2 -4.54 77755.7 83010.9 7.01 77179.6 85095.6 -8.23
75593.1 81756.8 0 76586.8 84046.8 -6.95 78681.5 83248.3 18.88
76095.2 81565.5 6.47 77873.1 82468.2 15.94 78733.9 82716.2 30.91
76463.1 81965 5.19 75877.6 84259 -9 76391.4 85606.8 -11.31
76803.3 82820.9 0 77828.1 81915.6 25.11 79057.3 82343 44.75
76295 83019.1 -3.28 77574.3 81356.5 30.83 78722.7 81760.5 46.64
76942.5 82258.5 5.759 75013.1 84310.7 -11.27 75451.5 85915.7 -14.21
75774.3 83175.3 -6.18 75506.3 80290.1 23.08 78493 81174.2 46.97
75190.9 83010.8 -7 77311 80795.3 30.94 78243 80605 35.84
75062.2 81940.6 -7.56 75908.7 79853.4 30.51 75020.4 79355.2 25.98
75217.9 81426.9 0 76494.1 80028.5 33.2 77995.9 80036.2 31.97
75737.2 81220.6 8.05 77073.6 80219.8 32.15 75091.6 78780.8 30.72
76311.8 80999.5 20.81 77948.1 83901.7 0 75579.1 78586.7 33.44
76533.4 81462.9 13.88 77230 84263.3 -5.33 76054.4 78931.6 31.53
76856.3 81732.1 13.07 78137.5 83370.9 7.53 76631 79134 33.33
77262.9 83225.1 0 78267.4 82822.4 18.17 77194.1 79277.6 26.77
76695.5 83396.8 -3.94 76509.2 84745 -8.74 77766.5 79468.1 26.97
77338.7 82678.7 5.33 78395 82207.9 33.17 78710.4 84654.3 0
76111.4 83627.3 -6.59 75629 85006 -11.59 78033.4 84834.3 -5.04
77449.8 82210.2 12.95 78166.3 81572 39.62 78794.3 84155.8 0
77281.8 81751.6 18.76 77910.3 80988 35.6 79097.8 83724.1 15.95
75408.2 83683.4 -8.61 75412.8 79736.2 26.97 77173.9 85949.8 -10.21
75314.9 80863.3 10.71 77658.1 80415 32.95 77770.1 85403.5 -7.34
75813.8 80743.8 19.79 75607.6 79234.7 29.46 79201.4 83048.1 34.61
76956.8 81194.5 24.88 76240.6 79473.2 32.77 76478.1 86695.9 -14.22
76140.1 80402.9 29.23 76842.6 79658.5 29.73 79547.7 82652.1 49.93
79234 81826.8 51.1 77420.3 79841.6 29.46 79637.8 82152 55.84
79061 81317.2 48.58 79260.9 84408.3 6.08 78868.8 79761 41.71
75300 86965.7 -17.4 79654.9 84030.2 18.19 78650.7 79205 36.59
78814 80763.5 43.15 79543.3 83509.9 29.62 75232.1 77497 36.58
78563 80202.3 37.67 78037.6 85933.7 -8.09 75717.7 77379 39.99
78325 79633.6 32.35 77575.7 86655.4 -10.84 76121.2 77805 38.61
75163 78145.4 33.54 79801.1 83106.2 46.34 76533.4 78202 37.02
75632 77962 35.99 76328.1 87904.1 -17.16 76996.7 78084 39.05
76034 78352.4 35.39 77356.6 87596.7 -13.98 77380.5 78441 33.74
76443 78669.5 33.06 80084.9 82596.8 57.16 77892.8 78479 34.83
76964 78691.7 33.99 79657.9 81501.7 56.58 78449.2 78680 38.74
77555 78919.9 26.6 80121.1 81968.3 60.87 79472.7 85406 0
78104 79065 30.28 79373.7 80892.8 51.43 78789.3 85636 -4.63
83
X Y Elev. X Y Elev. X Y Elev.
79053 84992.5 0 75092.2 88162.9 -20.03 79549.2 84908 5.41
78429 85237.4 -4.49 79113.2 80323.6 45.96 79873.9 84572 14.11
80218 84182.6 27.39 75506 76295.2 49.36 81777.3 84292.8 50.48
80029 83647.3 37.89 76033.4 76323.5 53.93 80246.9 86926.9 -4.01
78551 86387.7 -8.01 76272.2 76795.4 49.74 80529.3 87319 -4.38
78256 87188.7 -10.45 76725.2 77063.6 49.97 81877.2 82922.1 59.12
80306 83202.8 51.06 77255.5 77064.7 53.73 81831.3 83412.2 58.04
76071 89112.4 -19.99 77598.4 77495.2 52.27 79470.3 92406.9 -19.82
77487 88895.9 -17.04 78100.6 77415.3 68.8 80732.2 92316.7 -17.09
78290 88117.1 -12.75 78457.2 77782.4 67.32 80963.2 91449.3 -14.22
80578 82317.2 60.83 78963 77705.9 66.8 80493 90581 -12.78
80562 82815.5 57.03 80157.9 86083.4 0 80950.6 89946.1 -10.11
79891 80927.2 56.86 80310.1 85613.8 7.36 80734 89252.4 -8.75
80199 81404 60.58 80752.3 85307.4 19.38 80585.5 88238.6 -6.68
80638 81775.8 61.39 81016.1 84804.9 35.19 80919.4 88609.8 -6.77
79634 80385.8 52.5 81054.9 83751.9 51.43 80871.6 87646.2 -4.05
79394 79831.8 50.63 81269.9 84289.6 47.2 81948.7 82357.1 59.09
79175 79283.5 48.63 79864.1 86550.8 -4.5 82046.8 81818.6 59.85
78983 78728.9 46.2 79619.5 87041.8 -7.09 80672 79494.9 62.54
75316 76868.3 41.47 79808.3 87516.8 -7.71 80897.9 79965.5 62.26
75817 76828.9 46.34 81365 83188.8 57.26 81152.7 80435.5 61.55
76215 77273 44.2 78337.5 91308.8 -20 81646.5 80445.3 61.56
76613 77647.9 42.69 79670.3 91121.8 -16 81900.1 80889.3 61.15
77098 77549.5 46.84 79765.5 89819.3 -13.4 82174.9 81312.8 60.95
77490 77987.6 42.62 79927.1 88818.3 -10.41 80565.8 78967.4 63.53
77956 77898.9 53.74 80122.4 87994 -8.3 80273.4 78116.3 62.48
78300 78222.4 49.61 81472.1 82548.1 58.37 80640.3 78426.8 63.37
78774 78227 50.61 81547.5 81947.5 59.63 79550 76957.7 61.49
79815 85745.2 0 80393 79921.5 60.34 79962.9 77241.9 60.04
79203 85886.1 -3.53 80648.3 80410.5 59.64 80392.7 77514.2 60.16
80060 85171.4 10.41 80918.4 80894.9 59.37 75163.5 75114 53.04
80444 84747.7 25.18 81401.8 80933.5 60.74 75697.1 75169.6 58.44
80754 84269 38.94 81681.4 81399.4 59.97 76220.3 75319.9 61.47
80542 83732.3 45.12 80192.9 79377.6 62.31 76724.9 75501.1 61.69
79085 86790.5 -7.44 80086 78768.4 63.78 76855.3 76041.7 61.15
79441 86237.1 -5.2 79801.6 78336.8 60.81 77335.2 76170 60.79
79014 87505.4 -9.41 79459.6 77526.2 62.39 77821.5 76270.4 61.74
80834 83253.4 53.94 79863.8 77812.3 59.75 77923.5 76670.1 61.66
77204 90210.6 -20 75255.9 75706.4 51.74 78298.2 76461.6 63.97
78548 90050 -17.04 75828 75778.7 57.19 78693.7 76775.6 69.61
78842 89011.9 -13.45 76357.2 75896.6 60.32 79138 76636.3 62.59
79286 88207.4 -10.49 76546.9 76446.8 55.85 80843.1 86760 0
81072. 82117.1 60.63 77013.4 76579.4 56.84 81012.8 86264.5 5.74
81010. 82707.7 58.18 77490.1 76632.7 58.85 81476.3 86162.2 12.96
84
X Y Elev. X Y Elev. X Y Elev.
80137 80400.6 57.38 77755.9 77053 61.19 81831.3 85801.7 28.01
80398 80874.3 59.39 78245.9 76952.3 70.9 81959.1 85244.8 46.38
80668 81288.3 60.10 78600.8 77295.6 73.9 82025.7 84753.2 54.44
81148 81485.1 59.66 79076.9 77156.3 69.36 82061.1 83858.8 52.79
79897 79873.3 56.35 80500.5 86421.7 0 82294.7 84389.2 52.31
79701 79310.6 57.74 80691.3 85894.1 6.25 81185.7 87098.2 0
79499 78780.5 56.2 81208.9 85753.6 15.25 82327.6 83339.1 57.45
79322 78165.4 53.87 81392.1 85293.1 31.53 82356.9 82732.2 59.21
81554.7 84788.5 47.68 80526.6 93430.9 -19.67
81790 93302 -16.84 78729 76216 62.23 78098.9 75500 60.06
82028 92280 -13.84 79202.1 76192.9 59.58 78589.4 75668 59.38
81882 91395 -11.59 81352.1 86625.8 5.8 79064.4 75762 58.52
81393 90717 -11.25 81846.6 86424.8 15.33 82198.5 86793 14.76
81855 90140 -8.13 82298.6 86215.9 31.43 82681.2 86634 24.47
81654 89459 -6.93 82386.3 85636.5 44.22 82797.7 86074 41.17
81663 88780 -3.7 82501.9 85016.6 53.53 82908.3 85514 48.55
81250 87970 -3.57 82547.7 83928.6 50.99 83068.6 84995 48.33
81596 88279 -2.75 82778.5 84489.3 51.53 83053.5 84032 43.6
81504 87421 0 81701.8 86951.9 6.67 83297.1 84509 43.79
82453 82179 60.38 82843.7 83539.4 50.55 83173.5 83206 53.6
82549 81667 61.15 82772.7 83012.5 58.17 83354.9 83604 44.8
80983 79144 62.55 82864.6 82470.8 61.02 83270.3 82748 60.28
81174 79541 63.02 81659.5 94529.1 -19.79 83394.6 82202 63.52
81398 79993 62.31 82708.5 94251.4 -16.57 82639 95478 -19.89
81893 79997.1 61.41 83025.1 93178 -13.8 83649.9 95195 -16.58
82146 80423.8 60.83 83118.5 92230.3 -10.93 83642.7 94123 -14.63
82392 80836 60.93 82695 91502.8 -9.94 84285.4 93551 -11.09
82614 81215.2 60.95 82267.3 90785.1 -8.46 83885 92691 -10.05
81064 78696.2 61.4 82639.3 90210.5 -5.27 83981.5 91847 -7.08
80782 77833 60.33 82334.8 89747 -5.56 83454.4 91544 -8.02
81164 78179.4 60.62 82559.1 89300.4 -2.74 83354.1 91048 -7.11
79590 76429.7 59.38 82237 88963.5 -2.64 82974.7 90711 -6.04
80007 76678.3 59.67 82211.9 88141 0 83307.3 90083 -2.22
80447 76929.9 60.21 81893.7 87817.6 0 82963.7 89678 -3
80927 77192.4 59.63 82034.2 87314.4 5.84 83238.1 89183 0
75059 74043.4 57.95 82992.4 81913.6 62.61 82848.3 88787 0
75534. 74456 58.55 83037.1 81381.7 61.12 82530.1 88464 0
76126 74669.3 60.4 81461.8 79050.8 61.64 82380.4 87664 4.5
76634 74925.5 60.65 81647.3 79562 62.18 82716.8 88008 3.92
77120 75161.3 59.96 82153.5 79570.8 60.74 82538.8 87169 12.14
77215 75676.7 60.59 82397.6 79991.4 60.35 83562 81557 62.35
77707 75824.3 61.56 82657.4 80415.7 60.44 83392.8 80969 60.2
78214 75987.4 61.6 82898.8 80863.8 60.37 81949.2 78779 60.11
76325 73059.9 68.32 81560.7 78497.6 60.27 81919.3 79205 60.66
85
X Y Elev. X Y Elev. X Y Elev.
76772 73612 65.42 81276.7 77642.8 59.66 82404.5 79080 60.04
77170 74043.6 62.16 81684.8 77975.1 59.92 82634.9 79553 60.01
77494 74392.8 60.57 79541.9 75900.9 58.11 82903 79984 59.99
77928 74484.8 59.55 79982.8 76121.1 59 83165.5 80448 60
78011 75003.5 58.75 80424.4 76345.2 59.56 82062.1 78264 59.99
78486 75149.8 58.32 80860.5 76563.8 59.74 81760.6 77523 59.7
78968 75269.2 58.61 81306.1 76708.6 59.78 82228.5 77697 59.85
83039 87041.3 20.05 81487.1 77158.3 59.49 79460 75383 58.77
83175 86504.5 31.01 75639.1 73586.9 62.91 79908.7 75576 59.28
83310 85968.7 40.61 76154.8 73934.7 62.24 80381.7 75794 60.05
83449 85456.5 44.4 76635.2 74292.6 60.77 80832.5 75973 61.32
83606 84964.9 42.65 77073.6 74620.1 60.02 81272.1 76180 62.25
83561 84042.3 40.01 77537.4 74862.4 59.62 81733.3 76357 62.34
83804 84490.1 39.11 77608.3 75348 60.42 81779.2 76781 60.33
83626 83119.4 56.5 83774.2 82595.8 62.51 82039.5 77141 59.92
83851 83559.8 47.42 83896.2 82011.8 64.02 75597 72743 66.7
93374 79781 107.4 98078.7 111121.7 -12.16 91874.6 86302 93.71
94278 80959.3 102.4 97697.6 108624.4 -9.64 92399.6 86861 86.95
93629 81708.8 98.98 98015.3 109248.6 -10.02 92241.1 87463 80.19
94012 82837 96.12 97970.9 110065.7 -11.26 92846.7 87376 77.13
93911 83654.8 99.06 97214.1 105913.7 -3.77 93470.2 87682 67.86
108055 71898.4 139.3 97438.1 106357.3 -2.51 93718.7 88274 63.23
107085 74369.5 125.8 97720.3 106748.1 -3.78 93374.4 79781 107.43
106199 77042 110.9 98022.2 107168.8 -20.47 94279.9 80959 102.38
103459 77920.9 96.29 98319.3 107558.7 -8.93 93628.9 81708 98.98
101672 79419.5 80.29 98122.2 108073.7 -9.3 94012.3 82837 96.12
101010 81402.2 79.79 96726.2 103720.5 12.95 93911.7 83654 99.06
98642 80778.1 94.54 96820.4 104601.8 0 108055 71898 139.34
96614 80276.4 109.6 97055.7 104116.3 14.47 107085 74369 125.84
94851 79951.8 112.7 97124.9 104974 0 106199 77042 110.87
93099 84746.9 106.7 97408.1 105372.8 0 103459 77921 96.29
92980 85533.1 102.4 96547.4 102886.3 27.44 101672 79419 80.29
92764 86268.4 93.89 96894.1 103177.4 29.47 101010 81402 79.79
94203 84491.3 96.87 96006.5 100743.2 47.43 98641.9 80778 94.54
86
Table ( A-2) coordinates of the monitoring rainfall stations in the Gaza stripe
X_ Coord. Y_ Coord. Station Name
106420.00 105740.00 Beit-Hanoun
99750.00 108280.00 Beit-Lahia
99850.00 105100.00 Jabalia
97474.787 105428.24 Shati
97140.00 103300.00 Gaza-City
100500.00 101700.00 Tuffah
95380.00 98000.00 Gaza-South
91950.00 94080.00 Nusseirat
88550.00 91600.00 D-Balah
84240.00 83880.00 Khanyunis
83700.00 76350.00 Khuzaa
79060.00 75940.00 Rafah
Table (A-3) Ground Water Levels of the Gaza Strip in Sep. 2016 and average
PWA Number X Y Sep.2016 Average
Piezo. 2A 98330.20 105799.52 -1.09 -1.09
Piezo. 2B 98330.31 105799.51 -0.15 -0.15
Piezo. 2C 98330.28 105799.39 -0.40 -0.40
Piezo. 2D 98329.04 105798.25 -2.35 -2.35
Piezo. 2E 98329.09 105798.14 -2.37 -2.37
Piezo. 2F 98328.97 105798.09 -0.32 -0.32
Piezo. 3B 93621.20 95543.56 -1.16 -1.16
Piezo. 7 84109.12 77899.21 1.22 1.22
Piezo. 8A 95579.30 98225.61 -2.10 -2.10
Piezo. 22 A 86304.18 89542.85 -3.65 -3.65
Piezo. 22 B 86304.05 89542.79 -3.47 -3.47
Piezo. 23 88781.37 94162.56 0.58 0.58
Piezo. 24 99269.10 107327.30 -0.40 -0.40
Piezo. 26A 100549.15 108580.10 0.07 0.07
Piezo. 27 100870.10 107857.73 -1.80 -1.80
CAMP - 1A 103593.63 107122.60 -0.08 -0.08
CAMP - 1B 103596.30 107123.63 -0.01 -0.01
CAMP - 2 104577.63 105088.15 -0.93 -0.93
CAMP - 3B 98493.17 104400.13 -3.49 -3.49
CAMP - 4 97737.69 96579.02 -0.41 -0.41
CAMP - 7A 77355.65 79846.45 -8.84 -8.84
CAMP - 7B 77353.32 79846.22 -10.96 -10.96
CAMP - 8 86858.81 79606.83 9.71 9.71
CAMP - 9 81041.06 75604.56 -1.74 -1.74
CAMP - 13 92593.99 97657.87 -1.31 -1.31
CAMP - 14 93107.16 91999.06 -1.90 -1.90
A/31 102773.03 106051.71 -3.29 -3.29
A/47 103101.61 107074.25 -1.46 -1.46
87
PWA Number X Y Sep.2016 Average
A/53 102191.45 106917.00 -2.86 -2.86
A/64 103330.19 108096.81 -0.38 -0.38
A/107 101217.80 107481.63 -2.72 -2.72
C/30 106603.78 104470.95 1.07 1.07
C/48 106501.02 105842.88 0.88 0.88
C/126 104656.34 106017.71 -1.03 -1.03
E/12 101589.48 104297.70 -5.32 -5.32
E/32 99053.10 106224.66 -1.21 -1.21
E/45 99823.26 105405.00 -3.44 -3.44
E/116 100647.40 103487.42 -6.15 -6.15
F/21 94056.24 95964.45 -1.61 -1.61
F/43 94145.38 97593.92 -2.63 -2.63
F/68B 94998.25 96627.40 -2.10 -2.10
F/121 96218.37 95434.80 -0.25 -0.25
G/10 91189.24 96148.81 -1.30 -1.30
G/24B 92376.56 98908.88 -0.31 -0.31
G/26 91922.37 94938.84 -2.31 -2.31
H/5 89613.29 92965.11 -3.67 -3.67
H/11 90660.32 92785.02 -3.39 -3.39
J/52 87167.12 91271.46 -2.88 -2.88
J/68 85988.38 90847.67 -2.76 -2.76
J/103 88733.24 92930.49 -2.47 -2.47
L/18 85277.44 85821.60 -3.67 -3.67
L/47 82610.31 82589.34 -10.71 -10.71
L/66 82716.30 79914.50 -9.46 -9.46
L/88 81404.30 86783.97 0.08 0.08
L/94 83065.87 88152.41 -0.79 -0.79
M/10 85967.49 84740.36 -5.29 -5.29
N/7 89262.95 83502.88 0.18 0.18
N/12 88701.25 80356.73 12.57 12.57
P/34 78686.10 79538.76 -15.21 -15.21
P/48A 80066.99 79696.06 -18.11 -18.11
P/99 78681.04 78385.32 -11.18 -11.18
Q/2 103785.41 104376.19 -2.75 -2.75
Q/20 103759.84 102767.27 -1.56 -1.56
Q/31 103838.98 103994.35 -2.99 -2.99
R/38 102027.16 101782.87 -2.08 -2.08
R/84 99419.28 98987.91 7.15 7.15
R/108 illegal 93373.59 100136.32 -0.59 -0.59
R/133 96773.31 101064.29 -2.51 -2.51
R/210 94911.14 101914.04 -0.08 -0.08
R/216 101523.17 101059.39 -1.39 -1.39
R-I-69 96681.20 100107.03 -2.36 -2.36
S/11 94970.19 93542.62 0.09 0.09
S/15 94278.40 94366.74 -0.63 -0.63
88
PWA Number X Y Sep.2016 Average
S/28 93307.07 92855.66 -2.03 -2.03
S/50 91341.80 90667.80 -4.26 -4.26
T/1 89693.01 89349.75 -3.72 -3.72
T/6 88321.99 88116.69 -2.91 -2.91
T/15 87279.12 87444.48 -4.14 -4.14
T/22 88337.98 85643.53 -2.72 -2.72
New Deir 87960.00 91830.00 -3.32 -3.32
New Gaza 97156.00 104153.00 -5.16 -5.16
Table (A-4) Concentration " CL " of the Gaza Strip in. 2016.
ID X Y CL
1 104667.1 104337.1 400
2 105349.3 105095.3 480
3 106732.9 104859.9 328
4 106475.1 104891.2 285
5 105080 106350 880
6 105351.3 106857.4 333
7 103275 105385 155
8 103497.4 105126.1 180
9 102458.9 107032.7 240
10 101036.5 106827.4 1000
11 101715.9 107217.9 57
12 101076.8 105813.5 290
13 101286 105111.8 179
14 102066.9 104589.4 180
15 103273.9 104898.9 210
16 103034 105064.1 185
17 102530 106252.3 220
18 101733 107653 102
19 104780 106150.8 140
20 106151 104183 190
21 106802 104378 340
22 101379.3 105027.6 170
23 101080 105220 185
24 101686.4 106681.9 108
25 99977.47 105276.3 3500
26 101060 103930 300
27 102492 105453 72
28 101855 104838.2 160
29 102450 105136 130
30 101838 104844 400
31 103013.3 105334.3 515
32 101277.9 104582.7 238
89
ID X Y CL
33 102530 103915 240
34 103028 104016 260
35 102365 103029 350
36 101795 103409 250
37 101715.9 107217.9 111
38 98727.63 104412.2 5277
39 98867.35 104590 3358
40 99054.74 103668 668
41 99049.89 103698.8 609
42 99330.04 105052.3 4957
43 100155.9 104669.8 1740
44 100513.6 105179.3 1350
45 100834.7 105466 626
46 101439.9 105833.2 127
47 99165.91 103952.4 3763
48 101458 106192.9 100
49 101739.3 106462.4 98
50 100778.7 102527.2 576
51 100758.5 102581.4 633
52 100774.7 102456 890
53 100819.9 102495.9 844
54 100513.6 105179.3 275
55 100417.2 101298.9 956
56 100661.2 101542.9 865
57 101433.9 101970 682
58 99686.73 99202.55 1230
59 100004.2 100005.2 998
60 96542.39 102055.5 633
61 96237 101529.7 640
62 96237 101529.7 457
63 96713.48 101394.7 443
64 97563.92 103022.3 802
65 98327.24 103771.4 1033
66 97075.52 101805.6 511
67 97602.38 101510.2 504
68 98262.82 101598.4 533
69 97447.96 99138.65 1090
70 99462.72 103828.9 462
71 95042.2 98980.16 1072
72 93154.18 98410.77 1044
73 93300 97680 895
74 93639.7 98098.27 618
75 93879.91 98181.1 497
76 91705 95272 1264
90
ID X Y CL
77 91949 95875 1243
78 91311 94176 953
79 89463.17 92752.19 1583
80 89518.32 92949.76 1497
81 90643 93761 1200
82 91984.93 91891.39 874
83 93201.03 93513.57 1217
84 92675.57 91699.97 908
85 91838 92890 1009
86 91874.43 90945.88 611
87 88965.42 92490 2783
88 91200.34 90460.38 761
89 85916.64 89758.36 2915
90 86265.3 89777.16 3701
91 88156.61 90025.77 4943
92 88470 90410 1521
93 85536.4 89143 2662
94 84374.1 83181.5 889
95 82677.7 85082.6 613
96 82186.59 83276.65 2484
97 81831.6 82689.6 2347
98 83299.06 85383.59 822
99 83062.91 83461.37 1000
100 82848.9 83935.06 710
101 82869.57 83756.14 747
102 83038.24 84202.84 860
103 83116 85443 1383
104 81352.5 82504.8 306
105 82189.69 83279.19 1555
106 81695.85 83059.37 1435
107 81452 82711 1155
108 82424 81035 942
109 82550 81590 972
110 83496.91 81788.75 1039
111 81085.77 85734.44 209
112 82887.85 86149.89 284
113 82679.74 85914.45 284
114 83461.08 81975.28 729
115 84612.5 87291.4 239
116 85019.1 87403 217
117 84798.6 86922.3 809
118 84550 82700 1110
119 77926.76 78904.24 791
120 77598.02 79413.99 530
91
ID X Y CL
121 78772.7 79764.8 722
122 78320 80350 509
123 79368.62 79856.37 839
124 78600 80100 482
125 77736.61 80521.12 151
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