Scotland’s Changing Hydro Resource – 2008 to 2012 and Beyond
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Small hydro from idea to operation
Scotland’s Changing Hydro Resource – 2008 to 2012 and Beyond
Nick Forrest
Small hydro from idea to operation
Topics Recent history of hydro National resource – what is it now? What the sites look like How fast will hydro grow? What are the critical factors?
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Cumulative Installed Hydro
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Developers Uncertain markets Money looking for investments Many new developers Land grab How much is left?
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SNH and SEPA Increasing number of
applicants Cumulative effects
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Scottish Government Pollution & climate change Energy security Rural income
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National Surveys
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Hydrobot Remote hydro prediction, including:
Flow duration statistics Layout and equipment optimisation Grid connection Costs and revenues NPV indicating best option Applicable across regions
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1020
30
50
40
T1T2
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Scottish Hydropower
Resource Study
657MW of untapped potential
>1,000 schemes, 20kW to 20MW
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Employment Study The Employment Potential of
Scotland’s Hydro Resource Refined costings Included micro hydro (<100kW) Feed-In Tariffs (FITs)
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Revised Resource 1.2 GW potential, 7,000 schemes 169 MW across 4,400 micro-hydro sites
0100200300400500600
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Pot
entia
l pow
er (M
W)
Num
ber o
f pot
entia
l sch
emes
Power band
Number
Potential power (MW)
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SNH Study New Feed-In Tariffs Simple payback of 10 years or less Variable design flow (1 to 1.3) Survey and mitigation costs Full set of CAR licenses entered 706MW across 6,312 schemes
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babyHydro 2012 (I’m talking about this one) FITs as of December 2012 997MW across 9,152 schemes
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Technical Screening 1:50,000 maps Maps of distribution grid River status Existing schemes
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Technical ScreeningCode Description
T1 Forestry CommissionT2 Access or gorgeT3 Other obstacleT4 Grid issues
T5Interferes with existing scheme
T6 ErrorT7 Low gradientT8 Good
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Screened Resource Total resource = 997MW 33% good = 329MW 165MW on Forestry Commission land 33% good = 55MW Total without barriers = 384MW
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Two Waves?20
00
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
1,400.00
1,450.00
1,500.00
1,550.00
1,600.00
1,650.00
1,700.00
1,750.00
1,800.00
Cumulative Installed Capacity
Inst
alle
d Ca
paci
ty (M
W)
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But How Fast? Do We Care? Market size Targets Replacing other sources in time Incentives to stimulate market Degression
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Straight-Line Trends Rate of commissioning Rate of consenting
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Cumulative Installed Hydro
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Excluding Fasnakyle & Glendoe
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Commissioning and Consenting Trends
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Commissioning and Consenting Trends
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Employment Study Human resources for hydro Realistic growth – Normal curve Growth in workforce defines upper limit in
hydro deployment
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Employment Study
Graph by Jamie Wallace, Highland Eco-Design
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Full-
time
Equi
vale
nt J
obs
GlobalUKScotland-wide (Baseline)Scotland-wide (10%)Scotland-wide (12%)Local
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Cumulative Normal Curves
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Cumulative Normal Curves
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Cumulative Normal Curves
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Cumulative Normal Curves
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Degression
10%
20%
5%
2.5%
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Influences Sites Grid Revenue support Funding Rents Environment
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Conclusion 997MW total capacity, mostly in 100-
500kW band 384MW has no known barrier We predict around 112MW deployment
between now and 2020 5% degression probably for >10 years 10% degression likely on occasion
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Nick ForrestbabyHydro Ltd
M: 07784 066 445E: nick@hydrobot.co.uk
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Influences Sites Grid Revenue support Funding Rents Environment
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