Sarwant Singh on Electric Vehicles: Market Opportunities and New Business Models for Industry Stakeholders
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Electric Vehicles: Market Opportunities
and New Business Models for Industry
Stakeholders
Presentation to
20th Sept 2010
2
36
0 D
eg
ree
Vis
ion
of
the G
lob
al E
lectr
ic
Veh
icle
In
du
str
y
Global EV Market Size and Forecasts – PVs, LCVs
and 2 Wheelers
Agenda
New Personal Mobility Business Models
Electric Vehicles Market Overview, Technology
Roadmap and Infrastructure Trends
Business Model Analysis of Key Industry
Stakeholders
Opportunities in Electric Vehicles Market, Q&A
3
Three Main Trends in Urbanization Will Impact Mobility Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors
MEGACITY
City With A Minimum
Population Of 10
Million
EXAMPLE: Greater
London
MEGA REGIONS
Megacities combining
with suburbs to form
mega regions.
(Population over 15
Million)
EXAMPLE: “Jo-
Toria” (Johanessburg/
Pretoria and Gautang
region)
MEGA CORRIDORS
Transport corridors
connecting two or more
major cities or mega
regions
EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-
Shenzhen-Guangzhou in
China (Population 120
Million)
Source: Frost & Sullivan
4 M5A9-18
By 2020, We Will See Development of Mega City Corridors
and Networked, Integrated and Branded Cities
1950s Urbanisation
2000s Suburb-anisation
2015s Network City
2020s : Branded Cities
•! Most offices moved to the first belt suburbs except non cost-sensitive activities: city centres becoming shopping areas (small scale deliveries) for expensive goods and living areas for “double income, no kids” households.
•! cars needed to go to the working areas/malls outside first and second belt.
•! Industry offices moved out to the first belt area as also medium income families while manufacturing facilities and low-medium income families relocated in the second and third belt areas with logistics centres created on 2nd belt periphery.
•! ‘Green wave’ families living outside cities in outer suburban area. Hypermarkets and malls mostly created inside the third belt low cost area (large scales deliveries).
•! cars needed to go from outer suburban areas to join the inter-modal public transport and working areas in third and second belt.
Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road
Creation of the historic centre and districts
Third suburban area and cities along the highways created, ring road overblown by the urban sprawl
Ring Road Motorway, Living Areas growing
outside the ring road as seen in
London
Source: Frost & Sullivan
5
New Mobility Business Model - Carsharing: Over 4.5 mn members expected in
US and Canada by 2016
87.8%
12.2%
80.4%
19.6%
453,700 10,194
2009
2016 Potential
More than $ 3.3 billion in revenues
More than 4.4 million members
More than 72,000 vehicles in carsharing
6
Case Study: Mu by Peugeot – Integrated Mobility On-demand Solutions
Under One Roof
by
Peugeot Weekend Services
Travel Services
Driving Behaviour and Rewards
Personal Transport Solutions
Vehicle Accessories
Service Units
Hiring Units
Market for Carsharing: Mu by Peugeot – Overview and Business Model (Europe), 2009
Create an account to use
this scheme
Pay subscription charges
to get charging units
Working Concept
Hire services or products
based on balance in
charging units
Earn mobility (reward)
points that can be used for
select services
Source: Frost & Sullivan
!! Partnering with travel agencies,
driving schools amongst others.
!! Booking services on train,
airplane travel and hotels.
!! Discounts, prizes and member
advantages.
Decrease spending
by using the same
infrastructure and staff
Generate income
from the stock of
vehicles sitting at dealerships
!! Micro-mobility solutions such
as bicycles and scooters.
!! Rental cars and vans.
!! Vehicle accessories such as
roof-boxes, cycle racks and
child seats.
Brest
Rennes
Nantes
Lyon
Paris
Current Points of Sale
Brest: 2
Nantes: 7 Rennes: 4
Lyon: 4 Paris: 5
Expected to be expanded in key EU cities in 2010-2011
7 M5B6-18
66%
23%
8%
70%
19%
1%
2%
63%
20%
2% 1%
1.3 Million
66%
20%
3%
1%
2009 2015
7,260
6%
25%
54%
15%
68%
18% 10%
2%
EV Market Breakdown By Region - CEVs to Account for 70% Share In Europe; NA
to Witness More PHEVs/eREVs with a 20% Share
3%
8% 14%
10%
EV Breakdown By Region – Sales Estimates (World), 2015
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009 Source: Frost & Sullivan
2%
Un
it S
hip
me
nts
8 M5B6-18
Over 47 OEMs are Expected to Compete in the Global EV Market With
Over 75 models by 2015
Battery Recycling and Second Life Market: EV Sales Breakdown by Vehicle Segments (APAC, Western Europe and North America),
2015
Market Size in Major Regions
(APAC, Western Europe and North America) 1.16 Mn
Total Number of EV OEMS 47
Total Number of EV Models ~79
(93%)
TRADITIONAL OEMS – (Sales Unit)
(7%)
NON – TRADITIONAL – (Sales Unit)
iMEV BMW Mini Nissan Leaf GM Volt Toyota IQ
Subaru - R1e/G4e VW UP Volvo C30 Tata Indica Smart -
THINK City ZENN Pininfarina Blue
ZAP
Heuiiez WILL
BYD F6DM CODA OPTIMAL ENERGY
688,255 75,810
115,121
230,701
5,000
20,875
17,380
6,858
CEV eREV PHEV NEV/QC HPEV Unclassified
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is
2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan
9
Chinese OEMs to launch 35 EV Models in Next 3 to 5 Years
Electric Vehicle Market: Actual and Expected Electric Vehicle Models (China), 2009-2015
A00 EV
SAIC
A00
A0
A
B
MPV
SUV
F3DM
BYD
620EV
Lifan
Beni EV
Chana
QQ3 EV
Chery
Tiggo EV
Chery
M1 EV
Chery
E6
BYD
premacy EV
FAW
i-car
Dongfeng
Yueyue EV
JAC M1e
FAW
320EV
Lifan
Haima EV
FAW
F6DM
BYD
Shuaike EV
Dongfeng
F0 EV
BYD
Mpe
FAW
Oula
Great Wall
EK-2
Geely
Yuexiang EV
Chana
Zhonghua EV
Brilliance
550 plug-in
SAIC
Zhixiang plug-in
Chana
Heyue plug-in
JAC
Saibao EV
Hafei
Odin EV
Dongfeng
Ruiqi EV
Dongfeng
2008 EV
Zhongtai
Midi EV
BAW
BE 701
BAW
EK-1
Geely
2009 2011 2010 2012
Sum 1 9 10 12
13
2
7
2
3
5
Source : Frost & Sullivan
10
Electric 2 Wheelers – eBicycle, eScooter and eMotor Bike Market
Worth Over 25M Units Worldwide
Hub motor driven
purely by throttle
Regenerative braking
functionality in high end
models
•! 125 Volt NiMH battery
•! Charging time – 2 hours
•! Acceleration (0 – 80 kph) – 6.8s
•! Max speed – 100 kph
•! Range – 110 km @ 40 kph
Vectrix Electric Scooter
Lead Acid / NiMH Battery
XM 3000 Electric Moped Sanyo Enacle
•! 60 Volt lead acid battery
•! Charging time – 7 hours
•! Max speed – 70 kph
•! Range – 80 km
Motor driven by torque
sensor on pedal
•! Regenerative Braking*
•! Range – 35 km / 50 km*
•! Over 20 million electric 2 wheelers sold globally in 2008
•! Modest growth expected globally with 22 million sales forecast by 2010
11
Electric Vehicle Industry EcoSystem Provides Opportunity to Enter
New Fields
Utilities Integrators (e.g. Better Place)
OEMs
System/Battery
Manufacturers Government
Charging
Station
Manufacturers
12
Source: Frost & Sullivan
•! Charge Payment
Program /
Subscription based services
•! Manufacturing &
Sales
•! Load Management
•! Extended E-
mobility solution
e.g. vehicle sharing
•! Energy
Subscription
Packages
Po
ssib
le R
even
ue
Str
eam
s
Charging Stations
Batteries E-Mobility Vehicles Electricity Telematics &
other value added
services
Serv
ices
Example of Products/Services Portfolio That Can be Offered by an
Integrator in the E-Mobility Market
•! Installation &
Maintenance
•! Revenues from
value added
services
•! Premium revenues
via Renewable
Energy Vs Non Renewable Energy
•! Premium revenues
via Peak Power Vs
Off Peak Charging
•! Level 1 Vs Level 2
Vs Level 3 Charging
•! Battery Leasing
Model
•! Refurbishing
•! Recycling
•! Battery 2nd life
•! Battery
Swapping
•! Extend to other
E-mobility
solutions
•! Battery
Integration
•! Offering After-
Sales services –
•! Market green
solutions such as
Solar panels to E-Mobility client base
•! investment in
renewable energy
such as wind farms and gain carbon
credits
•! Recycling and
Refurbishing
•! Premium revenues
via Peak Power Vs
Off Peak Charging
•! Premium revenues
via Renewable
Energy Vs Non Renewable Energy
•! Subscription
based Energy
service Scheme
•! Data Aggregator
( working with other
partners)
•! Battery
management
services
•! Advanced booking
of charging stations
•! V2V and V2G
Communication
•! Added value
service (POIs,
Diagnostics, etc)
13
Source Of Revenue Generation Calculated over 5 years (based on certain assumptions)
1. Revenues from Selling Electricity !300Mn - !400Mn
2. Revenues from selling Charging Stations !500Mn - !700Mn
3. Revenues from Installation & Maintenance of Charging Stations !300Mn - !500Mn
4. Revenues from Other Sources (Solar panels and other retailing, Advertising, Load Balancing, Garage Referrals, Data Downloads etc) ! 450Mn - ! 650Mn
Utilities Business Model – Revenue Generating Opportunities Are Mainly Outside
Selling Energy
Capital Investment (1st yr)
Fixed & Operating Cost
TOTAL: !1.5 bn - !2 bn
!640Mn - !650Mn
!48Mn - !50Mn
Includes:
!New Energy Capacity
Command and control centre
!Network Recurring Cost
!Charging Station Purchase Cost
!Installation and Maintenance cost
!Logistics, Admin, Selling, general , rental, Marketing and Labour Cost
14
Mobility
Car Sharing –
Choosing,
Reservation
and locating
cars,
Car/Van
Pooling – car
and van
pooling apps,
Multimodal
Transport –
apps for real
time bus/
transit
Car Sharing
Vehicle
Access
Entertainment
Internet
Radio
e.g. Pandora,
RadioTime
IP TV – live tv
using
internet,
eg. .SPB TV,
Social
Networking –
e.g. Twitter,
Facebook,
News –
Online radio
news, RSS
feeds reader
Vehicle Access/ Security
Vehicle
Locator
Vehicle
Access –
converting
phone in to
smart key
Remote Car
Starter/
Security
Remote
Vehicle Horn/
Light Flash –
Security App,
Telematics
Emergency
Assistance –
App
Real Time
Video Traffic
Feeds
Diagnostics –
TPMS,
service/oil
notifications,
Integrated
Telematics –
eCall/bCall/
Tolling
Electric Vehicles
State of
Charge
Monitoring
App
Charging
Station
Locator
Interior Pre-
Condition
App
EV Billing
Navigation
Turn by Turn
Navigation
Dynamic POI
Finder
Real time
Traffic
Information
3D
Navigation
with Video
Support
Automotive Apps: From Car Sharing to Diagnostics to EV’s, Apps for
Cars are becoming a Value Added Development
15
On Board Computers for Electric Vehicles – Developments like Nissan Leaf IT
System, Better Place Autos Highlight the Importance V2G and V2I Communication
The electric car has an intelligent brain
An integrated IT support system
constantly collects data
from various electric car users
A back-end service center provides information to users and also analyzes
driving patterns among others
This brain is wirelessly connected to an IT Server
This backend server also interfaces with utilities to
manage grid impact and also informs the user
about the best time for recharge
Nissan Leaf IT System
Better Place AutoOS
exam
ple
exam
ple
Intuitive and sophisticated software scan various
vehicle parameters and ensure optimum vehicle
performance
This brain is the onboard computing
platform
16
Steering
Short List of New and Evolving Technologies (in-side Vehicle)
Power Train Interiors & Acoustics
Others Power
Systems Chassis
Active Front Steering
Steer By Wire
Braking
HBS+EVP
Brake by Wire/ EMB
Engine
Electric Motors – PMM/ Induction/
SR/ In-wheel, Hub Motors
E-Engine
Gearbox
Integrated transmission
with differential
In-wheel motors w/o transmission
Batteries
Lithium Ion + Lead Acid for SLI
(Optional)
P-Electronics
Stepped DC/DC, DC/AC
Converters, Inverters
Advanced BMS
16-32-bit "-controllers,
IGBTs, MOSFETs
Charging unit/equipment
Harness
12V/ 300-440V
CAN/TT-CAN/Flex Ray
Cockpit
Battery SOC, Temperature
Indicator
Charging Systems Indicator-Locators\
Motor Vehicle Speed, Distance
Calculator
NVH
High Frequency Isolators
Sound Generators
E-Systems
eHVAC Systems (Electric
Compressors)
Electric Water Pump
Emerging (new) Technologies
Evolving Technologies
Legend:
Range Extender Module
Others
Electric Axle and E-AWD
Electric Corner Module
Integrated Battery Modules
Telematics
LED Lighting
Cooling systems
17
Examples of Electrical Products Worth Considering
MSD Plug
Assembly MSD Base Assembly
Bulk head Battery Disconnect Units
Travel Cord Set
(CCID)
Charge Station Receptacle
Source: Pictures Lear
Specialist Plug and Inlets
POWER
ELECTRONICS
• H.V. Battery
Monitoring System
• Traction Inverter`
CHARGING SYSTEMS
• Wall-Mount Cord Set
• On-Board Chargers
• Off-Board Chargers
POWER DISTRIBUTION
• Manual Disconnect
• Connection Systems
• Battery Disconnect unit
Other Products
M35F-18 18
Contacts
Sarwant Singh
Practice Director
Automotive & Transportation
P : +44 207 915 7843
Email : sarwant.singh@frost.com
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