Sacred & Secular Religion and Politics Worldwide Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart.
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Sacred & SecularReligion and Politics Worldwide
Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart
StructureI. Theories of secularization
Religiosity & existential security
II. Research designIII. Evidence
Comparisons by type of society Failure of religious market theory in post-Communist
nations Demographic patterns & religiosity
IV. Conclusions Advanced industrial societies have become steadily more
secular during the last 50 years Yet the world as a whole has more people with traditional
religious beliefs than ever before
Book Contents List of Tables and Figures
Preface and Acknowledgments
PART I: UNDERSTANDING SECULARIZATION
1. The Debate About Secularization and Religion
2. Measuring Secularization
3. Comparing Secularization Worldwide
PART II: CASE STUDIES OF RELIGION AND POLITICS
4. The Puzzle of Religiosity in the United States and Western Europe
5. Religion and Politics in the Muslim World
6. A Religious Revival in Post-Communist Europe?
PART III: THE CONSEQUENCES OF SECULARIZATION
7. Religion, the Protestant Ethic, and Moral Values
8. Religious Organizations and Social Capital
9. Religious Parties and Electoral Behavior
CONCLUSIONS
10. Secularization and its Consequences
Select Bibliography
I:Theories of secularization
Max Weber – Enlightenment Rationality
The loss of faith
Emile Durkheim - Functionalism
The loss of purpose
Stark and Finke - Religious market theory
“After nearly three centuries of utterly failed prophesies and misrepresentations of both present and past, it seems time to carry the secularization doctrine to the graveyard of failed theories, and there to whisper ‘requiescat in pace’” Stark and Finke. 2000. Acts of Faith.
Public ‘demand’ for religion is constant Supply-side competition among clergy energizes religiosity Religious participation explained by religious pluralism and freedom of religion
Theory of secularization & security
A#1Societies differ in
levels of basic human
security
A#2Societies
differ in theirpredominant
religious culture
Religious values
EgImportance of religion
Importance of God ReligiousParticipation
EgAttend religious servicesDaily prayer or meditation
Religious Political Activism
Eg Member religious groups
Support religious party
Religious beliefs
EgWithin each religion
Moral attitudes
Demographic trends
H1
H2
H3
H4
H5
II. Research design?
World Values Survey 1981-2001
Included in the WVS
Included (76)Not yet included (112)
Classification of societiesCatholic
(28)
Protestant
(20)
Orthodox
(12)
Muslim
(13)
Eastern
(6)
Post
industrial
Eg Austria, Belgium, Ireland, Italy
Eg Australia, Britain, Finland, Germany, US
Industrial Eg Argentina, Croatia, Mexico, Poland
Eg Estonia, Latvia
Eg Belarus, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania
Eg Turkey, Bosnia-Herzegovina
Eg South Korea, Taiwan
Agrarian Eg Dominican Rep, El Salvador, Peru
Eg South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda
Eg Armenia, Moldova
Eg Algeria, Egypt, Indonesia, Nigeria
Eg China, India, Viet Nam
Sources:Type of predominant religion: CIA World Factbook; Type of society: HDI UNDP
Measures
INDIVIDUAL RELIGIOUS PARTICIPATION
Apart from weddings, funerals and christenings, how often do you attend religious services?
How often do you pray to God outside of religious services?
COLLECTIVE RELIGIOUS PARTICIPATION
Do you belong to any religious or church organizations?
Do you do any unpaid voluntary work for religious or church organizations?
Do you spend time with people at your church, mosque or synagogue?
RELIGIOUS VALUES
Irrespective of whether you go to church or not, would you say you are a religious person?
Do you belong to a religious denomination?
Do you get comfort and strength from religion?
How important is God in your life?
How important is religion in your life?
RELIGIOUS BELIEFS
Do you believe in heaven?
Do you believe in hell?
Do you believe in life after death?
Do you believe people have a soul?
III: Evidence
Measures of religious participation
Frequency of prayer
7654321
Fre
quen
cy o
f rel
igio
us p
artic
ipat
ion
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Religious culture
Other
Eastern
Muslim
Orthodox
Protestant
Roman catholic
Rsq = 0.7904
Zim
Yug
Viet
Ven
US
GB
Ukr
Uga
Sp
SAfr
Slovk
Rus
Por
Pol
Phil
Neth
Mex
Lux
LithJor
Jap
Ita
Ire
Iran
IceHung
Greece
Ger
Fr
FinEst
Egy
DenCzech
Cro
ChilCan
BulBela
Bng
AusArg
2333344455556
778891010111111
1313141415
17171818
202020202122
2425
2627272828
303131
3537373738
4243444444
464647
4950
5358
6060
6565
7377
7983
8990
0 20 40 60 80 100
ChinaRussia Iceland
DenmarkJapan
EstoniaViet Nam
FinlandSwedenNorwayBelarus
LatviaAzerbaijan
BulgariaArmenia
YugoslaviaCzech Rep
FranceGeorgiaUkraine
Moldova Macedonia
TaiwanHungaryUruguayGreeceBritain
LithuaniaNew Zealand
GermanyAlbania
Korea, Rep Australia
LuxembourgSwitzerland
NetherlandsSloveniaRomania
AustriaBelgiumCroatia
ArgentinaIran
CanadaChile
SpainVenezuela
Bosnia &Brazil
TurkeySlovakia
ItalyPortugal
EgyptPeru
JordanUnited States
DominicanColombiaMorocco
AlgeriaIndia
MexicoSouth AfricaEl Salvador
PolandBangladesh
IndonesiaPhilippinesZimbabwe
IrelandUganda
MaltaNigeria
Tanzania
Note: Religious participation: Q185 “Apart from weddings, funerals and christenings, about how often do you attend religious services these days? More than once a week, once a week, once a month, only on special hold days, once a year, less often, never or practically never.” The proportion who attended ‘Once a week or more.’Source: World Values Survey (pooled surveys, 1981-2001)
Religiosity by type of society
44
52
64
25
34 34
20
26
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Attend religious service atleast weekly (%)
Pray daily (%) Religion ‘very important’(%)
Agrarian Industrial Postindustrial
Religiosity & Development Religious
participation Frequency of prayer
Nations
SOCIOECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT R Sig R Sig N. Human Development Index 1998 (UNDP 2001) -.521 *** -.506 *** 73 GINI coefficient for income inequality, latest year (WDI 2002)
.426 ** .530 ** 59
Logged per capita GDP (in $US PPP), 2000 (WDI 2002) -.469 *** -.512 *** 67 % Urban population, as % of total, 2000 (WDI 2002) -.451 ** -.490 ** 65 % Rural population, as % of total, 2000 (WDI 2002) .452 ** .493 ** 65 Agricultural production (as % of GDP), 1997 (UNDP 2001)
.270 * 57
EDUCATION AND COMMUNICATIONS % Adult illiteracy rate, 1998 (UNDP 2000) .406 ** .522 ** 73 Education (Gross enrollment ratio) 1998 -.487 *** -.435 *** 73 Access to mass communications -.533 *** -.468 *** 59 HEALTH CARE AIDS cases (per 100,000 people), 1997 . 403 *** .375 *** 67 Infant mortality rate, under 12 months per 1000 live births 2000 (WDI 2002)
.600 *** 562 *** 62
Child mortality rate, under-5 years, per 1000 live births 2000 (WDI 2002)
.604 *** .608 *** 64
Access to an improved water source (% pop) (WDI 2002)
-.481 ** -.507 * 43
Immunization (against measles, % of children under 12 months) (WDI 2002)
-.583 ** -.455 ** 64
Doctors (per 100,000 people), 1993 (UNDP 2001) -.582 *** .708 *** 66 DEMOGRAPHICS Population growth (annual %) (WDI 2002) .548 *** .742 *** 65 Life expectancy at birth, total years, 2000 (WDI 2002) -.535 *** -.454 *** 64 Population ages 0-14 (% of total) (WDI 2002) .607 *** .722 *** 64 Population ages 65 and above (% of total) (WDI 2002) -.557 *** -.743 *** 64
Trends in belief in God 1947-2001Ref Gallup polls & WVS
Nation 1947 1968 1975 1981 1990 1995 2001 Change b. Sig. (P)
Sweden 80 60 52 38 48 46 -33.6
-.675 .009
Netherlands 80 79 64 61 58 -22.0
-.463 .020
Australia 95 80 79 75 75 -19.9
-.379 .007
Norway 84 73 68 58 65 -18.9
-.473 .018
Denmark 80 53 59 62 -17.9
-.387 .023
Britain 77 76 73 72 61 -16.5
-.461 .021
Greece 96 84 -12.3
-.364 -
West Germany 81 72 68 63 71 69 -12.0
-.305 .169
Belgium 78 76 65 67 -11.2
-.487 .145
Finland 83 83 61 73 72 -10.8
-.296 .167
France 66 73 72 59 57 56 -10.1
-.263 .162
Canada 95 89 91 85 88 -7.2
-.387 .075
Switzerland 84 77 77 -7.2
-.277 .111
India 98 93 94 -4.0
-.231 .275
Japan 38 39 37 44 35 -3.0
-.016 .935
Austria 85 78 83 -1.9
-.097 .700
Italy 88 82 82 88 -0.1
.039 .873
United States 94 98 94 96 93 94 94 0.4 -.027 .533
Brazil 96 98 99 3.0
.056 .152
ALL 10 1947-2001 85 72 -13.5
-.315 .003
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Belgium Den France GB
Germany Greece Ire Italy
Lux Neth NI Portugal
Spain
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
1970 1980 1990
year
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Trends in European church attendance, 1970-2000Source: Eurobarometer annual surveys
Religious participation by cohort
Cohort of birth
1977-19841967-19761957-19661947-19561937-19461927-19361917-1926
Me
an
fre
qu
en
cy o
f a
tte
nd
ing
re
ligio
us
serv
ice
s
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
Type of Society
Postindustrial
Industrial
Agrarian
Postindustrial
Industrial
Agrarian
% Of pop with low income, Mid-1990s (OECD)
1816141210864
Rel
igio
us p
artic
ipat
ion
6
5
4
3
2
1
Religious culture
Orthodox
Protestant
Roman catholic
Rsq = 0.3158
US
GB
Swi
Swe
Nor
Neth
Ita
Ire
Hung
Greece
Ger
Fr
Fin
Den
Can
Belg
Aus
Austl
Religion & economic inequality
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
Lowes
t 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Highes
t
Pray daily Religion 'very' important
Religiosity & household income, postindustrial societiesSource: WVS 1981-2001
Annual population growth rate (%), 1975-1997
543210-1
Impo
rtanc
e of
relig
ion
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
Type of Society
Agrarian
Industrial
Postindustrial
Rsq = 0.5882
Zim
Viet
Ven
Uru
US
Uga
Slovk
Rus
PolPeru
NZ
Mol
Malta
SKor
Jor
Jap
ItaIre
Iran
Indonesi
India
Ice
Ger
Geo
Fr
ElSal
Egy
Den
Czech
Cro
China
Chil
Can
Bul
Braz
Belg
Bng
Aze
AusAustl
Arm
Alg
Alb
Religion & demographic trends
(Source: World Bank 2003)
IV: Conclusions
Conclusions
1. Virtually all advanced industrial societies are moving towards more secular orientations.
2. Yet the world as a whole now has more people with traditional religious beliefs than ever before
3. The religion gap becomes increasingly salient on the global agenda, yet the consequences for international conflict remain unclear.
Further details/chapters: www.pippanorris.com
Importance of God
9876543
Re
ligio
us
part
icip
atio
n
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
Religious culture
Eastern
Protestant
Roman catholic
Rsq = 0.7537
US
GB
Sw i
Sw e
Sp
NorNZ
Neth
LuxJap
Ita
Ire
Ice
Ger
Fr
Fin
Den
Can
Belg
Aus
Austl
Religiosity among
postindustrial nations
Failure of market theoryPost-communist societies
Human Development Index 1998
.9.8.7.6
Impo
rtan
ce o
f God
sca
le
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Religious culture
Muslim
Orthodox
Protestant
Roman catholic
Rsq = 0.4264
Ukr
SlovSlovk
Rus
Rom
Pol
Mol
Mac
Lith
Lat
Hung
Geo
EstCzech
Cro
Bul
Bela
Aze
Arm
Alb
Low -- Religious pluralism -- high
.7.6.5.4.3.2.1
Impo
rtan
ce o
f God
sca
le
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
Religious culture
Muslim
Orthodox
Protestant
Roman catholic
Rsq = 0.0133
Ukr
SlovSlovk
Rus
Rom
Pol
Mol
Mac
Lith
Lat
Hung
Geo
EstCzech
Cro
Bul
Bos
Bela
Aze
Arm
Alb
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