Risk Assessment for Umm Qais Archaeological Site

RISK ASSESSMENT FOR UMM QAIS ARCHAEOLOGICAL SITE

This study was prepared during a Master course in Preventive Conservation.Department of Conservation and

Management of Cultural ResourcesFaculty of Archaeology and Anthropology

Yarmouk University

TABLE OF CONTENT

1. Introduction2. Historical overview Umm Qais3. Risk Assessment 4. Why Risk Assessment5. Risk assessment Methodology6. Risk assessment Term and Concepts7. Types of Risks Threating Umm Qais

1- INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION

Jordan is a very rich country of archaeological sites, It is like an open museum.

Over the history this region was invaded and governed by many forces.

Evidences of settlement of Hittites, Egyptians, Israelites, Assyrians, Babylonians, Persians, Greeks, Romans, Arab Muslims, Christian Crusaders, Mameluks,, and finally the Ottoman Turks were found in different locations in Jordan.

2- HISTORICAL OVERVIEW

UMM QAIS - GADARA

Umm Qais is situated 110 km north of Amman (378 m above sea level) ,with a magnificent view over the Yarmouk River, the Golan Heights, and Lake Tiberias.This town was known as Gadara, one of the most brilliant ancient Greco-Roman cities of the Decapolis.

GADARA IN THE DECAPOLIS LEAGUE The Decapolis was a group

of ten cities on the eastern frontier of the Roman Empire, all Decapolis cities was located in the modern Jordan except Damascus.

The word Decapolis is a Greek word means the ten cities (Deka : ten, polis : cities).

UMM QAIS

Archaeological remains at Umm Qais site denote that it was an important and strategic site for at least three great Empires that dominate this area in the past.

The main remains at the site are from the Greek, Roman, and Ottoman empires.

3- RISK ASSESSMENT

Risk assessment is a part of risk management.

There is no one single definitions of risk assessment, it depends on the context under consideration.

It also can be defined as a scientific and mathematical probability of the possible risk in certain activities or at certain places.

.

Generally

Generally it means the determination of

qualitative and quantitative value of risk

related to a concrete situation and a

recognized threat.

It is essentially a ‘what could happen?’ scenario using statistics from many different sources including prior statistics, environmental issues including weather patterns and fault lines. along with many other sources to assess a scientific and mathematical value of the possibility that a certain or harmful event may occur.

4- WHY RISK ASSESSMENT FOR UMM QAIS

WHY RISK ASSESSMENT FOR UMM QAIS

As all archeological sites in Jordan and all over the world, Umm Qais is threatened by many risks from various types.These risks are increasing over the time, it had degraded many values of the site.-If not studied and managed as soon as possible, these risks will definitely continue to cause a great deal of damage to the site and it’s elements.

Who Will Take It

Risk assessment results enable the decision makers including the site manager and authorities in responsibility (DoA) to recognize the types and magnitudes of risks threating the site, in order to take right action towards the protection of the site.

5- RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY

Priority at Limited ResourcesRegardless, the allocated amount of money, it is impossible to undertake all recommended actions towards the protection and preservation of the site.

These results will also assist in arranging priorities and considering the most needed action.

Risk Assessment Phases

Phase One

Phase Two

Identifying Risks.Assessing The Magnitude of

Each RiskIdentifying possible prevention,

Mitigation and Controlling Strategies and

Recommendations

RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGYThe work will be divided into two main Phases.

Phases to Whom

The work will be divided into two main Phases.1. First Phase will deal with the identification of

risks and assessment of their magnitudes.2. Second Phases will deal with the identification

of prevention, mitigation and/or controlling strategies and recommendation to be presented to the authorities responsible for the site.

note:Not all risks can have controlling strategies also the efficiency of the proposed strategies will vary according to some limitations related to many human(trained staff),technical(equipments & technology) and economical resources.

What parts or elementsThe site will be studied in general as one unit, also it will be divided into site elements or features.The major and prominent elements will be studied in details.

MAIN SITE ELEMENTS1. Theaters (Greco-Roman period)2. Vaulted Shops 3. Nymphaeum4. Roman Baths Complex5. Tombs 6. The Western Gate\Gate of Tiberias7. The Terrace 8. Centralized Church 9. Living Quarters (Ottoman period)

MAP OF UMM QAIS WITH THE MAIN SITE ELEMENTS

6- RISK ASSESSMENT Term and Concepts

RISK ASSESSMENT Term and Concepts

Three major concepts describing and assessing the condition and vulnerability will be introduced in this study, Disturbances, Threats and Risks.

Disturbance Threat Risk

Disturbance: (إختالل) is a detectable negative effect on the site or site element by natural forces or human activities (Mega-J Guidelines).

Threat: (تهديد) is a detectable phenomenon, whether natural forces or human activities, that appears to predict a future disturbance to a site or element. Threat can also be phenomena that are causing ongoing disturbances to a site or element and that are predicted to continue to negatively affect the site or element into the future (Mega-J Guidelines).

Risk: (خطر) is the probability of a certain agent of deterioration to occur within a certain timespan that may harm the aspects valued by human beings. The actual damaging effect of the harmful event or process is related to its intensity and to the vulnerability of the heritage place or component. The probability that a certain kind of damage is realized, e.g. the probability of fire

7- TYPES OF RISKS THREATING UMM QAIS

RISKS THREATING UMM QAIS Risks can be categorized into three

main categories : Natural Risks Human and Social Risks Other(Technical, Organizational and

Managerial) Risk

SI Risk Category Risk Occurring probability1-1  

Natural Risks

Earthquake  1-2 Volcanoes  1-3 Natural Fires  1-4 Storm, Flood  1-5 Heavy rain  1-6 Insects & birds  1-7 Weathering

(Pollution, humidity, Acid rain) 

1-8 Weathering (salt)  1-9 Weathering (bio-deterioration)  2-1  

Human & Social Risks

Over visiting  2-2 People in site  2-3 People around site  2-4 Terrorism  2-5 Unsympathetic  2-6 Overdevelopment  2-7 Vandalism-theft  2-8 Armed conflict  2-9 Traffic  

  ……………  3-1  

Other Risks

 Technical Risks

Available technology  3-2 Material availability  

  …………….    ………………  

3-3  Organization external Risk

Authorization  3-4 Fund & Investment  3-5 Priorities changes  

  …………..  3-6 Managerial

RisksExperiences  

3-7 Adequate team    …………………………….  

NATURAL RISKS

Is caused by the effect of the nature and the environment on the site as a whole unit and / on the site elements and materials composing site elements.

Some of natural risks are predictable such as heavy rain but most of them are not, like earthquake, volcanic eruptions.

Most of natural risks are unpreventable, and if it occur a great damaging impact on the site.

A set of mitigation strategies, polices and recommendations can be developed to eliminate the devastating effect of natural risks.

HUMAN AND SOCIAL RISK Including

Over visiting People in site People around the site Terrorism Unsympathetic Vandalism- theft Armed conflict Traffic

OTHER RISKS Mainly

Technical Risks Available technology Material availability

Organizational external risks Authorization Fund and investment Priorities change

Managerial risks Experience Adequate team ………….