RIMS Update - Best Practice: Traffic Count Estimation
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RIMS Best Practice:Traffic Count Estimation
2012 Road Asset & InformationManagement Forum
Ministry of TransportStuart Badger
Acknowledgements
MWH New ZealandFergus Tate
Traffic Count Estimation:
research result is a proposed traffic monitoring framework that significantly
improves the overall accuracy and efficiency (and therefore value for
money) of typical traffic data collection regimes
Proposed Traffic Monitoring Framework
• creation of a traffic link model• core annual monitoring sample • rotational sample (80/20)• Linking estimates
•Why is it important•RIMS Objective•Background
•Sampling Framework• Improving Traffic Estimates•Other Considerations
Contents
•AADT shows network traffic levels•Basis for local & national traffic monitoring•Reasons for RCAs to have accurate estimates
1. Better Decision Making2. Used in LoS & Benchmarking3. Funding Decisions
Why is it Important?
Uses of Traffic Count DataLong term planning
Network Renewal & Development
Customer Service Operational
Network traffic levels
Project planning Responding to enquiries
TM requirements
TSA & Predictive modelling
Pavement &capacity design
Development control & planning
Regulatory requirements
Safety studies & crash analysis
Loading for bridge design
Network monitoring
Traffic modelling & simulation
Project economics (BCR)
MIS
LOS & Policy Development
HCV management
1. RIMS intention: an applied guide2. Improve traffic counting outcomes and
value for money3. Presentation will cover some of the
technical research details & elements of the applied guide
RIMS Objective
Ministry of Transport Research: “Updating National Traffic Data: Stage 1 and 2 Final Report” (HyderConsulting and MWH New Zealand Limited, 2005)
Prompted due to realisation that data held across RCAs was very unreliable
Background
0% 50% 100%
50%
30%
0%
10%
40%
20%
25% 75%
Net
wor
k %
with
Cou
nts
< 5
yrs
old
% of RCAs
Data Confidence
1. Improving the efficiency of traffic counting programmes• Increasing the coverage• Improve relevancy of data collected
2. Improving Traffic Estimates• Improving the estimates on uncounted road sections• Improving the updating of estimates
3. Facilitate RCA implementation
Research Goals
1. Pilot the proposed framework in three RCAs: • Upper Hutt [urban], Southland [rural] & Hastings [mixed]
2. Nation-wide survey of traffic monitoring practices in RCAs.
Latest Work
• creating a traffic link network from the spatially referenced RAMM database
• fitting the proposed stratified sampling method to this network
Approach
1. Create Spatial Network2. Aggregate sections that carry the same traffic 3. Relate sections subject to the same growth
effects (parent/child)• Maximises network coverage• Optimises size of sampling framework
Traffic Link Network / Model
RAMM Cway id: 1949
RAMM Cway_id: 1952
Node 2000 Node 2001 Node 2003 Node 2004 Node 2007
RAMM Cway_id: 1953
RAMM Cway id: 1950
RAMM Cway id: 1951
Node 2005Node 2006
Legend: RAMM C_way section node point
RAMM Cway id: 1949
RAMM Cway_id: 1952
T.Link_id: 949 T.Link_id: 1950 T.Link id: 1951
Node 2000 Node 2001 Node 2003 Node 2004 Node 2007
RAMM Cway_id: 1953
RAMM Cway id: 1950
RAMM Cway id: 1951
Node 2005Node 2006
Legend:Node point derived from Spatial model RAMM C_way section node point Combined spatial and RAMM C_way section node point
0%
80%
60%
100%
40%
20%
Size
of T
raff
ic L
ink
Mod
el
RCA
Two distinct needs for traffic count data. • monitoring of travel activity, at a local, regional, or national level• determining traffic volumes and travel on individual roads
1. core sample - for monitoring travel activity2. rotational sample - to cover the road network.
Sampling Framework
National Traffic Database Project - Dr M K Mara developed a sampling framework to estimate the total vehicle travel within an RCA, to a given level of precision.
Core Sample
0% 60% 100%
B5
15,000
0
5,000
20,000
10,000
40% 80%
ADT
Proportion of Links
90%
B4 B3 B2 B1
Nominal Precision
Hastings District Council
+/-10% +/-5%AA
DT
Qua
ntile
<40% 2 7
40-60% 3 8
60-80% 8 31
80-90% 6 23
90-100% 27 107
Total 46 175
Core Sample Size Requirements
•The aim of the rotational sample is to ensure that over time traffic data is collected on, or is applicable to, as much of the network as possible.
•Focuses on capturing majority of network VKT
Rotational Sample
RCA
Proportion of Total Vehicle Kilometres of Travel Contained in the Model
25% Model 50% Model
Hastings District Council 87% 97%
Upper Hutt City Council 86% 97%
Southland District Council 84% 95%
Rotational Sample Coverage
Sample Size vs. Network Coverage
Sample Size vs. Network Coverage
Counting approximately 17% of the traffic links p.a. would:
1. satisfy the core sampling requirements2. Cover 80% of the total vkt (two year rotational cycle),3. provide sufficient additional capacity to retain the
investment in the historic monitoring programme
Pilot Area Results
•Sections of road are linked•Approximate relationships (e.g. growth trends) can be assumed
•Linking sections can improve confidence on unmonitored sections
Traffic Estimates
Traffic Estimates
Z
Z0.95Z0.65Z
Y=0.45Z
0.2Z
Y
0.5Y
0.5Y
A B
C
1. Data use / type of data you want2. HCV Traffic3. Growth Node4. Seasonality5. Traffic modelling
Other Considerations
Traffic ModellingCapture movement patterns
• Cordons• Screen-lines
• Traffic count data is important
• Monitoring framework improves the overall accuracy and efficiency
• 3 Key foundations to strategy:• creation of a traffic link model• core annual monitoring sample of between 3% and 7% links• 2 year rotational sample (top 20% of VKT links)
• Other considerations to make• HCVs• Seasonality• Network Change• Cordons & screen-lines
Summary
Process Review
1 2 3 4
9 10 11
8 7 6 5
2 3 4
9 10 11
8 7 6 5
SpatialiseRAMM Data
3 4
9 10 11
8 7 6 5
1Update ADT estimates to same base
1 2 4
9 10 11
8 7 6 5
Homogenise network to form traffic
links
1 2 3
9 10 11
8 7 6 5
Relate Links (e.g. by ADT % or Growth
etc.)
1 2 3 4
9 10 11
8 7 6 Stratify Network
1 2 3 4
9 10 11
8 7 5Select
random sample for
CORE SITES
1 2 3 4
9 10 11
8 6 5Select 20% with highest
VKT for ROTATIONAL
SITES
1 2 3 4
9 10 11
7 6 5Substitute
sites:Core sample Historic sites Other goals
1 2 3 4
10 11
8 7 6 5
Set Frequency for Counts
1 2 3 4
9 11
8 7 6 5
Produce Programme
1 2 3 4
9 10
8 7 56
Aim to count 15-20% of your links annually
Questions?More Information?www.rims.org.nz
Matthew Rodwellmatthewr@hdc.govt.nz
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