Rick Kramer –Jos van Schijndel –Henk Schellen

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Rick Kramer –Jos van Schijndel – Henk Schellen

Contents

• Introduction

• Inverse modeling concept

• Optimization procedure

• Tested models

PAGE 121-10-2013

• Tested models

• Validation

• Conclusions

Department of the Built Environment, unit BPS

Introduction: problem statement

Three problems regarding current modeling and simulation approach:

i. Long simulation run timeDue to long simulation period (In climate change projects: years 2000 - 2099 with time step 1h), combined with detailed physical models.

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ii. Detailed modeling of the buildings requires much effortThe monumental buildings are old and protected: blueprints are hard to findand destructive methods to obtain building material properties are often not allowed.

iii. No easy characterization of the indoor climate nor an easy characterization of the energy performance possible

Department of the Built Environment, unit BPS

Introduction: objective

Objective:

The successful application of inverse modeling on a simplified hygrothermal building model.

PAGE 321-10-2013Department of the Built Environment, unit BPS

Inverse modeling concept

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Inverse modeling concept

measured data

simulation

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optimize model

Optimization algorithms

• Optimization algorithms:

• Global Search (local solver from many points) ~hrs

• Pattern search (direct search / gradient free) ~min

• Genetic Algorithm (stochastic / least accurate) ~sec

• Fmincon (gradient based, local solver) ~sec

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• Findings:

• First use GA to narrow down solution space efficiently, then pattern search for thorough

searching, and fmincon for fine-tuning or checking.

Department of the Built Environment, unit BPS

State Space: fast optimization

• Global optimization algorithm PatternSearch:

⇒ Direct search type that is suitable for discontinuous and non-smooth solution spaces

⇒ In combination with state space model: fast optimization process

Department of the Built Environment, unit BPS PAGE 721-10-2013

Every dot represents a 1 yearbuilding simulation

Thermal models

Literature review on simplified building models:Kramer, R., van Schijndel, J., & Schellen, H. (2012). Simplified thermal and hygric building models: A literature review. Frontiers of Architectural Research, 1(4), 318–325.

PAGE 821-10-2013Department of the Built Environment, unit BPS

Thermal models

Literature review on simplified building models:Kramer, R., van Schijndel, J., & Schellen, H. (2012). Simplified thermal and hygric building models: A literature review. Frontiers of Architectural Research, 1(4), 318–325.

PAGE 921-10-2013Department of the Built Environment, unit BPS

Used building: Castle of Amerongen

• Castle of Amerongen (Amerongen, Netherlands)

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*22

Department of the Built Environment, unit BPS

King’s chamber

Thermal models: performance

King’s chamber

model # MSE [°C2] MAE [°C] FIT [%]

1 n.a. n.a. n.a.

2a n.a. n.a. n.a.

2b - - -

3a 4.05* 1.72* 54.57*

3b 0.86 0.72 79.00

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3b 0.86 0.72 79.00

4a 0.63 0.61 82.11

4b 0.91 0.74 78.43

5a 0.95 0.76 84.35

5b 1.00 0.78 83.94

6a 0.96 0.76 84.29

6b 0.69 0.65 86.68

* without fixed temperature

Department of the Built Environment, unit BPS

Thermal models: best thermal model

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• States (3rd order)

• Envelope (Cw)

• Indoor air (Ci)

• Interior part (Cint)

Department of the Built Environment, unit BPS

Thermal models: best thermal model

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• Inputs

• Temperature outdoor (Te)

• Constant temperature (Tfixed), e.g. ground contact

• Solar irradiation

Department of the Built Environment, unit BPS

Thermal models: best thermal model

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• Physical interpretation of Gfast

• Transmission through glazing

• Heat loss by ventilation / infiltration

Department of the Built Environment, unit BPS

Hygric models

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Hygric models: performance

King’s chamber

model # MSE [Pa2] MAE [Pa] FIT [%]

1 4712 56 82.24

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2 4440 51 82.76

3 3023 45 85.77

4 3016 45 85.79

Department of the Built Environment, unit BPS

Hygric models: best hygric model

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• Specifications of model:• 2 states (2nd order): envelope, air;• 4 parameters (parameter is Gx/Cx);• 1 input (Pe).

Department of the Built Environment, unit BPS

Validation

The validation consists of:

• Multiple buildings assessment (1 of 10 in this presentation)

• Residual analysis

• Uncertainty analysis (see *)

• Sensitivity analysis (see *)

PAGE 1821-10-2013Department of the Built Environment, unit BPS

* Kramer, R. (2012). From Castle To Binary Code: the application of inverse modeling for the prediction and characterization of indoor climates and energy performances. University of Technology Eindhoven.

Validation: Saint Bavo’s cathedral

Saint Bavo’s Cathedral (Gent, Belgium)

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South transept

Validation: Saint Bavo’s cathedral

Short-term dynamics:Long-term dynamics:

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Validation: Saint Bavo’s cathedral

Residuals’ (ɛ) probability distribution:

ɛ = Tisim - Timeas

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Validation: Saint Bavo’s cathedral

Residual analysis:

• whiteness test shows correlation between residuals

• Too much auto-correlation = missing inputs or missing error model

• An error model is lacking so auto-correlation is meaningless

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• An error model is lacking so auto-correlation is meaningless

• independence test shows correlation between residuals and inputs

• Too much cross-correlation = influence of inputs modelled incorrectly

Validation: Saint Bavo’s cathedral

Residual analysis: independence test shows correlation between residuals and inputs

PAGE 2321-10-2013Department of the Built Environment, unit BPS

1. State Space modeling is very suitable for inverse modeling of free-floating monumental buildings.

2. Developed hygrothermal model performs excellent for most cases (Goodness of Fit > 80%).

Conclusions

3. Identified parameters are effective, not apparent values and are a ratio Gx/Cx: verification is difficult.

PAGE 2421-10-2013Department of the Built Environment, unit BPS

Thank you!

Rick Kramer, MSc

Tel +31 40 247 5613

R.P.Kramer@tue.nl

Jos van Schijndel, PhD

Henk Schellen, PhD

Validation: Castle Keukenhof

• Castle Keukenhof’s loft (Lisse, Netherlands)

PAGE 2621-10-2013Department of the Built Environment, unit BPS

loft

Validation: Castle Keukenhof

PAGE 2721-10-2013Department of the Built Environment, unit BPS

Rain leakage?

Modeling approach for solar irradiance even suitable for lofts (tilted roofs)

Validation: Castle of Amerongen

• Castle of Amerongen’s washing room (Amerongen, Netherlands)

PAGE 2821-10-2013Department of the Built Environment, unit BPS

washing room

Validation: Castle of Amerongen

No fixed vapour pressure node

Physical interpretation:

Washing room is adjacent to canal

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With fixed vapour pressure node

Department of the Built Environment, unit BPS

Washing room is adjacent to canal

Increased moisture level possibly due to:

- moisture flow through walls- recent flooding

Thank you!

Rick Kramer, MSc

Tel +31 40 247 5613

R.P.Kramer@tue.nl

Jos van Schijndel, PhD

Henk Schellen, PhD

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