Resource Assessment using GeoX Intro to GeoX PPM GEOX FINAL.pdf · 2006. 3. 11. · Intro to GeoX 22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop Creating models in GeoX
Post on 01-Jul-2021
4 Views
Preview:
Transcript
1
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Resource Assessment Resource Assessment using using GeoXGeoX
Coco Sta. AnaDepartment of Energy
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
OUTLINEOUTLINEGeoXData requirementsResource assessment basicsIntro to GeoXgProspectRgPlayR
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
OUTLINEOUTLINEBackground of GeoX in DOEGeoXData requirementsResource assessment basicsgProspectRgPlayRgPortfolio
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Background of GeoX in DOEBackground of GeoX in DOE
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
v4.6
v5.01v4.7
v5.03v5.2*
PhilPRA PhilPRO
PPM
~1998
v4.6
Upgrade history
Client/server version
* For uploading
2
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
DOE License3 simultaneous user licenses
MaintenanceLocal system administratorTechnical support from Geoknowledge
Background of GeoX in DOEBackground of GeoX in DOE
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
GeoXGeoXRisk, Resource and economic Value (RRV) assessment workbench
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
GeoXGeoX
gPlayR gProspectR gFullCycle
DBgPortfolio
Excel, Spotfire etc.
Analysis Exportand Import
gField
gDiscovery
gProfile
Source: Geoknowledge
GeoXTools
gScenariogAggregate
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Data requirements in resource Data requirements in resource assessment (using GeoX)assessment (using GeoX)
Cultural and geological data Resource classification systemRisk modelOther cultural data (e.g., lithology, environment)
Volume parameters (e.g. GRV, NTG)Reservoir parameters (e.g. FVF, GOR)
3
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Resource assessment basicsResource assessment basics
GeoX Reservoir Parameters
GeoX Volume Parameters
Calculated
Areal closure x Reservoir thickness x Geometric
factor
Net to gross ratio
Gross rock volume*
Net rock volume*
Porosity x Trap fill x Hydrocarbon saturation x
Gas fraction
In Place Volumes: Accumulation size:OilNon-associated Gas(Associated Gas)(Condensate)
1/Formation Volume Factor Oil1/Formation Volume Factor GasGORCGR
Recovery Rate OilRecovery Rate Gas
Recoverable volumes
x
xx
x
*Can also be input directly
From 2000 PhilPRA seminar by Exploration Options AS and Geoknowledge
Equation: Example of prospect analysis (unrisked)
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Resource assessment basicsResource assessment basics
Calculations are based on random choices of known values
StochasticExpected value (mean), P90 (low estimate),
P10 (high estimate)
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Resource assessment basicsResource assessment basicsEstimates and resources are given with a range of uncertainty
Cumulative probability distribution
Frequency distribution
There is 50% chance that the volume is equal to or
larger than this.
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Resource assessment basicsResource assessment basicsResource classification system
Establish a national resource inventoryOverview of the resource baseBasis for resource management
Reserves
Unmappedresources
Potentialresources
Mappedresources
2 1 3Portfolio management
4
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Resource assessment basicsResource assessment basicsEstablish a national resource classification system prior to assessment
Resource Class
Total ResourcesDiscovered Resources
Reserves Proved reserves
Developed reservesProducing Non-producing
Undeveloped reserves Unproved reserves
Probable reserves Possible reserves
Potential Recoverable ResourcesMay be developed in long termDevelopment not very likely
Undiscovered Resources Hypothetical (Mapped) Resources
Prospects Leads
Speculative (Unmapped) Resources Resources in Confirmed PlaysResources in Unconfirmed Plays
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Resource assessment basicsResource assessment basicsRisk model
Estimate the probability of making a discoveryMake the volume estimates less wrong (White, 1993)
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Resource assessment basicsResource assessment basicsEstablish risking guidelines prior to assessment
Split into prospect level and play levelExample
Factors taken from the CCOP Guidelines on Risk Assessment
PLAY FACTORS PROSPECT
Existence of reservoir faciesEffective porosityPresence of trap
Effective sealEffective source
Effective migrationRetention after accumulation
x
xx
x
x
x
x
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Resource assessment basicsResource assessment basicsPlay probability
P (Play) is 1,When the play has a technical discovery.The play is confirmed.
P (Play) lies between 0 and 1,When there is no discovery or the play
has not been tested thru drilling.The play is unconfirmed.
5
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Intro to Intro to GeoXGeoX
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Creating models in GeoXCreating models in GeoX• Log on to GeoX• Click System menu• Select Resource class editor• Select File• Create New resource class editor• Click System menu• Select Risk model editor• Select File• Create New risk model• Set as default
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
GeoX Risk ModelGeoX Risk ModelMarginal play probability (MPP)Conditional prospect probability (CPP)Probability of success = MPP * CPPDry hole risk = 1 – probability of success
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Creating analysisCreating analysisUse GeoXplorer to access and create analyses
Use the tool notebook to enter estimates
6
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
WorkflowWorkflow• Create Basin• Create Play• Create Prospect • Create Prospect
analysis
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Tool notebookTool notebookProspect descriptionResource classificationHC phase selectionVolume, reservoir and
risk inputResults
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Data entryData entry
Parameter input panel
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
gProspectRgProspectR
7
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Input dataInput data--gProspectRgProspectRVolumetric model
closurethickness
geometric factor(gross rock volume*)
net to gross ratioporositytrap fill
fraction gas of HCPVoil/gas saturation
recovery factorformation volume factor
gas-oil ratiocondensate yield
Risk modelreservoirsourcemigrationtimingtrapsealretention
HC resources
Dry hole risk
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Volumetric equationVolumetric equation
GeoX Reservoir Parameters
GeoX Volume Parameters
Calculated
Areal closure x Reservoir thickness x Geometric
factor
Net to gross ratio
Gross rock volume*
Net rock volume*
Porosity x Trap fill x Hydrocarbon saturation x
Gas fraction
In Place Volumes: Accumulation size:OilNon-associated Gas(Associated Gas)(Condensate)
1/Formation Volume Factor Oil1/Formation Volume Factor GasGORCGR
Recovery Rate OilRecovery Rate Gas
Recoverable volumes
x
xx
x
*Can also be input directly
From 2000 PhilPRA seminar by Exploration Options AS and Geoknowledge
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Risk modelRisk model• Set the risk model as default• New analyses created will
carry the new risk model• Old analyses retain the old
model
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
WorkflowWorkflow• Create Basin• Create Play• Create Prospect • Create Prospect analysis• Enter estimates• Save• Calculate
8
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Group Exercise 1Group Exercise 1• Perform prospect analysis using GeoX gProspectR.
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
ResultsResults--risk summaryrisk summary
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
ResultsResults--Recoverable resourcesRecoverable resources
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
ResultsResults--Resources diagramResources diagram
9
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
ResultsResults--Variance diagramVariance diagram
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
gProspectRgProspectR--multiple segmentsmultiple segments
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
MULTIPLE RESERVOIRSMULTIPLE RESERVOIRSMultiple components can be due to
multiple layers or faulting.
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
MULTIPLE RESERVOIRSMULTIPLE RESERVOIRSFrom NPF, Special publication no. 6
10
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Applies to gProspectRProspect level prospectivity and risk analysis
Similar mechanics as for the standard, single segment model
Calculates resources in prospects with multiple components
More than one reservoir layerDifferent but dependent HC risks and volume
uncertainties
GEOX MULTIGEOX MULTISEGMENT SEGMENT OPTIONOPTION
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
For accurate and effective evaluation of complex, multiple zone and multiple compartment prospectsFor better assessment of the prospect economics
ApplicationsApplications
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Risk tables in GeoXRisk tables in GeoXSingle segment prospect
Risk factor P (play) P (prospect | play)Existence of reservoir facies(decim 1.000Effective source (decimal) 1.000Effective porosity (decimal) 1.000Presence of trap (decimal) 1.000Effective seal (decimal) 1.000Effective migration (decimal) 1.000Retention after accumulation (dec 1.000> Marginal play probability (decim (calc.)> Conditional prospect probability (calc.)> Unconditional probability (decim (calc.)> Dry hole risk (decimal) (calc.)
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Risk levels in GeoXRisk levels in GeoX
Multiple segment prospectProspectReservoirSegment
11
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Risk levels in GeoXRisk levels in GeoX
Segment levelThe simplest multiple segment case is
a prospect with a single reservoir level and two (2) segments.
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Risk tables for multisegmentsRisk tables for multisegmentsProspect level
FactorP(common prospect)
max P(common prospect)
P(effective porosity) [decimal] 1.000 1.000P(presence of trap) [decimal] 1.000 1.000P(effective seal) [decimal] 1.000 1.000P(effective migration) [decimal] 1.000 1.000P(retention after accumulation) [dec 1.000 1.000P(existence of reservoir facies) [dec 1.000P(effective source) [decimal] 1.000 P(Total) [decimal] (calc.) 1.000
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Risk tables for multisegmentsRisk tables for multisegmentsReservoir level
Factor P(play)P(common res level | play)
P(common res level)
max P( common res level | play)
P(effective porosity) decimal 1.000P(presence of trap) decimal 1.000P(effective seal) decimal 1.000P(effective migration) decimal 1.000P(retention after accumulation) dec 1.000P(existence of reservoir facies) dec 1.000 1.000P(effective source) decimal 1.000 1.000 P(Total) decimal 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Risk tables for multisegmentsRisk tables for multisegmentsSegment level
FactorP(segment | play) P(play)
P(segment | res level) P(segment)
P(effective porosity) decimal 1.000P(presence of trap) decimal 1.000P(effective seal) decimal 1.000P(effective migration) decimal 1.000P(retention after accumulation) dec 1.000P(existence of reservoir facies) dec 1.000 1.000P(effective source) decimal 1.000 1.000 P(Total) decimal 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
12
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Enter each individual probabilities
When risking,When risking,
Risk factor P (play) P (prospect | play)Existence of reservoir facies(decim 1.000Effective source (decimal) 1.000Effective porosity (decimal) 1.000Presence of trap (decimal) 1.000Effective seal (decimal) 1.000Effective migration (decimal) 1.000Retention after accumulation (dec 1.000> Marginal play probability (decim (calc.)> Conditional prospect probability (calc.)> Unconditional probability (decim (calc.)> Dry hole risk (decimal) (calc.)
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
RESULTS OF ANALYSISRESULTS OF ANALYSISSegments
Segment Recoverable Resources (unrisked)
[R1]Ss1 (1.000)Low (90) Mean High (10)
Oil [million STB]Non Associated Gas [billion SCF]Associated Gas [billion SCFl]Condensate [million STB]
[R1]Ss2 (1.000)Low (90) Mean High (10)
Oil [million STB]Non Associated Gas [billion SCF]Associated Gas [billion SCFl]Condensate [million STB]
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
RESULTS OF ANALYSISRESULTS OF ANALYSIS
Total resources
RiskRisk Summary
P(Oil): P(Gas): P(Oil&Gas) Dry Hole Risk:
Resource Summary (unrisked prospect)-all segmentsIn place RecoverableLow (90) Mean High (10) Low (90) Mean High (10)
Oil [million STB]Non Associated Gas [billion SCF]Associated Gas [billion SCFl]Condensate [million STB]
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
gPlayRgPlayR
13
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Input dataInput data--gPlayRgPlayRVolumetric model
closureclosurethicknessthickness
geometric factorgeometric factor(gross rock volume*)(gross rock volume*)
net to gross ratioporositytrap fill
hydrocarbon saturationreservoir depthreservoir depth
number of prospectsoil/gas recovery rate
hydrocarbon probability gasoil formation volume factor
gas-oil ratiocondensate yield
Risk modelreservoirreservoirsourcesourcemigrationmigrationtimingtimingtraptrapsealsealretentionretention
HC resources
Dry hole risk
# of accumulations
Size-by-rank
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Input dataInput data--gPlayRgPlayRVolumetric model
closureclosurethicknessthickness
geometric factorgeometric factor(gross rock volume*)(gross rock volume*)
reservoir depthreservoir depthnet to gross ratio
porositytrap fill
hydrocarbon saturationnumber of prospects
oil/gas recovery ratehydrocarbon probability gasoil formation volume factor
gas-oil ratiocondensate yield
Risk modelreservoirreservoirsourcesourcemigrationmigrationtimingtimingtraptrapsealsealretentionretention
Values are taken from the
mapped prospects
From CCRS maps
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Volumetric equationVolumetric equationUnrisked play volume calculationGeoX Reservoir
ParametersGeoX Volume Parameters
Calculated
Net rock volume – as for Prospects
Porosity x Trap fill x Hydrocarbon saturation x
Gas fraction
In Place Volumes: Accumulation size:Oil,Gas, Asso.Gas,Condensate
1/FVFactor oilGORCGR
Recovery Rate OilRecovery Rate Gas
Recoverable volumes
x
x
x
From 2000 PhilPRA seminar by Exploration Options AS and Geoknowledge
Functions of Depth
PressureTemperatureZ-factorDepth floor
Reservoir depth
Number of prospects
Gas Probability
All hydrocarbon liquidsAll gasNumber of accumulations
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Volumetric equationVolumetric equationTotal Recoverable Oil in Play =
Total Recoverable Oil in Accumulation •Number of Oil Accumulations
Total Recoverable Oil in Accumulation= Closure • Thickness •Geometric Factor • Net/Gross • Ø • HS • Fill • 1/FVF oil •Recovery factor
Number of Oil Accumulations = Number of prospects •Probability of Success • Probability of Oil
From 2000 PhilPRA seminar by Exploration Options AS and Geoknowledge
14
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
WorkflowWorkflow• Create Basin• Create Play
– Highlight Play in GeoXplorer• Create Play analysis• Create Prospect
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
WorkflowWorkflow• Create Basin• Create Play
– Highlight Play in GeoXplorer
• Create Play analysis• Create Prospect• Enter play and risk
estimates• Calculate• Save
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Group Exercise 2Group Exercise 2• Perform play analysis using GeoX gPlayR.
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
ResultsResults--risk summaryrisk summary
15
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
ResultsResults-- sizesize--byby--rankrank
Number of Oil Accumulations =Number of prospects • Probability of Success • Probability of Oil
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
ResultsResults-- sizesize--byby--rank diagramrank diagram
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
ResultsResults-- sizesize--byby--rank diagramrank diagram
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements
CCOP-PPMGeoknowledgeDOE
maraming salamat po
16
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
gPortfoliogPortfolio
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Creating portfolio analysisCreating portfolio analysis• Select Portfolio in
GeoXplorer• Click File and
select New Folder• Select the folder• Right-click mouse• Select New
portfolio analysis
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Performing portfolio analysisPerforming portfolio analysis
Click Add to select the analyses for aggregation
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Performing portfolio analysisPerforming portfolio analysis
• After the selection, calculate the portfolio analysis to estimate the resources of the assets.
17
22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop
Result Result -- Portfolio analysisPortfolio analysis
top related