Research quality & data reliability b.v.raghunandan

Research Quality and Data Reliability

-B.V.Raghunandan, SVS College, Bantwal

Post-Graduate Department of Economics, St.Aloysius College, Mangalore

August 2, 2012

Research

• Advancement of Discipline• Relation between Variables• Basis for Policy Framing• Initially, divorced from market and

commercialisation• Soundly entrenched in Philosophy• Product of Thinking rather than a

product emerging from Laboratory

Trend-Changers

• Invention of a Laboratory

• Structured Research• Topical Research• Too many Assumptions• Marketable Research• Irrelevant Study• Vested Interests

Emergence of Statistics

• By the Turn of Twentieth Century• Averages, Dispersion, Correlation and Regression and their removal

from Reality• Correlation and Causation Differentiated Initially, but are treated the

Same Now• Sample was regarded with suspicion initially, but now only samples are

used• Convenience Sample

Exponential Growth of Statistics• Every Discipline Adopted It• Sample Surveys became the

Order of the Day• Convenience Sample Became

Dominant• Governments’ Information

Needs• Usage of Computers increased

the Capacity of Data Processing• Research by Pharmaceutical

Companies• More Precautions in Healthcare

and Clean Surrounding

Forecasting & Risk Management

• Probability used for Forecasting

• Standard Deviation and Beta came to be used to Measure the level of Risk

• Usage of Derivatives for Risk Management

Aftermath• Human Judgement Sidelined• Holistic Approach became

Rare• Creation of Unnecessary

Alarms• Predictions Became

Meaningless• Fear became Predominant• Medicines became Complex• Natural Immunity is lost• Unnecessary and Unwanted

Information

Dangers

• People Started Dying out of Medicines and Treatment Rather Than Due to The Ailment

• A Totally Artificial Life• Unrealistic Benchmarks of Development• Man became a Bigger Parasite• Information Did not Lead to Knowledge• Man has Become a Contradiction of Nature• Research Aimed at Enslavement People• Band Wagon Mentality

Contribution of Market• Commodities Market lead to

Incurable Inflation• Stock Market Caused Bankruptcy of

Individuals, Companies and Governments

• Popularising Unnecessary Goods and Services

• Introduction of Harmful Products• Usage of Undesirable Process of

Production• Highly Dangerous Preservatives and

Raw Materials• Cost and Profit have Priority over the

Customers• Hedonistic Culture

Perversions of Society

• People Living in a Reported World• People Losing Sense of Right and Wrong• Confusion due to Support for Contradictory Principles• Universal Presence of Prejudiced Data• Inability to Understand the Completeness of the Data• Giving Research Tag to Statistical Surveys

Questioning the Theories

• In 1973, ‘A Random Walk Down Wall Street’ by Burton G. Malkiel

• “Developments in the market are at random and unpredictable”

• “It is impossible to outperform the market without assuming additional risk”

• “past can not be a guide to the future”

Black Swan of Nassim Nicholas Taleb

• error of comparing real-world randomness with the "structured randomness”

• Impossibility of possessing all the information

• Small unknown variations in data can have a major impact

• Flawed theories based on empirical data that is insufficient

Reinventing Research & Data

• Question the Premises• Comparison of Forecasting and Actuals• Determining the Validity of Gregorian Calendar• Questioning the Length of Period of Study• Study Abandoned in Case of Availability of Insufficient Data• Holistic Approach• Reducing the Importance of Samples

Accountability of Research Institutes• Publishing Failure in Prediction• Maintaining a Track Record of Failures• Determining the Percentage of Failure on which the

Model Has to be Changed• Public Knowledge of Methodology Used• Penalty for Vested Interest Findings• Penalty for Avoidable Doomsday Prediction

Thank You