Rei-Indonesia Property Industry Prosfect 2009

Prospek Prospek Industri Properti Indonesia Industri Properti Indonesia

tahun 2009tahun 2009

Persatuan Perusahaan RealEstat Indonesia (REI)Dewan Pengurus Pusat (DPP)

F. TEGUH SATRIA

PROPERTIPROPERTI

� Perumahan

� Perkantoran� Pusat Belanja� Resort / Hotel

Subsidi

Non Subsidi

RSH

Rusunami

Landed Houses

Vertical Houses/High Rise

SEGMENTASI PASAR SEGMENTASI PASAR PERUMAHANPERUMAHAN

� ATAS

� MENENGAH

� BAWAH

2000jt

1000jt

500jt

150jt

55jt

ATAS

ATAS

MENENGAH

BAWAH

RUSUNAMI SUBSIDI & RS NON SUBSIDI

RSH SUBSIDI

RENTAL

SOCIAL

FORMALSECTOR

INFORMALSECTOR

PREDIKSI 2009 PREDIKSI 2009 –– SEKTOR SEKTOR PERUMAHANPERUMAHAN

� INDIKATOR EKONOMI◦ Subsidi: Tahun 2008 = 800 M

Tahun 2009 = 2.500 M◦ ASUMSI APBN tahun 2009

- Growth Tahun 2009 = 6,2 %

- Inflasi Tahun 2009 = 6,5 %- BI Rate Tahun 2009 = 8,5 %

10

Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Agst Sep Okt Nov Des

Tahun 2008

%

9

8

7

BI Rate tahun 2008

Low Cost Low Cost ApartmentDevelopmentsDevelopments

7

� Government of Indonesia’s Vision: New 1000 towers of low cost apartments in the next 5 years

◦ 60% in the Greater Jakarta� High rise apartment towers

◦ 40% outside the Greater Jakarta

� Walk up apartments (Low Rise/Medium Rise)

� More than 500 hectare of land bank required for these new developments

◦ Government/state land� PP 06/2006: state land selling price must be higher than NJOP

� PP 38/2008: state land selling price could be lower than NJOP as long as for low cost apartment developments

◦ Land consolidation/urban renewals

◦ Private land

Development ProgressDevelopment Progress

8

PROGRESS OF LOW COST APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM31 September 2008

I. GREATER JAKARTA

NO. LOCATION DEVELOPER Area ( ha ) TOWER UNIT

1 Pulo Gebang PT. Primaland Internusa Development 0,4 1 390

2 Cawang PT. CHD 0,5 1 731

3 Penggilingan Cakung PT. Nusuno Karya 1,1 3 444

4 Cibubur Jaktim PT. Rajawali Core Indonesia 0,46 4 471

5 Cipayung PT. Bina kualita Teknik 6,8 6 2400

6 Jl. Arjuna, Kebun Jeruk Jakbar PT. Anggana Development 0,5 1 684

7 Kebagusan, Jakarta Selatan PT. Perdana Gapura Prima, Tbk 5 5 2000

8Perumahan Modernland, Tanggerang

PT. Modernland Realty, Tbk 1,7 3 1200

9 Jl. Pegangsaan II Kelapa Gading PT. Tiara Metropolitan Jaya 4 17 6380

Development ProgressDevelopment Progress

9

NO. LOCATION DEVELOPER Area ( ha ) TOWER UNIT

10 Ciledug PT. Binakarya Jaya Abadi 0,74 1 1000

11 Pulo Gebang PT. Bakrieland Development 3 6 2300

12 Daan Mogot km.14 Jakbar PT. Inten Cipta Sakti 4,7 3 3200

13 Pulo jahe, Jatinegara, Jaktim PT. Cakra Sarana Persada 3,5 6 3070

14 Megacity PT. Mahkota Kemayoran Realty 22 68 24000

15 Pancoran Residence, Jaksel PT. Graha Reyhan Triputra 6 7 5400

16 Jababeka PT. Graha Buana Cikarang 10 20 3000

17 Apartemen Bintaro hijau PT. Bintaro Hijau Lestari 2 3 2000

18 Gading icon PT. Mahardika 3,3 6 3000

19 Pesanggrahan PT. Esta Sarana Lestari 1,7 8 1500

20 Kelapa Gading PT. Mahardika Propertindo 3 8 3200

21 Menara Latumeten PT. Anggana Margahayuland 1,1 2 1400

10

Development ProgressDevelopment Progress

NO. LOCATION DEVELOPER Area ( ha ) TOWER UNIT

22 Cengkareng PT. Reka Rumanda Agung 3,7 10 3946

23 Menara Pekayon PT. Kasama Ganda 2,4 6 2400

24 Kalibata Residence PT. Pradani Sukses Abadi 12,7 45 16100

25 PT. Satwika Permai Indah 2 4 576

26 Ciledug PT. Sari Indah Lestari 1,2 3 1200

27 Depok PT. Mahardika Propertindo 1 3 990

28 Bintaro PT. Bahama Development 1,8 3 1550

29 PT. Arsidinamika Cipta 1,4 2 864

30 PT. Bangun Megah Pratama 2 3 2990

TOTAL 109,7 258 98386

11

Development ProgressDevelopment Progress

I. OTHER CITIES

NO. LOCATION DEVELOPER Area ( ha ) TOWER UNIT

1 Batam PT. Dimas Pratama Indah 14 36 5000

2 Bandung 23 5000

� Hak pakai 25 tahun � 70 tahun� Hunian Baru� Batasan Harga Minimal ( USD 100,000 )� Batasan Jumlah per Kawasan @ tower

(max.49%)◦ POTENSI :�10.000 unit/tahun @ USD 250,000 / unit

- USD 2,500 million/tahun�Expenses/year� TAX� Penyerapan tenaga kerja� Dll… 12

KEPEMILIKAN HUNIAN UNTUK KEPEMILIKAN HUNIAN UNTUK ORANG ASINGORANG ASING

� LEGISLATIF- 200.000 Caleg @ Rp. 200 jt/caleg = 40 T- PARTAI

� PILPRES

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PEMILU 2009PEMILU 2009

Jakarta CBD Office MarketJakarta CBD Office Market

� Construction of new office buildings has been active since 2005, spurred by tenant expansions.

� Average occupancy increased from 79% in 2004 to 88% as of end April 2008.� Average base rental rates in USD increased by 4 % per year during that period.� The market is cautious due to high level of future supply of 530,000 sqm, to be

completed by end 2009.

JAKARTA CBD OFFICE MARKET CUMULATIVE SUPPLY, DEMAND, OCCUPANCY

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 08Q1 2008P 2009P

70%

72%

74%

77%

79%

81%

83%

86%

88%

90%

Cumulative Supply Cumulative Demand Occupancy Rate

Cumulative Supply, Demand (in sq.m) Occupancy Rate

Procon Indah/Savills Research, April 2008

15

� Strong consumer spending post economic crisis 1997-2001 has enticed developers to build new retail centers.

� Massive new strata title retail space completed since 2003 has push down the average occupancy from 86 % in 2003 to 78% in 2007.

� Prime shopping malls with strong retail concept and tenancy mix,however, managed to maintain beyond 90% occupancy levels

Jakarta Retail MarketJakarta Retail Market

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 08Q1 2008P 2009P

72%

74%

76%

78%

80%

82%

84%

86%

88%

Cumulativ e Supply Cumulativ e Demand Occupancy Rate

Cumulativ e Supply and Demand (in sq.m) Occupancy Rate

Procon Indah/Savills Research, April 2008

16

� New supply continues to enter the market. Total cumulative existing supply was 60,313 units at the end of March 2008, of which 95% have been sold

� Middle price segment dominated the market.

� Despite large amount of future supply, developers continue to launch new projects

� Average occupancy level decreased, but more Indonesian currently lives in strata title apartments.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009P

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Sales Rate

Cumulative Supply Cumulative Demand Sales Rate

Cumulative Supply & Demand (in units)

Jakarta Strata Title Apartment Jakarta Strata Title Apartment MarketMarket

17

� Landed residential developments remain active, evidenced by the increase of developed area as a result of new housing clusters launched.

� Tangerang/West Jakarta continued to enjoy the highest monthly take up due to better accessibility and good supporting infrastructure.

� Land price, sales rate and occupancy rate remained stable over the past 6 months.

Greater Jakarta Residential Estate Greater Jakarta Residential Estate MarketMarket

JABOTABEK RESIDENTIAL MARKET PLANNED AND DEVELOPED AREA

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 08Q1

hectares

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

Planned Area Developed Area

Propotion of Developed Area (%) Sales Rate

Procon Indah/Savills Research, April 2008

18

0

50

100

150

200

250

Hon

g K

ong

Tok

yo

Sin

gapo

re

Seo

ul

HC

MC

Sha

ngha

i

Bei

jing

Tai

pei

Han

oi

Gua

ngzh

ou

She

nzhe

n

Jaka

rta

Kua

laLu

mpu

r

Source: Savills Research & Consultancy

US$ per sq.m. net per mth.

Prime Offices Rents, 1 Jan 2008

Regional Property Market Regional Property Market OverviewOverview� Rents of office and retail space in Jakarta are considered low compared

to those located in other Asian major cities.

19

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900T

okyo

Hon

g K

ong

Sin

gapo

re

Tai

pei

Gua

ngzh

ou

Sha

ngha

i

Seo

ul

Bei

jing

HC

MC

Kua

laLu

mpu

r

Jaka

rta

Han

oi

Source: Savills Research & Consultancy

US$ per sq.m. net per mth. Prime Retail Mall Rents, 1 Jan 2008

Regional Property Market Regional Property Market OverviewOverview

20

New Trends: New Trends: Retail Center Developments Retail Center Developments Outside JavaOutside Java

� Growing middle income segment of Indonesian population

� Good potential for new retail centers in the cities outside Javawith 500,000 – 1,000,000 population

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Per

cen

tag

e

A (Above Rp2 mil/month)

B (Rp1.5-2 mil/month)

C1 (Rp1.0-1.5 mil/month)

C2 (Rp 0.7-1.5 mil/month)

D (Rp0.5-0.7 mil/month)

E (Below Rp 0.5 mil/month)

Socio-Economic Survey * in Indonesia, 2001-2006

*AC Nielsen Socio-Economic Survey is based on monthly household expenditure, not actual income.

KESIMPULANKESIMPULAN

� Memperhatikan indikator yang ada maka diprediksi industri properti Indonesia tahun 2009 akan tumbuh cukup signifikan terutama sektor perumahan, lebih khusus sub sektor perumahan bersubsidi.

� Sektor komersial, khususnya pusat belanja akan tumbuh di kota-kota sedang (500.000 – 1.000.000) baik di Jawa maupun di luar Jawa.

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KESIMPULANKESIMPULAN

� Bila kepemilikan hunian bagi orang asing bisa disetujui mendapat kemudahan, maka bisa diharapkan beberapa kota akan mendapat dampak positif yang cukup signifikan, misalnya Jakarta, Bali dan Batam.

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TERIMA KASIHTERIMA KASIH

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ersatuan Perusahaan RealEstat Indonesia (REI)

ewan Pengurus Pusat (DPP)

F. TEGUH SATRIA