Regional Air Quality Modeling Patrick Barickman, Air Quality Modeler Tyler Cruickshank, Meteorologist/Modeler Utah Department of Environmental Quality.
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Regional Air Quality Modeling
Patrick Barickman, Air Quality Modeler
Tyler Cruickshank, Meteorologist/Modeler
Utah Department of Environmental Quality
Division of Air Quality
October 23, 2003
1977 Clean Air Act Amendments• PSD (new, modified sources)• Visibility Protection Program (existing sources)
1990 Clean Air Act Amendments• Regional Haze• Visibility Transport Commissions
Address haze and visibility in all the national parks• GCVTC
1996 GCVTC Recommendations Published
1997 WRAP Established to implement the recommendations andAssist the States in creating the Regional Haze Plans
GCVTC Recommendations are also the major issues addressedin Utah’s Regional Haze State Implementation Plan due 12/31/03
• Pollution Prevention•Clean Air Corridors•Stationary Sources – regional targets for SO2 emissions•Sources of pollution in and near the Parks•Mobile – automobile emissions•Road Dust – research on the characterization and effects•Emissions from Mexico
Uniform Rate of Reasonable Progress Glide PathGrand Canyon NP - 20% Worst Days
12.0011.66 10.83 9.99 9.15 8.31 7.47 6.97
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
Year
Haz
ines
s In
dex
Uni
t:Dec
ivie
ws
Glide Path Natural Visibility Conditions Observation
Light,Waves, Energy, radiation, photons – all the same.
Our eyes see only a tiny fraction of the full radiation spectrum.The radiation spectrum is defined by wavelength.
Our eyes see different radiation wavelengths as color.
• 3 General particle size ranges in our atmosphere …
• Accumulation size particlesstay in the atmosphere for along time.
• Note, that the accumulationsize corresponds to the wavelength of visible light.
• Smaller accumulation modeparticles close to the wavelengthof blue light.
• Larger accumulation modeparticles close to the wavelength of red light.
Particle size determines the amount of scattering.
Scattering efficiency greatest when particles are the same size as the radiation wavelength.
Coarse Size
Molecular Size
Particles in the accumulation mode do the most scattering.
Less mass but more particles.
More mass but fewer particles.
Our Clean Atmosphere – Small particles= Blue Sky
Our Dirty Atmosphere … Larger particles= Grayish Sky
Particles with diameters similar to light wavelengths do the best scattering.
What are the scatterers in our atmosphere?
Molecular Size
Accumulation Size
• Molecular sizes rapidly become accumulation size.
Pollution particles enter into the accumulation mode size.
The eastern United States has bigger sulfate particles due to humidity.
Visibility depends on where you are standing and looking in relation to the sun!
Looks bright white on this side.Looks dark on this side.
Looks the same on both sides.
VOC24%
NOx19%
SO26%
PM1028%
PM2.511%
NH312%
SO437%
NO37%OC
24%
LAC10%
CM22%
Utility60%Smelters
15%
Others25%
Point 72%
Area 6%
Rx burn 0%On road 2%
Non road 16%
Wildfire 4%
1996 Inventory - 9 Transport States, All Sources
1996 SO2 Inventory
Components of Visibility Degradation on the Colorado Plateau 1989 – 1999 as Measured at 6 Locations ( 20% Worst Days )
459,017 426,795
290,882
115,29378,000
79,388
196,130
137,339
139,729
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1996 2018 Milestone
Others
Smelters
Utility
426,795
290,882
78,000
79,388
137,339
139,729
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Base Year Milestone
To
ns/
Yea
r
Others
Smelters
Utliity
17% Reduction in Point Source SO2 From 1996 to 2018 Base Year
Point Source SO2 – 1996, 2018 Base Year, 2018 Milestone
21% reduction in Point Source SO2 From the 2018 Base Year to the 2018 Milestone Inventory
Reduction in Electric Utility SO2 = 32%
SO437%
NO37%OC
24%
LAC10%
CM22%
Components of Visibility Degradation on the Colorado Plateau 1989 – 1999 as Measured at 6 Locations ( 20% Worst Days )
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
Bandelier Bryce Cyn Cynlands Grand Cyn Mesa Verde Petrified
Mean
Variation in Sulfate Contribution to Visibility Degradation During the 20% Worst Days 1989 - 1999
Western Wildfires
0
0.5
11.5
2
2.5
33.5
4
4.5
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Mil
lio
ns
of
Ac
res
Bu
rne
d
Bryce Canyon
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
SO4
OC
Canyonlands
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
SO4
OC
Grand Canyon
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
SO4
OC
Mesa Verde
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
SO4
OC
Correlation between wildfireintensity and the SO4/OCcontribution to Bext on the
Colorado Plateau.
SO4
OC
Sources:
1) Introduction To Visibility.
William C. Malm, May 1999
Air Resources Division National Park Service
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/improve/Education/IntroToVisinstr.htm
2) Improve: Annual Light Extinction Group 10, 50, 90 http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/DatawareHouse/IMPROVE/Data/SummaryData/RECONBEXT_annual.TXT
3) Projections Report for the 2018 Base Case Emission Inventory Pechan, May 2002 on WRAP emissions forum page
4) Spreadsheets for various inventory components located on the WRAP Emissions Forum page
5) Interagency situation reports for U.S. wildfires. http://www.nifc.gov/news/nicc.html
6) http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/views/
7) http://www.wrapair.org/
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