Refugees, Food Security, and Resilience in Host Communities.

Refugees, Food Security, and Resilience in Host Communities

A. Mabiso, J.-F. Maystadt, J. Vandercasteelen, and K. Hirvonen

http://www.ifpri.org/publication/refugees-food-security-and-resilience-host-communities

Jean-François MaystadtLICOS & IFPRI

Email: J.F.Maystadt@cgiar.org@jfmaystadt

IFPRI 2020 Conference (May 15, 2014)

LICOS Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance

Conflict and Food Security

• While food security has improved globally over the past decades, it remains a major problem in areas of conflict.

• Conflicts have also been found to have detrimental effects on neighboring countries

• Understanding the causes of conflict (http://www.ifpri.org/publication/building-resilience-conflict-through-food-security-policies-and-programs) and spillovers mechanisms is needed to build resilience

The burden of hosting refugees?“Major refugee movements can cause food-security problems both among the refugees themselves and in the receiving areas” (FAO 1996, sect; 15)”

Source: Mabiso et al. (2014): http://www.ifpri.org/publication/refugees-food-security-and-resilience-host-communities

A misleading correlation

Source: Mabiso et al. (2014). Left panel: raw correlation ; Right panel: net of country fixed effects.

Why is the correlation misleading?

• Correlation is not causality : Most refugeesare hosted in neighboring countries facingfood-security problems for many otherreasons

• No systematic relationship or diluted intonational statistics?

• More fundamentaly, cross-country analysis is too limited to shed light on complex interactions between refugees and hosts

• Too short-sighted view in contrast with the protracted nature of most refugee situations

Taking stock of the evidence

Key lessons learned (1)

• Although more evidence is needed, current focus on health and violence too limited

• Role of labor and good markets as adaptationmechanisms (see Tanzania, Kenya, Darfur, Uganda)

• Immediate upward pressure on nonaid prices affects food accessibility but both food aid and the incentives to produce more can have second-order effects on prices (Werker 2007, Alix-garciaand Saah 2010, Alix-Garcia et al. 2012)

• Labor supply by refugees in some cases (e.g. Tanzania) leads tolarge production increase

• Large distributional effects (Maystadt and Verwimp 2014, Kreibaum 2013, Alix-Garcia and Bartlett 2012)

• Policy objective: Strengthen adaptative capacities of the host

• Increased awareness for env. degradation should bepursued

Key lessons learned (2)

• Beyond market mechanisms, provision of localpublic goods likely to strengthen the capacities of the poor

• Little is known about the long-term impact, while that is certainly key for transitioningfrom humanitarian assistance todevelopmental efforts

• Opportunity to capitalize on investments such as improved road infrastructure and social networks(Maystadt and Duranton 2014)

• More evidence would help design appropriate solutionsto protracted refugee situations

Moving the research agenda forward

• More evidence (based on mixed methods) togeneralize findings, draw policy guidelines andunderstand the legacy of the refugee inflows

• Undertake deeper analysis of policy options to solve protracted refugee situations and toassess relative efficiency of different interventions

• Better align incentives of policymakers, practitioners, and researchers

APPENDIX

A. Mabiso, J.-F. Maystadt, J. Vandercasteelen, and K. Hirvonen

LICOS & IFPRIEmail: J.F.Maystadt@cgiar.org

@jfmaystadtIFPRI 2020 Conference (May 15, 2014)

LICOS Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance

Recent surge in displacement

Source: Mabiso et al. (2014): http://www.ifpri.org/publication/refugees-food-security-and-resilience-host-communities

Appendix - Health

Appendix – Production, transport and trade

Maystadt and Duranton (2014)

Appendix – Food and nonfood prices

Appendix - Labor