Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2
Post on 19-Jan-2015
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Commercial construction
turned around in 2012
and is expected to
continue to improve
Construction spending and its components
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Residential Nonresidential Building Heavy Construction
$ Billions
History Forecast
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
Reed total starts (3-month moving average year-over-year)
Source: Reed Construction Data
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change
Total construction spending
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Billion $, SAAR
Residential
construction
continues to
improve
Residential construction spending components
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Improvements Single-family Multifamily
$ Billions
History Forecast
Reed residential starts (3-month moving average year-over-year)
Source: Reed Construction Data
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
503-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change
New residential construction spending
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Billion $, SAAR
Residential construction spending components
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Single-Family Multifamily Improvements
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015
$ Billions
Nonresidential building
construction has struggled
lately, but is expected to
improve over the remainder
of this year and strengthen
further in 2014 and 2015
Reed nonresidential building starts (3-month moving average year-over-year)
Source: Reed Construction Data
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
353-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change
Nonresidential construction spending
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
475
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Billion $, SAAR
Nonresidential spending components
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Hotel/Lodging Office Commerical
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015
$ Billions
Nonresidential spending components
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Religious Healthcare Education
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015
$ Billions
Nonresidential spending components
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Public safety Amusement and recreation Manufacturing
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015
$ Billions
Heavy engineering
(non-building)
construction held
up best over the
last few years
Despite considerable
challenges, the outlook
for heavy engineering
construction is fairly
positive
Reed heavy engineering starts (3-month moving average year-over-year)
Source: Reed Construction Data
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change
Heavy engineering construction spending
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Billion $, SAAR
Heavy engineering spending components
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Transportation Communication Power
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015
$ Billions
Heavy engineering spending components
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Highway Water and Sewer Conservation
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015
$ Billions
Regional
economic
performance
Economic performance of the states
Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank
Economic performance of the states
Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank
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Contact information and links
Bernard M. Markstein
Office: 301-588-5190
Mobile: 404-952-3381
b.markstein@reedbusiness.com
U.S. Forecast and Commentary: http://www.reedconstructiondata.com/market-
intelligence/articles/
Blog: http://www.reedconstructiondata.com/market-
intelligence/bernie-markstein/
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