R.E. Smalley’s view of Humanity’s Top Ten Problems for the next 50 years …

R.E. Smalley’s view of Humanity’s Top Ten

Problems for the next 50 years …

1. ENERGY2. WATER3. FOOD4. ENVIRONMENT 5. POVERTY6. TERRORISM & WAR7. DISEASE8. EDUCATION9. DEMOCRACY10. POPULATION

… that was the view in 2005 … and it’s much more sobering today

EnergyFor 1010 People

The Biggest Challenge

• At MINIMUM we need 10 Terawatts (150 M BOE/day)

from some new clean energy source by 2050

• It’s got to be cheap.

• But, not with current technology.

World Energy Millions of Barrels per Day (Oil Equivalent)

300

200

100

01860 1900 1940 1980 2020 2060 2100

Source: John F. Bookout (President of Shell USA) ,“Two Centuries of Fossil Fuel Energy” International Geological Congress, Washington DC; July 10,1985. Episodes, vol 12, 257-262 (1989).

165,000 TWof sunlighthit the earth

Free!

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

OilCoa

lGas

Fission

Biomas

s

Hydro

electr

ic

Solar,

wind, g

eothe

rmal

0.5%

Source: BP & IEA

2004

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

OilCoa

lGas

Fusio

n / F

issio

n

Biomas

s

Hydro

electr

ic

Solar,

wind

, geo

therm

al

2050

The ENERGY REVOLUTION (The Terawatt Challenge)

14.5 Terawatts

220 M BOE/day 30 - 60 Terawatts450 - 900 MBOE/day

The Basis of Prosperity 20st Century = OIL 21st Century = ??

Slide from: R. E. Smalley, Rice University

35 ZJ/0.2 ZJ/yr =175 yr

19 ZJ/0.2 ZJ/yr = 95 yr

8 ZJ/0.18 ZJ/yr = 44 yr

2005 Oil consumption was 0.18 ZJ/yr = 44 yr

Remaining Oil Resources

15/86000= 0.017%

2008 Total World Energy Consumption474 EJ(1018 J = 0.5 ZJ)/yr= 133 Petawatt•hr(132.8×1015 Wh)=~15 TW

Available renewable energy

US demand for Energy

에너지

• 에너지 : 일을 할 수 있는 능력- 에너지의 종류 : 운동 에너지 , 퍼텐셜

에너지 , 화학 에너지 , 전기 에너지 , 열에너지 등

- 에너지의 단위 : J(joule) 을 사용• 일과 에너지의 관계- 물체에 일을 해 주면 에너지 증가- 물체가 일을 하면 에너지 감소

에너지 단위 -2

• 1 barrel (bbl) of crude oil = 42 gallons = 6.12 x 109 joules

• 1 MToe = million tons of oil, equivalent = 1013 joules

Commercial Energy Use & GNP

GROSS NATIONAL PROCUCT($US/CAPITA)

EN

ER

GY

CO

NS

UM

PT

ION

(106

BT

U/Y

EA

R/C

AP

ITA

)

Commercial Energy Use & GNPG

RO

SS

DO

ME

ST

IC P

RO

CU

CT

($U

S/C

AP

ITA

)

ENERGY CONSUMPTION(kW/CAPITA)

White’s Law

“Culture advances as the quantity and quality ofenergy used increases. This relationship can be

captured formally as an equation.”

C = k x E x TLeslie White, 1973

C = cultureE = energyT = technologyk = scaling (efficiency) constant

최근 국제유가 변동추이 (2003 – 2007)

(한국의 에너지 소비 석유환산)

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010YEAR

(100

0 TO

E)

에너

지

최종에너지계석탄석유도시가스전력

신재생 및 기타

U.S. LOWER-48 OIL PRODUCTION PEAKED & DECLINED

Production of a non-renewableresource (Hubbert, June 1956)

Resource DepletionHubbert (1956)

production would begin with exponential growth, then plateau, then decline (symmetrically) as in bell curve:

Annual Production Scenarios with 2% Growth Rates and Different Decline

Methods

USGS Estimates of Ultimate Recovery

Probability Ultimate Recovery(BBs)

Low(95%) 2,248

Mean (expected Value)

3,003

High(5%) 3,986

Wind Turbines

Country Windpower capacity (MW)

China 44,733

United States 40,180

Germany 27,215

Spain 20,676

India 13,066

Italy 5,797

France 5,660

United Kingdom

5,204

Canada 4,008

Denmark 3,734

Top 10 windpower capacity countries(2010)

참고 : 한국의 총 발전설비용량 76,078MW(2010)

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ren2006.png

Total renewables supply experienced an annual growth rate of 2.3% over the last 33 years, marginally higher than the annual growth of 2.2% in TPES. However, the “other” category in Figure 2 (also referred to as “new” renewables and including geothermal, solar, wind, etc.) recorded a much higher annual growth of 8.2%. Due to a very low base in 1971 and to recent fast-growing development, wind experienced the highest increase (+48% p.a.) followed by solar (+28% p.a.).

Photovoltaics: costs have declined by two orders of magnitude…

Nemet, G. F. (2006). "Beyond the learning curve: factors influencing cost reductions in photovoltaics.“ Energy Policy 34(17): 3218 - 3232.

PV system prices

The Solar Market in Kenya

–Use of solar emerged in 1980’s -lessons from two decades of experience

–Market is largely unsubsidized

the world's highest household solar ownership rate with roughly 30,000 small (20 to 100 watt) solar power systems sold per year.

Drive Train

Loss 6

Aerodynamic 3

Standby17

Engine Loss62

Fuel 100 1

9

13 Rolling 4

Braking 6

Accessories 2

Drive Train

Loss 5

Aerodynamic 11

Standby4

Engine Loss69

Fuel 100 2

5

20 Rolling 7

Braking 2

Accessories 2

Vehicle

Efficiency

Internal combustion engine

η = 1 – (Tcold/Thot)

Octane Rate

MTBE

Alternative Fuel Engine

Ethanol

Biodiesel

Advanced Vehicles

Volkswagen One-Liter Car Aptera Electric/Hybrid

Advanced Vehicles

Volkswagen L1 Diesel-Electric Car

48 MPG city/45 highway/46 combined99mph top speed, 0-60mph 14.2sec,two-cylinder, 800cc, diesel-electric hybrid engine,380kg carbon fibre and aluminium body

80 km/l on the combined cycle,39g CO2/km

Toyato Prius