R&D needs in solar photovoltaic energy conversion · IEA REWP Joint R&D Seminar, Paris, 3 March 2005. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Solar energy

IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME

R&D needs in solar photovoltaic energy

conversion

Hubert FechnerIEA PVPS

IEA REWP Joint R&D Seminar, Paris, 3 March 2005

IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME

Solar energy radiated to the earth ~ 10.000 x worldenergy demand

Photovoltaic - direct conversion of solar radiation intoelectricity

How far is the technology today?

IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME

Effi

cien

cy (%

)

Cu(In,Ga)Se2Amorphous Si:H(stabilized)CdTe

Universityof Maine

Boeing

Boeing

Boeing

BoeingARCO

NREL

Boeing

Euro-CIS

12

8

4

0200019951990198519801975

United Solar

16

20

24

28

32Three-junction (2-terminal, monolithic)Two-junction (2-terminal, monolithic)

NREL/Spectrolab

NRELNREL

JapanEnergy

Spire

NorthCarolinaState University

Multijunction Concentrators

Thin Film Technologies

Best Research-Cell Efficiencies

Varian

RCA

Solarex

UNSW

UNSW

ARCO

UNSWUNSW

UNSWSpireStanford

Westing-house

Crystalline Si CellsSingle CrystalMulticrystallineThin Si

UNSWGeorgia Tech

Georgia Tech

Sharp

Solarex Astro-Power

NREL

AstroPower

Spectrolab

NREL

•

Emerging PV

• ••• •

••• •

••

•••

•

Masushita

MonosolarKodak

Kodak

AMETEK

PhotonEnergy

Univ.S.Florida

NRELNREL

NREL

Princeton

U. Konstanz

U.CaliforniaBerkeley

Organic Cells

NREL

NRELCu(In,Ga)Se214x Concentration

Ref. Tom Surek at NREL

IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME

Cumulative installed grid-connected / off-grid PV power in the reporting countries

0

500

1'000

1'500

2'000

2'500

3'000

3'500

4'000

19921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

Inst

alle

dPV

Pow

er (M

W)

Grid-connected

Off-grid

Photovoltaic Market (IEA)

> 4 GW installed

~ 3 TWh Energy

IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME

Key playersShare of PV cell production in the reporting countries by company in 2005 (%)

Sharp (JPN)28%

Q-Cells (DEU)11%

Kyocera (JPN)9%

Sanyo Electric (JPN)8%

Mitsubishi Electric (JPN)7%

RWE Schott (DEU, USA)6%

Others (23 companies)16%

BP Solar (AUS, ESP, USA)5%

Shell Solar (DEU, USA)4%

Isofoton (ESP)4% Photowatt International (FRA)

2%

IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME

Price of PV modulesPower Modules (1976 - 2001)

1987

1981

2001

1983

1990

1976

1

10

100

0 1 10 100 1000 10000Cumulative Shipments [MWp] power modules

[2001 $]

Price of Power Modules (2001 $)

Estimate 1976 - 2001: PR = 80%± 0.4%

Estimate 1987 - 2001: PR = 77%± 1.5%

Source: Strategies Unlimited

IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME

IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME

PV cost compared to bulkpowerAssumptions:

1% annual increase in ElectricityTariffs

5% annual reduction in PV costs

Source: EU Technology Platform

IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME

IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME

IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME

Solar cells: today and future

Ref. M. Green, UNSW

IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME

Resources and potential

Ref. ISET / Czisch

The solar resource

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Australi

aAustr

iaCan

ada

Denmark

Finland

German

yIta

lyJa

panNeth

erlan

dsSpain

Sweden

Switzerl

and

United K

ingdomUnite

d States

BIPV: Potential contribution to electricity supply

IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME

PV R&D: subjects and issuesMain bottlenecks: cost, efficiency, products• Materials• Cells and Modules• System components & BIPV• Processes and manufacturing• Environmental aspects• Quality assurance and standards• Cross-cutting issues

IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME

Ingots/Wafer thickness and Cell Efficiency

320300

180 170 160 150

200240

17,5%17,0%16,5%

16,0%15,5%15,0%

14,5%14,0%

120

170

220

270

320

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201010%11%12%13%14%15%16%17%18%19%20%

Ingots/Wafer thickness (µm) Cell efficiency (in percent)

[µm] [Efficiency in %]

IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME

Technology and market

R&DBasic & applied

Products &Applications

MarketPromotion MarketsSolutions &

Manufacturing

TECHNOLOGYDEVELOPMENT

MARKETDEPLOYMENT

INDUSTRYDEVELOPMENT

Cheaper, better and new products enlarge

markets and open new segments.

Greater sales mean higher demand -greater use gives more feedback.

Technology progresses through innovation,

feedback and R&D investment.

Stimulation ofthe production

results in higher quantity and quality.

Improvements result incost reductions,

efficiency increase and enhanced applicability.

Technologycycle

Marketcycle

• Evolution not Revolution(Jeff Portmans)

IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME

PV R&D: approaches• Industry involvement• Short, medium, long-term• Continuity• Strong and dedicated effort• Roadmaps

IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME

Useful links & contact• http://www.iea-pvps.org• http://www.pvdatabase.com• http://www.epia.org• http://www.demosite.ch

Hubert Fechner, ExCo-Member IEA PVPSHead of Department of Renewable Energy Technologiesarsenal research, Giefinggasse 2, A-1210 Vienna, AustriaTel. +43 50550-6299 Email: hubert.fechner@arsenal.ac.at