PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Global Change and Antarctica Eugene S. Takle Agronomy Department Geological and Atmospheric Science.
Post on 17-Jan-2016
218 Views
Preview:
Transcript
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Global Change and Antarctica
Eugene S. TakleAgronomy Department
Geological and Atmospheric Science Department
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
gstakle@iastate.edu
ISU Biology Travel Class, 22 September 2004
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Outline
Evidence for global climate change Future atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentrations Simulations of global climate and future
climate change Role of Antartica in climate change Summary
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2004
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2004
2040
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Stabilization at 550 ppm
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
“Business as Usual”(fossil intensive)
2100
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Associated Climate Changes
Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N.
Hemisphere Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15% Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges Snow cover decreased by 10% Earlier flowering dates Coral reef bleaching
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
40% Probability
5% Probability
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
Climate Change Projected for 2100
Rapid Economic Growth
Slower Economic Growth
IPCC Summary for Policy Makers
An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system
Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate
IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, cont’d
There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities
Anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Climate Surprises
Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation (Greenland melt water)
Breakoff of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
For the Midwest Warming will be greater for winter than summer Warming will be greater at night than during the
day A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples
the probability of a heat wave Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer
now than in 1950) More precipitation Likely more soil moisture in summer More rain will come in intense rainfall events Higher stream flow, more flooding
Sub-Basins of theSub-Basins of theUpper MississippiUpper MississippiRiver BasinRiver Basin
119 sub-basins
Outflow measuredat Grafton, IL
Approximately oneobserving stationper sub-basin
Approximately onemodel grid pointper sub-basin
“Warming Hole”
TTmaxmax (JJA) (JJA)˚C
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Global warming is at least as important an issue as gay marriage or the rising cost of Social Security.
And if it is not seriously debated in the general election, it will measure the irresponsibility of the entire political class. This is an issue that cannot, and must not, be ignored any longer.
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Global warming is at least as important an issue as gay marriage or the rising cost of Social Security.
And if it is not seriously debated in the general election, it will measure the irresponsibility of the entire political class. This is an issue that cannot, and must not, be ignored any longer.Walter Cronkite12 March 2004
http://www.philly.com/mld/dailytimes/news/opinion/8159334.htm
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
What Can I Do? Conserve energy Adopt a simpler lifestyle:
– “Elegant simplicity”– “Sophisticated modesty”– “Affluence lite”
Sustainable Development:
To meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs Brundtland Commission (World Commission on Environment and Development)
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Calving of an Iceberg
9 Jan 1995 12 Feb 1995The ice shelf which formerly occupied Prince Gustav Channel and connected James Ross Island to the Antarctic Peninsula Disintegrated making James Ross Island circumnavigable for the first time in recorded history. The new iceberg calved from the Larsen Ice Shelf and measured 78 km x 37 km x 200 m thick.
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Summary Climate change is real and should be considered something
other than “tomorrow’s problem” We are committed to a warming over the next 40 years
regardless of what policy path we choose Policy decisions today will affect global warming and
associated environmental changes in the latter half of the 21st century and beyond
Consider adopting a simpler lifestyle Ice is very important to the climate
system and needs to be protected
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
For More Information
See my online Global Change course:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
Contact me directly:
gstakle@iastate.edu
top related